The 18-member Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), the most influential organization in the Pacific, has long been supported by Japan, the United States, Australia and New Zealand. The forum is on the verge of falling apart after five members announced their withdrawal over disagreements over the selection of its leader.
The collective withdrawal of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Kiribati from the forum has raised concerns among allies that it may lead to greater vulnerability of some countries to Beijing‘s intervention and deepen existing geopolitical and economic rivalries in the region.
Washington, Tokyo, Wellington and Canberra noted that China is well-financed and already provides many loans and development assistance in the region in exchange for access to resources, markets or infrastructure.
The crisis in the Pacific Islands Forum began in early February. Henry Puna, the former prime minister of the Cook Islands, was selected as secretary general in a video conference. The Palau government contested that Puna’s appointment violated an agreement to rotate leadership among representatives of the three main island groups-Polynesia, Melanesia and Micronesia.
Puna defeated Marshall Islands representative Gerald Zackios by one vote in the election for secretary general. Palau formally withdrew from the forum on Feb. 4, citing “the forum is no longer dominated by unity, regionalism and the Pacific style.
After Palau’s withdrawal from the PIF, Nauru and other Pacific island countries announced their “withdrawal”
Withdrawals in quick succession
Despite Australia’s best efforts to mediate, other island nations also announced their withdrawal from the forum five days later. The government of the Micronesian island group issued a statement expressing “extreme disappointment” with the appointment process of the secretary-general.
Founded in 1971 as the South Pacific Forum, the Pacific Islands Forum aims to promote cooperation among Pacific countries and is headquartered in Fiji. The Forum covers a regional area of 8.5 million square kilometers, spanning 11 Time zones and a population of nearly 39 million people.
Stephen Nagy, an associate professor at International Christian University (ICU) in Tokyo, noted that the geographical and cultural differences between member countries have caused many frictions, and that with the increased competition for power in the Pacific today, intra-regional cohesion has become increasingly important.
He told Deutsche Welle, “Japan has historical ties to the region, while the U.S. obviously follows the regional situation closely, and Australia and New Zealand have long considered the region their sphere of influence, having established long-standing relationships with the region through development and educational assistance.”
“Unfortunately, such a model cannot compete with China’s money-spinning approach. In fact, all of these island nations have very homogenous economic models that are highly dependent on tourism, which has been hit hard by the new crown Epidemic.”
Economic problems abound
“These countries have suffered serious economic problems as their revenue streams have plummeted. When China offers to invest large sums of money, it can be a very tempting proposal.”
Nagy said Washington and other governments with interests in the Pacific need to come up with additional funds and commit to long-term support so that the governments of these island nations don’t look elsewhere for solutions that will solve their problems quickly. Jun Okumura, a political scientist at Meiji University’s Institute for International Cooperation, noted that Japan has long been the strongest supporter of the Pacific Islands Forum, hosting the PIF leaders’ meeting every three years since 1997.
The Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Kiribati withdrew en masse from the Pacific Islands Forum in early February.
Many of these islands were part of The Japanese Empire in the first decades of the last century,” he told Deutsche Welle. In the years after the war, Japan worked to re-establish a close partnership with these governments. Many Japanese development aid grants were invested in projects throughout the Pacific. I know that today the people of these islands have a favorable impression of Japan.”
In return for the aid, Tokyo has been able to negotiate fisheries and negotiate other trade agreements, and Japan still has a sense of responsibility to these relatively young developing countries.
“Tokyo will be watching developments at the forum closely, and I’m sure it will be acting behind the scenes to encourage some sort of reconciliation between the parties in this dispute because, quite simply, the repair of the forum is important to Japan as well.”
Will the U.S. intervene?
But the signs so far are disappointing.
The Pacific Islands Forum has announced that it is maintaining Puna’s appointment as secretary-general, saying in a statement, “We will uphold our principles and values in accordance with ‘the Pacific Way’ (the Pacific Way).”
The statement also noted, “Our Pacific Way is the value of collective interest, sustaining relationships, ‘talanoa’ (“dialogue” in Samoan) and mutual respect.”
Naji, a political scientist, hopes that the United States and Japan will quickly come up with concrete proposals to heal the rift. “Compromises will have to be made to move forward, but additional assistance and engagement will also be needed. This is the price that must be paid, – if the regional alliance is not to go down another path – like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, for example, where countries like Cambodia have effectively become vassal states of China.”
Recent Comments