China after the population cliff
“Can’t afford to give birth” and “can’t afford to grow old”
The first issue of the New Year, we talk about this important matter about the rise and fall of the country, if you are over 30 years old, you must finish reading.
No matter how reluctant we are, the day has come. 2021, China’s birth population is likely to fall below 10 million for the first Time. In the next five years, the number of people over 60 will reach 300 million, and by 2050, it will rise even further to 500 million! At that time, with a total population of 1.3 billion, the working population will be less than 700 million, more than 200 million less than today. And the population under 16 years old is only about 170 million. For every hundred people, there were more than 40 people in the labor force, and close to 40 people over the age of 60, and 13 children under the age of 16.
Many people feel that fewer people is a good thing, competition is not fierce, employment is easier, buying a house and a car, and the cost of Education for children is lower. The environment has also become better. And a large population does not mean a strong population, the U.S. population of only two or three hundred million, has dominated the world for nearly a century.
The beautiful scenario depicted above, the old Wang also aspire to. But the journey to the ideal country, will be very miserable. Optimistic estimates also need to be forty to fifty years later, China’s heavily aging demographic structure, only then may be alleviated.
Until then, you and I face a situation in which young people are consuming vigorously but in drastically reduced numbers, and the elderly population is large but not consuming vigorously. As a direct result of the dual factors, society as a whole is not consuming enough, businesses are becoming less profitable or even closing down, and government tax revenues are decreasing.
Tax revenue continues to decrease, but the scale of pension payments is rapidly increasing, the gap is getting bigger and bigger, what to do? That is the delayed retirement launched by the state last year, allowing the elderly to support themselves.
With fewer young people, will it be easier for older people to find employment? The answer is no.
Consumption decline, the number and size of enterprises are limited, and then superimposed on the machine to replace manual labor, jobs will be significantly reduced, when the time is likely to appear young people and the elderly to compete for jobs. The elderly are obviously not competitive enough, and I am afraid that a large number of people are in a state of unemployment. There is no salary income nor pension. They can only live on their previous savings.
Recent Comments