The number of newborns in China will reach a new record low in 2020. The mainland media discussed the reasons why people are reluctant to have children, mainly because they “can’t afford it” and the lack of childcare facilities. The report also said that the relative income of those born after 1990 has dropped significantly compared to the previous generation, affecting the willingness to have children.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Public Security, 10.035 million newborns will be born and registered in 2020, down 15% from 11.79 million in 2019. Even during the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward, the lowest number of newborns was 11.870 million in 1961, according to public data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
However, the number of newborns registered in the household registry is not exactly the same as the number of births in that year, mainly because some newborns did not declare their household registration, so there are differences in the number of statistics from different departments. In 2019, for example, the data from the Ministry of Public Security is 11.79 million, but the Statistics Bureau is 14.65 million.
In a recent article published by Sanlian Life Weekly, it was pointed out that from the population data recently released by some cities, the birth rate in many places dropped sharply last year, with the decline basically exceeding 10 percent, and in some places even exceeding 30 percent. China’s declining birth rate has become increasingly serious.
The fertility rate of Chinese people used to be over 6, but now it is below 1.5, the report said, “Why are Chinese people not willing to have children anymore?” The most important reason is that they can’t afford to have children. Buying and renting a house takes out most of the income of young people, and even for middle-class families, raising a child is a very big expense.
The newspaper said that the relative income of people born in 1990 and 2000 is significantly lower compared to those born in the 1970s and 1980s. Relative income is the ratio of expected future income level to living expenses, the higher the ratio, the stronger the ability to raise children.
With the current economic slowdown in China, those born after the 1990s are not optimistic about their future income growth; however, their living conditions were relatively privileged when they were children, and it is difficult for them to move from extravagance to frugality, and with high housing prices and prices, their living expenses are much higher than those of previous generations. As this group becomes the main force behind China’s fertility, the country’s fertility rate may become even less optimistic.
In addition, society as a whole is clearly not providing enough support for raising children. The newspaper noted that in China, “there are almost zero childcare facilities for the 0-3 year old stage” and that it is almost impossible for two-income families to raise children on their own without the help of their Parents‘ generation.
In order to ease the pressure on pensions, the authorities have begun to study the policy of delaying retirement, but the report notes that this may in turn further reduce the fertility rate, as the vast majority of families need the help of the elderly to care for their children, and many young families may have no choice but to give up having children if they lose the support of the elderly by delaying retirement.
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