A Republic of China National Army F-16 (left) takes off urgently to monitor and accompany a Chinese Communist Party military aircraft as it crosses the center line in the Taiwan Strait on Feb. 9, 2020. (Courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China)
After the new U.S. administration took office, Chinese military aircraft have been disturbing Taiwan more frequently, and a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is imminent. Recently, many experts and scholars are worried about this and strongly advocate that the Biden administration should adopt a policy of strategic clarity on the Taiwan Strait issue. Confirm its commitment to the defense of Taiwan and demonstrate its military capability to defend Taiwan.
In its annual survey, the Institute for Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank, ranked a serious crisis between the U.S. and China over Taiwan as the highest level of potential global conflict for the first Time.
A new study released by Australian think tank China Matters also said Xi Jinping is determined to solve the Taiwan issue in this generation. At a global market forum, experts also warned that Taiwan is “the world’s most dangerous hot spot.
The Voice of America reported that Daniel Blumenthal, former director of China, Taiwan and Mongolia affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, presented his new book “China’s Nightmare: The Far-Reaching Ambitions of a Faltering Regime” at a seminar at the Center for Global Taiwan Studies on May 17, strongly advocating that the United States should adopt a policy of strategic clarity on the Taiwan Strait. He argued that the United States should adopt a policy of strategic clarity on the Taiwan Strait.
The only way to stop this is to affirm our commitment to the defense of Taiwan and to demonstrate our military capability to defend Taiwan,” Bu said, noting that the Chinese military has demonstrated its military capabilities, including the crossing of the center line in the Taiwan Strait by military aircraft and more provocative maneuvers in Taiwan’s airspace. Unless we can do that, the situation is all but dangerous.”
He said that the CCP’s increasing authoritarianism reflects the fragility rather than the strength of its regime, its institutional corruption, the huge debt accumulated by the economic slowdown, its geopolitical disadvantages and its aging population, etc. On the issue of the Epidemic, the CCP is showing strength to the outside world to deflect its poor performance in defending against the epidemic.
So in the short term the CCP is actually very dangerous, and the U.S. and its allies must set a clearer red line against it.
The U.S. must demonstrate the military capability to interdict the CCP’s goals and confirm its commitment to assist in Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack, according to Bu Danian. The U.S. must also communicate privately with the Chinese Communist Party from the highest levels of leadership on this issue, which is known as “high diplomacy” and is essential to prevent war.
He believes the Trump administration did a good job of mentioning the U.S. compliance with the One-China Policy while also emphasizing U.S. compliance with the Six Pledges and other commitments to Taiwan in the declassified documents, rather than standing up at the end of the meeting and reiterating routine statements to curry favor with the Chinese Communist Party.
Taiwan: The World’s Most Dangerous Hotspot
Robert Blackwell, a senior fellow at the Institute of Foreign Relations, and Philip Zelikow, a professor of history at the University of Virginia, said in a 100-page report that the Taiwan Strait crisis is deepening in the 2020s and that it “is becoming a worldwide war that could involve the United States, China, and other major countries. It is becoming “the world’s most dangerous flashpoint for a war between the United States, China, and other major nations.
They called on the Biden team to develop a strategy to achieve the U.S. strategic goal of “preserving Taiwan’s political and economic autonomy, the vitality of this free society, and the deterrence of the United States and its allies without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan.”
The report says that existing U.S. strategies are not sufficient to deter or, if necessary, respond to coercive or aggressive behavior by the Chinese Communist Party, and they recommend that the United States maintain the “one-China policy” and coordinate with Japan and other Asian allies on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, support Taiwan’s status in international organizations, sign bilateral trade agreements with Taiwan, and develop people-to-people relations. relations with Taiwan.
The report also mentions three scenarios in which the CCP might “use military means to demonstrate or establish sovereignty over Taiwan”.
One is to invade the areas around Taiwan’s control, including Taiping Island, Dongsha, Penghu, and Kinmen and Matsu.
Second, isolation of Taiwan, which is not a blockade but effective control of Taiwan’s air and sea borders.
The third is to invade Taiwan’s Home islands, including traditional encirclement and amphibious assaults, as well as air attacks and special operations.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd also published an article on the 17th, saying that Xi Jinping wants to gain “Mao Zedong-level” status within his party by capturing Taiwan, and plans to defeat the United States with military force within a decade. But Xi is overconfident and underestimates the three most important factors.
One, Taiwan’s geographic conditions are similar to those of the Netherlands and Norway, and there is a degree of difficulty in occupation.
Second, the “irreparable” damage caused by the CCP’s international political legitimacy.
Third, the unpredictability of U.S. domestic politics. While the U.S. would certainly prioritize its own interests, ignoring its longstanding democratic partners would also have an impact on its international standing.
According to an article by commentator Zhou Xiaohui, the Chinese Communist Party’s internal party and military spirit is disorganized, and the people’s confidence has been lost, especially under the current serious epidemic, and it is unknown how many people will be able and willing to serve in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait. The plan to risk diversion may not be realized.
In addition, war is not only about military power, but also about logistics. In the current Chinese economy is on the verge of collapse, after the fall of Wuhan as the logistical base of the Chinese army due to the epidemic, the Chinese Communist Party must weigh up if they want to start a war in the Taiwan Strait. In a word, if the Chinese Communist Party wants to use force to attack Taiwan to save itself from the crisis, it will only accelerate its demise.
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