Analysis: The outcome of Trump’s impeachment case seems predictable but has far-reaching implications

The impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump in the U.S. Senate will begin on Tuesday (Feb. 9). Analysts in the U.S. media point out that the outcome of the unprecedented second impeachment of former President Trump (Trump) appears to be doomed, but Democrats are unusually insistent on it because of the far-reaching implications of the case.

Steven Sloan, political analysis editor for the Associated Press, wrote that it would not be easy for Democrats to successfully convict Trump and bar him from running for office again in the future, as at least 17 Republican senators would have to be convinced to fall in line. However, in a test vote in the Senate last month, 45 of the 50 Republican senators supported calling off the impeachment trial.

He said the Senate’s test vote essentially foreshadowed that the eventual impeachment would end without a hitch. But the far-reaching significance of the impeachment trial is that the process itself will be a critical test for politicians and the American people.

“Senators will be forced to sit down and listen to testimony and make judgments and choices on fundamental questions about American democracy (involving the impeachment of a former president and the definition of congressional insurrection). And the American people will watch and make their own judgments in their own way. The verdict and proceedings of the impeachment trial itself will also be judged by future generations,” he said.

“For historians, the trial provides more evidence and documentation under oath,” said Carol Anderson, professor of African-American studies at Emory University, “and gives us a sense of the realities of American democracy when senators are confronted with that evidence .”

Sloan also noted that the impeachment trial was historically significant, but also relevant. World leaders are watching what happens in Washington to assess whether the United States remains committed to democratic principles, and the impeachment trial of Trump will have an impact on all bystanders.

“Now, some countries have said that the United States now has no right to lecture others about the sanctity of democracy. After the congressional riots, Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the upper house of the Russian Congress, said, ‘It is clear that the legs of American democracy have stumbled. The United States is no longer leading by example and has therefore lost all power to set standards, much less impose them on others.'” , he wrote.

With the impeachment, Democrats denounced Trump as being responsible for the Jan. 6 protesters’ storming of Congress, but Trump said the incident came solely from misinterpretations by the media and politicians, and that his speech that day did not constitute any incitement. The two sides are expected to discuss the issue on the impeachment trial floor.

Republicans say that once he leaves office as president, Trump should not be tried for impeachment. Democrats say no such exception is addressed in the Constitution. Trump’s defense attorneys said that during the impeachment debate, the team will focus on the point that an outgoing president should not be impeached, denounce Democrats’ claims of inciting violence and provide video evidence of Democrats encouraging violence.

Trump’s lead impeachment manager, Florida Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings (D), acknowledged that Trump could also end up being found not guilty, saying that “it’s always possible for a jury not to convict,” “but never to make a decision based on that alone. “

Sloan also mentioned that Congress has a lot more to do than impeach the former president. The Biden administration just took office and is pushing a $1.9 trillion package to address the Communist virus (Wuhan pneumonia) pandemic, as well as issues such as immigration, health care and climate change.

Former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat, said proceeding with an impeachment case against Trump now could divert energy from larger priorities. He argues that an impeachment trial can only be done if Congress is united, and that such an impeachment would have to be secured with resources and a thorough investigation of what happened during Jan. 6, all things that take Time to get right.

Sloan believes that this impeachment trial against Trump is also a test for the Republican Party. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has previously publicly claimed that Trump bears some responsibility for the violence in Congress, and in the first test vote, McConnell voted to declare his disapproval of impeachment. So far, most Republicans have refused to endorse Trump’s impeachment. They are encountering the fact that Trump supporters remain the dominant force in the Republican Party.