In order to fulfill the deadly task given from above, the CCP’s economic growth data has been falsified from a low level, so China’s economic growth data is completely untrustworthy. (Photo credit: SOH Synthesis)
At the end of 2020, the official statistics department of the Chinese Communist Party counted China’s economic growth reaching 2.3% in 2020. The current state of China’s economy in all aspects shows instead that it is in the doldrums or even in collapse. Many business owners say that business is getting harder and harder in these years, and the economic environment is getting worse and worse, especially in 2020, with the Epidemic closing the city in the first few months and flooding in the second few months, plus the external international environment being affected by the epidemic with a big drop in foreign trade orders, so the Chinese economy is extremely difficult in 2020. So, is this official Chinese Communist Party figure that shocked the world real? How did it come out? What is the real economic situation of China in 2020?
Veteran media personality Li Jun shares his analysis of the situation.
Exposing how China’s economic statistics are falsified
The entire economy of the United States in 2020 is negative, and except for the period when the epidemic started to pause for a little while, the whole of the United States is open, even in this case, the economic growth of the United States is negative. And China, after such a long economic pause and so much flooding, actually managed to have a 2.3% economic growth, which made the world jaw drop.
In 1998, when I was working as a media reporter in China, the economic growth target set by Zhu Rongji at that Time was 7 (7%), and the economic growth target set by Jiangsu Province at that time was 8, and the economic growth of Nanjing City was 11. Only 2.4%, the second half of the year is ready to promote economic growth, investment, etc. through various methods, the pressure is very big, but also set up a lot of work.
Just after the city government meeting, from June to September, a big flood came, and the flooding was fought until the end of September. The city government held another economic meeting, and the statistics showed that the economic growth was about 1.5%. So how to complete Nanjing’s economic growth target of 11%? If we follow this standard, the economic growth in the next three months will have to reach more than 30%. This is not possible. But the municipal party secretary at that time said: Nanjing’s economic growth of 11% is a political task, and it must be completed even if it is completed, and it must be completed even if it is not. Everyone said: this is the job of the director of statistics, only the director of statistics can complete. Sure enough, at the beginning of next year, Nanjing’s economic growth reached 11.2 to 11.3%.
At that time, I was very puzzled about this matter, because the actual growth is only about 2%, which is equivalent to a 9% hole, and next year, we still have to continue to grow, how to fill up this hole? So at that time, I knew that these figures were all “statistics”. There is a saying going around in the crowd, saying: China’s economic growth, the most credit to whom? The director of the statistics bureau.
The statistics bureau “statistics” from the bottom to start falsifying. For example, some high-tech zones are built and developed, while others collapse after a few years, but the output value of the enterprises that came in is still reported, and it has to be reported according to the growth trend requirements, if it was 100 million last year, it must be reported 110 million this year. Think about it, that high-tech zone are gone, and still reported upwards in this way. Enterprises are the same, some enterprises have closed down, but the annual output value is still reported, and every year is still growing. So the economic growth data from the low level has begun to fake, in order to complete the deadly tasks under the above, political tasks well. In this case, China’s economic data is completely untrustworthy.
Of course, these things can only first fool the domestic people; second fool foreign economic experts, they can only get such data, he does not know how these data are made. So I see that when foreign economists analyze China’s economy, none of them are right, he has no idea how the Chinese Communist Party is doing the economy, how to fake.
China’s economy in 2020 will be a huge negative growth
What exactly will China’s economy look like in 2020? I think it is a huge negative growth, should be more negative than the United States. If the US is about 6% negative, China is more than that. Although we don’t have the basis of fake data, we have our own method of reasoning, which I call “typical microeconomic logic reasoning”, that is, we look for typical micro cases to infer what the macroeconomic situation is.
We know that several major factors affecting China’s economy are: consumption, exports, real estate, foreign trade investment, fixed asset investment, etc. Let’s do some specific analysis.
First, consumption: in 2020, China’s total consumption fell by at least 20-30% year-on-year
China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s total merchandise sales in the first three quarters of 2020 were 27.3 trillion, down 7.2% year-on-year in 2019.
We can illustrate this with a case study. Every year, October 1 to October 8 is Golden Week, and the cultural and tourism sectors also count the economic data of Golden Week, because these sectors are unlikely to know the rules of the game of the statistics department, so the data they publish are relatively closer to the real data. Their statistics say that roughly 618 million people came out to travel in China during Golden Week 2020, equivalent to 79% of previous years; the total consumption during Golden Week was roughly more than 450 billion, an amount equivalent to 69% of the same period last year. In other words, during Golden Week 2020, China’s total consumption actually dropped by 30% year-on-year. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) “counted” a 7.2% drop in the first three quarters.
The epidemic in China started in early February, when the whole economy was at a standstill after the city closure, and the overall consumption fell very sharply at that time. In this case, the overall consumption can only guarantee the basic living at most, and the total consumption at this time is probably projected to drop about 70-80%, and start to go back in April and May, and recover to 70% by October.
And this 70% or hit the water, because this consumption or people in the Home after a long time to hold a kind of retaliatory consumption, if not retaliatory consumption may not be so much, may be only 50 to 60%. Then, from 20% in February to 70% of the curve in October, if we follow this logical reasoning, think about it, the total sales of goods in the first three quarters should fall by at least 50%. But the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 7.2%.
If we follow this, resulting in December, even if the return to the original state, the entire 2020 China’s total consumption fell by at least 20-30% year-on-year, should be very normal.
Second, foreign exports: China’s foreign trade growth in 2020 is a negative number
2020 should be said to be the most difficult year for foreign trade exports, with six words to describe: (the first three months) no production; (the last three months) no orders.
The first three months are closed at home no one production; after April, Europe or the United States, the entire epidemic all up, Europe and the United States into a state of standstill, under the foreign trade orders to China are basically stopped.
China has a Hugo network, is to help stores to do foreign trade platform, in June 2020, Hugo network made a survey, surveyed about 200 foreign trade bosses, generally said that no production, no orders is a common phenomenon, of which 59% said that his capital is only enough to maintain 3 months, and then no orders they will collapse; 14% of the bosses said that they can not hold up, will soon close down. It should be said that the situation is very serious.
But China’s official statistics show a different picture. According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s foreign trade exports in the first quarter fell only 11%, in the case of non-production, but also exported nearly 90%; the second quarter in the case of no orders, exports completed 99.8% of the same period last year, down only 0.2%; the third quarter year-on-year growth of 0.7%; the fourth quarter of the whole year after the original flattening, but also increased by 2.7%.
In fact, from the objective logical reasoning, China’s foreign trade growth in 2020 is also a negative number.
Third, real estate: sales decline in 2020, only the era of rising but not falling is gone
Real estate is the pillar industry of the Chinese economy, the volume is too large, and involves a very large number of industries. For so many years, whether the government or the media, trying to do everything possible to real estate. But in 2020, the whole real estate has changed a lot. In their words: the time when real estate was only going up but not down is gone, and sales are declining. Of course, the official statistics are still growing.
Suzhou is a city in Jiangsu, which is one of China’s major economic provinces, and it is the top economic city in Jiangsu, the “back garden of Shanghai”, so its economic output is one of the strongest among prefecture-level cities in China. In 2020, the prices of second-hand properties have fallen and sales have cooled, as have sales of new properties, which are being sold at a discount in many places. Relevant statistics in Suzhou show that second-hand houses have dropped from a quoted price of more than 28,000 per square foot to more than 24,000, which seems to be a loss of more than 1,700 actual sales prices; sales volume in the best sales month, November, sold more than 5,900 units, while 13,000 units were sold in 2019, which means that November 2020 is only half of November 2019. At the same time it has a declining sales situation for new homes, and it keeps giving away, discounting, and campaigning in all aspects in the hope of selling it.
This shows how much the entire second home market in Suzhou has shrunk in sales, and how much sales have fallen. If Suzhou is like this, can any other prefecture-level city be better than it?
During the Golden Week from October 1 to 8, 2020, Beijing‘s home sales dropped 24% year-over-year. It was down during Golden Week, so what about the rest of the year? You can imagine. Looking at the real estate situation in Suzhou and Beijing and following this logic, what is the real figure for China’s real estate in 2020? How much has it fallen? Is it likely to go up 3 to 4%? So, China’s real estate in 2020 is also a big turning point.
Fourth, foreign trade investment: a large number of foreign enterprises back; state-owned large enterprises bankruptcy burst mines
In 2020, China’s foreign trade investment appeared a large number of enterprises began to return to the United States, back to Taiwan, back to various other places. In contrast, Taiwan’s investment growth is several hundred percent growth, and many enterprises are heading out of China.
China’s state-owned enterprises from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, a large number of state-owned enterprise debt default began to burst, by December 2020, the relevant departments of statistics, China’s state-owned enterprise debt default from more than 12 billion in 2019 increased to more than 58 billion, more than three times. State-owned enterprises should say that the loan with the bank’s capital transactions, to be much easier than private enterprises, so the debt default of state-owned enterprises, unless the enterprise really has a big problem, there will not be a burst of mines. But we saw after the New Year this year, HNA went bankrupt, Founder went bankrupt, Huacheng went bankrupt and reorganized, and so on, all these famous big enterprises collapsed. The Chinese Communist Party is still saying that China’s economy is growing, is that credible? Where does this growth come from?
I believe that the conclusions we can draw from this logical analysis should be much more reliable than the statistics department of the CCP.
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