Another lightning strike! China’s financial risk is approaching a tipping point

The debt crisis of Huaxia Happiness, a listed real estate developer in mainland China, has become another major financial event after HNA Group announced its bankruptcy restructuring. The outside world is concerned about whether China’s systemic financial risk is approaching a critical point.

On January 7, it was rumored that Chinese real estate developer “Huaxia Happiness” was at risk of paying off its non-public bonds that were due to pay interest because of its poor performance. At that Time, the official reply of “Huaxia Happiness” said that the interest payment had been paid and the company was operating normally. After the clarification, the share price of “Huaxia Happiness” rose rapidly.

After three weeks, that is, on January 29, the stock of “Huaxia Happiness” was suspended due to the debt crisis.

On February 1, “Huaxia Happiness” publicly admitted for the first time that the debt could not be carried, overdue 5.255 billion yuan of debt, is coordinating with all parties to actively raise funds, and coordinate with the overdue financial institutions involved in matters related to the extension. “The first meeting of the creditors’ committee of financial institutions was held simultaneously in six places, including Beijing, Langfang, Shanghai and Shenzhen, by Huaxia Happiness in a connected way.

According to mainland media reports, Wang Wenwen, chairman of Huaxia Happiness, said at the debt coordination meeting that the company had misjudged the situation and expanded aggressively, resulting in debts due this year reaching hundreds of billions of yuan, which the company would not be able to repay with its existing book capital.

It is understood that the “Huaxia Happiness”, founded in 1998, since its start in Langfang, Hebei, business in addition to real estate development, but also focus on electronic information, aerospace and other industries, to create a comprehensive industrial clusters in China.

In 2015, the Chinese Communist Party authorities launched the “Corporate Bond Issuance and Trading Management Method”, which significantly expanded the subjects of bond issuance and simplified the review process, driving a significant expansion of corporate credit, leading to a skyrocketing issuance of corporate bonds in 2016. “Huaxia Happiness is also involved.

Mainland investment bank insider Zheng Yi: “It (Huaxia Happiness) issued a lot of bonds in the capital market, it is also playing hard to grab money. To put it bluntly, in the capital market can issue the debt, can get the money, it has been getting in advance. All 15 years, 16 years that wave, 15 years, 16 years hand faster, that year to do is three plus two, three plus two expiry, and so 16 years plus 5 years exactly is 2021.”

The outside world believes that the Chinese Communist authorities tried to deleverage the financial tsunami to mitigate the threat to China, but laid the fuse for a large number of defaults later.

Zheng Yi: “Like one after another what Taihe, including the other day, that Evergrande also appeared problems, including now Huaxia Happiness, including Wanda, have appeared problems, this has become a common phenomenon, now to put it bluntly there is no way. So this year there will be a succession of large enterprises in the lightning, which is unavoidable. Because this is directly related to that window of 15 years, 16 years of issuance of debt.”

Professor Xie Tian of the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina believes that the “Huaxia Happiness” debt crash is just a case of China’s economic collapse. Many companies and even the Chinese Communist Party government at all levels are in debt and have long been unable to make ends meet.

Professor Xie Tian of the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina: “The Chinese Communist Party is facing such a dilemma, like Hainan Airlines, which, by definition, should be allowed to go into bankruptcy and liquidation, that is, to sell its wreckage and be done with it, but the Chinese Communist Party is afraid that it will bring about a greater sensation. So it now has a bankruptcy reorganization, but actually harmed the shareholders, small shareholders, but also the entire Chinese people. Because the banks are actually pushing out these bad assets again.”

According to statistics, more than 470 real estate companies in China declared bankruptcy in 2020, a large number of debt crisis whether elevated to China’s financial risk, become the focus of attention.

Zheng Yi: “I think this piece of the Chinese Communist Party wants to save this kind of private enterprises, or this kind of listed joint-stock enterprises, is not very likely. Why? State-owned enterprises now it can not save over, let alone this private enterprises. It this cash flow problems, including the cash flow of the entire real estate industry, the collective cut-off, this thing to save, now it should be, I think it should be difficult, because too much.”

China’s systemic financial risk is approaching a tipping point. Last December credit rating agency Moody’s, predicted that China’s financial sector will face more risk of bad loans. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, predicted a continued increase in debt defaults by Chinese state-owned enterprises. Barron’s, the financial media, believes that China’s investment risks are also increasing.