Myanmar coup Biden has limited leverage to check and balance

According to AFP. Burma’s military staged a coup to return the country to the military government era after 10 years of democratic transition, testing U.S. President Joe Biden‘s determination to advocate democracy; experts say that unlike when the U.S. birthed the democratic transition in Burma, Biden has limited leverage today.

Burma’s democratic process was initially hailed as a major achievement by former President Barack Obama when Biden was Obama’s deputy.

Myanmar’s substantive leader Aung San Suu Kyi and several top government officials were arrested yesterday by the military. Aung San Suu Kyi, once an internationally acclaimed human rights leader, has lost much of her prestige in the West for ignoring the atrocities committed by the Burmese military against the minority Rohingya.

In a strongly worded statement today, Biden called on the Burmese military to immediately relinquish the power it has seized and release the social activists and officials it has arrested, and for the United States to hold accountable those who have undermined Burma’s democratic transition and review the sanctions that have been lifted.

Biden said, “The United States will stand up for democracy wherever it is under attack.”

However, former U.S. Ambassador to Burma Derek J. Mitchell said the United States no longer has the same leverage as it did 10 years ago.

He said, “I think the Rohingya crisis has led to a serious setback, and there’s clearly good reason for that, because we have to speak out and act against these kinds of genocidal actions, but at the expense of the relationship.”

Myanmar Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing has been placed on the U.S. travel and financial sanctions list for his command of the Tatmadaw’s brutal crackdown on the Rohingya, a stateless Muslim minority in the country.

“It’s easy to make a statement, but it’s hard to figure out the next step,” said Murray Hiebert, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank.

He said, “What else can you do? I think you could sanction a couple of military companies. That might put a little bit of pressure because they are so broadly embedded in all levels of the economy.”

The main countries with which the U.S. could coordinate are Japan and India, close U.S. partners with whom Burma has friendly relations; Burma received 1.5 million doses of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine from India just days ago.

Siebert said he believes China actually has better relations with Aung San Suu Kyi because the civilian government is more interested in Beijing‘s Belt and Road Initiative than the Burmese military, but as the West prepares to tighten relations, the Burmese junta may have no choice but to rely on China.

Biden has promised to refocus relations with allies, and many countries in Southeast Asia would like to see Washington check Beijing.

Says Siebert: “The situation in Burma makes that goal more difficult.”