On February 1 of this year, the Chinese Communist Party‘s Marine Police Law came into effect, authorizing the use of force by the Marine Police; from the 6th to the 7th, a series of vessels from the Chinese Communist Party’s Marine Police Bureau sailed into the disputed waters near the Diaoyu Islands. This has intensified the conflict between China and Japan. (In fact, the CCP’s maritime police vessels have been patrolling the Diaoyu Islands on a regular basis, with a total of 282 days in 2019 and a record high of 333 days in 2020. There have been several news exposures of close contact between Chinese and Japanese patrol boats, and even the appearance of water cannon shooting at each other.)
On the 8th, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told the House of Representatives Budget Committee that it was “totally unacceptable for (the Chinese Communist Party) to increase tensions in the East and South China Seas through the Maritime Police Law” and stressed that Japan had conveyed its “strong concern” to the Chinese side. To this end, Japan has been actively engaged in diplomatic operations.
For example, on the 9th, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, in a meeting with Joseph M. Young, Chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Japan, again stated forcefully that he “must not accept” the Chinese Communist Party’s Maritime Police Law. Before that, the U.S. repeatedly reaffirmed that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty applies to the Diaoyu Islands.
Another example is the “2+2” videoconference meeting between The Japanese and British foreign ministers and defense ministers on February 3 to discuss deepening cooperation on the CCP’s Maritime Police Law. After the meeting, Britain and Japan issued a joint statement expressing “grave concern” over rising tensions in the East China Sea and South China Sea and urging all parties to “exercise restraint and cease activities that could exacerbate tensions, especially militarization and coercive activities. The report said The two countries agreed to deepen defense and security cooperation between Japan and the U.K. in order to ensure the “free and open Indo-Pacific” vision that Japan is promoting with the U.S., Australia and India to confront the Chinese Communist Party. The UK plans to deploy a carrier-based fighter group to East Asia next year, which Defense Secretary Wallace said was “the most significant deployment of the Royal Navy in a generation,” and Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi welcomed it. The two sides agreed to conduct joint exercises at that Time.
The Marine Police Law is just one concrete action of the Chinese Communist Party’s “War Wolf” diplomacy (many countries have already condemned the law as a violation of international law and treaties), so why is it so exciting for Japan? Obviously, this indicates that the CCP regime’s foreign expansion and global ambitions have long exerted significant strategic pressure on Japan, which has been heavily burdened for a long time.
However, for many years, Japan has been wavering from side to side in its attitude toward the CCP regime.
On the one hand, China has been extremely tempting to Japan’s economy, especially after years of stagnant economic growth. According to the 2020 China-Japan Trade and Investment Cooperation Report released on September 25, 2020, Japan has been China’s second largest goods trading partner for four consecutive years, and China has been Japan’s top goods trading partner for 12 consecutive years (since 2007). Also according to the General Administration of Customs of China, the total import and export trade between China and Japan in 2020 reached $317.538 billion, up 0.8% year-on-year; among them, China imported $174.874 billion from Japan, up 1.8% year-on-year, and exported $142.664 billion to Japan, with a deficit of $32.21 billion. Keep in mind that according to preliminary statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance in January, Japan’s exports decreased by 11.1% in 2020 compared to the previous year. And the proportion of Japan’s exports to China rose to 22% of its total exports. This shows that Japan has huge economic interests in China.
On the other hand, since the mid-1990s, China and Japan have been in constant conflict, especially after 2012 when relations between the two countries continued to deteriorate. Relations between China and Japan have only improved because Trump came to power and the U.S. sniped hard at the Chinese Communist Party, which was forced to adjust its policy toward Japan. the visit of Prime Minister Abe to China in October 2018 and the scheduled visit of Xi Jinping to Japan in 2020 have been delayed due to the Epidemic and are not yet finalized.
In general, Japan’s policy toward China is a two-pronged strategy, i.e., in terms of security and military, the U.S.-Japan alliance is the main axis to prevent China militarily; in terms of economic cooperation with China, taking into account the interests of Japanese enterprises, and holding a vague attitude on China-related issues, for example, especially Abe’s statements on Hong Kong‘s national security law and Xinjiang issues, but not a strong statement.
However, since 2020, the Chinese Communist Party has been seeking hegemony by epidemic, increasing pressure on Japan and intensifying the Sino-Japanese conflict.
For Japan, there is no lack of countermeasures against the CCP. For example, the Chinese Communist Party has been very scornful of Japan on three issues: first, Xi Jinping’s visit to Japan was canceled on the grounds of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law and the Xinjiang issue; second, Japan joined the “Five Eyes Alliance”; and third, the United States was allowed to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Japan. However, Japan’s ambivalence toward the CCP regime makes it difficult to make a choice, and its efforts to counter the CCP are limited.
There are certainly objective reasons for Japan’s wavering toward the CCP regime (e.g., influenced by U.S. policy toward China), but there are even more subjective reasons. One of the most important subjective reasons, in my opinion, is the Japanese authorities’ failure to make a clear distinction between China and the CCP.
In fact, the distinction between China and the CCP is supported by strong public opinion, both in Japan and in China.
In the case of Japan, the Japanese nationals’ recognition of the CCP regime is extremely low. According to Yasuhiro Matsuda, a professor at the Institute of Oriental Culture at the University of Tokyo, Japan’s affinity for China began hovering around 10 to 20 percent a long time ago, a very low level. According to a survey of public attitudes toward the U.S. and China in 33 countries around the world released by the Pew Research Center, an independent U.S. think tank, in early 2020, the biggest difference in opinion between the U.S. and China was in Japan, where 68 percent of Japanese respondents had a positive opinion of the U.S. and only 14 percent had a positive opinion of China. In addition, the Chinese Communist Party violently suppressed the “anti-China” movement triggered by the Chinese government’s forcing the Hong Kong government to amend the law, and even introduced the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law to destroy “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong; the Chinese Communist Party concealed the epidemic, fabricated lies and suppressed whistle blowers during the outbreak of the Great Plague in 2020; and so on. All these have brought the Japanese people’s recognition of the CCP regime to a freezing point.
In the case of China, although brainwashed by the CCP for many years, goodwill toward Japan continues to rise as Chinese people become increasingly aware of Japan. According to the 16th Beijing-Tokyo Forum “Public Opinion Survey on Sino-Japanese Relations” conducted by the China Foreign Affairs Bureau and the Japan Speech NPO on November 17, 2020, Chinese respondents’ overall impression of Japan in 2020 is “very good” and “relatively good. The proportion of Chinese respondents who have a “relatively good” and “relatively good” impression of Japan in 2020 is 45.2%, which is basically the same as in 2019 (45.9%). Why do so many Chinese people have a favorable impression of Japan? One important reason is that many Chinese travel to Japan. According to the Japan Tourism Agency, the number of tourists from mainland China to Japan was about 2.41 million in 2014, and has been the top foreign visitor to Japan since 2015, surging to 9,594,300 in 2019 (accounting for 30% of the overall number). “A hundred times heard is better than seen,” and the good experience and word of mouth of Chinese tourists in Japan make the Chinese Communist Party’s brainwashing unbreakable.
In 2021, no matter how the U.S. policy toward China is adjusted, the siege of the CCP will remain the main line of the evolution of the international landscape. If the Japanese authorities can clearly distinguish between China and the CCP, their policy toward China will be clear.
Of course, for Japan, “stable relations with China are extremely important”. However, it should be noted that “stable relations with China” will only be possible after the disintegration of the CCP.
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