Myanmar’s coup faces international sanctions, good or bad for Beijing?

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday (Feb. 2) on the situation in Myanmar. The Council will discuss “a range of measures” and will not rule out the possibility of sanctions against the coup initiators, said Barbara Woodward, the Council’s rotating president and Britain’s permanent representative to the UN in New York.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stressed again at a press conference in Beijing the same day that “China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar” and that China hopes all parties in Myanmar “will properly handle their differences under the constitutional and legal framework and maintain political and social stability.

We are maintaining communication with all parties concerned on issues related to the Security Council,” Wang added. Any action by the international community should contribute to Myanmar’s political and social stability, to its peaceful reconciliation, and to avoid intensifying conflicts and further complicating the situation.”

The Burma Defense Force’s seizure of power has sparked strong condemnation from democratic countries, and U.S. President Joe Biden noted in a statement that the United States has lifted sanctions against Burma over the past decade based on the progress of democracy in the country. In the face of this current reversal of the situation, the United States must immediately review relevant sanctions laws and authorities and take appropriate action.

The potential sanctions have raised concerns in some quarters. Some commentators have suggested that action against Burma could lead it away from democracy and into the arms of China. The Wall Street Journal reports that this raises the possibility that any U.S. action could further push Burma closer to China, which could exacerbate tensions between the United States and China at a Time when the two countries are competing for influence in the region.

For his part, Japanese Vice Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama said in an interview with Reuters, “If we don’t handle it properly, Burma could move further away from politically free democracies and join the Chinese alliance.”

He also told Reuters that any move to suspend Japan’s plans to cooperate with the Burmese military could lead to China winning greater influence, potentially undermining regional security.

Just three weeks before Myanmar’s military seizure of power, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Myanmar Defense Force chief Min Aung Hlaing in the country’s capital Naypyidaw. During the meeting, Wang said China appreciates the Myanmar military’s commitment to “national revitalization, thinking about the country’s future development from a long-term perspective, adhering to the traditional friendship between China and Myanmar, and promoting the ‘brotherhood’ between the two countries. Wang also said that China supports the Myanmar military to play its role and make positive contributions in the country’s transformation and development process.

There were reports that Min Aung Hlaing had raised claims of fraud in the November election during his meeting with Wang Yi. The Burmese military said the action was a response to the election fraud.

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Jürgen Hardt, the foreign policy spokesman for the German CDU and CSU parties in the Bundestag, said China may have encouraged the Burmese military to stage the coup and called on the EU to investigate it.

The coup in Burma raises a lot of questions,” he told Deutsche Welle. I don’t know if a major power is behind the coup. In January, the Chinese foreign minister visited Burma and met with representatives of the Burmese military. Perhaps the Chinese government encouraged the Burmese military to take over power in the country at that time. I ask the EU to launch a detailed investigation into the circumstances behind the whole coup.”

But some analysts say that the situation in Myanmar may not be good for China, especially on an economic level.

China is the second largest investor in Myanmar, after Singapore. China’s trade with Myanmar accounts for about a third of Myanmar’s total trade. Murray Hiebert, a senior fellow in the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, argues that in a sense, Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government appears to be more helpful in advancing Chinese interests in Burma than the Burmese military.

In an interview with Taiwan‘s Central News Agency, The Myanmar Times correspondent Liu Zhongen analyzed that China’s largest project in Myanmar, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, was signed under Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD government. The previous Chinese investment in the Myitsone hydropower project was halted in 2011 by Myanmar’s military-backed Thein Sein government. The Burmese military also has a problem with the Chinese-aided Kyaukpyu deep-water port.

Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that the Burmese military has released local leaders and lawmakers from detention, and the governors of Sagaing and Ayeyarwady provinces have returned to their homes, but President Win Myint and Senior State Minister Aung San Suu Kyi continue to be detained.