Aung San Suu Kyi’s domestic popularity is high, and young supporters are holding up portraits demanding the military release her.
The Burmese military launched a coup on Monday (Feb. 1), placing senior state minister Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest in the capital’s Nay Pyi Daw, detaining President Win Myint and detaining several key members of the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) government on the grounds of “electoral fraud” in the 2020 election. Some experts say the fragility of Myanmar’s democratic process lies in the excessive constitutional power of the military, which the civilian government is unable to check. (By Chen Junhao)
On Monday, the Burmese military declared a one-year “state of emergency” in Myanmar, with power transferred to Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and the military-backed Vice President Myint Soe acting as president. Aung San Suu Kyi was returned to house arrest from her role as prime minister as “senior minister of state”. However, she has only been out of house arrest for 10 years.
Since 2011, the military government has gradually handed over power to a civilian government backed by retired generals, and then released Aung San Suu Kyi to enter democratization, during which two parliamentary elections were held. However, in just 10 years, the democratization process in Myanmar has come to a halt.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s difficulties in amending the constitution to suppress the military’s power
Herve Lemahieu, a Myanmar expert at the Lowy Institute of International Studies in Australia, analyzed the reasons for the 10-year halt in Myanmar’s democratization, including the military being given great power by the constitution, and the mixed political system of civilians and the military government.
Le Mae Hue said: Myanmar has experienced political liberation, but there are many limitations, she is a mixed system of government, two power core constantly wrestling, namely the elected civilian government and the military government, the military has a lot of power in the constitution, so that the military has the ability to launch the coup seen yesterday, Aung San Suu Kyi’s “All People’s Alliance” and the military among the power struggle is actually quite fragile, the civilian government and the military cooperation even in the past five years can be said to be When the election results in November 2020, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD overwhelmed the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military saw that public opinion was overwhelming and a crisis emerged, so it staged a coup.
Le Mee Hue also believes that, in addition to the election results challenge the authority of the military, the 64-year-old commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing will reach the legal retirement age in another year, he is in power, choose to launch a coup d’état during his term of office, in a year of emergency, may be renewed as commander-in-chief, or appoint a suitable successor.
In addition, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, during her rule, ignored the military’s crackdown on the Rohingya, who practice Islam in the country, fueling ethnic conflicts in the country.
The military launched the coup by virtue of its constitutional powers. Under the 2008 military-led constitution, senior officials in the ministries of defense, interior and border affairs are promoted from within the military and report directly to the commander-in-chief of the national defense force; the constitution also ensures that the military has absolute control over homeland security, border affairs, military affairs and the Defense and Security Council, which controls the country’s actual military power; and the military has immunity for certain crimes. It is quite difficult for the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi to amend the constitution for reform because the military can retain 25% of the seats in the upper and lower houses. According to the constitution, Aung San Suu Kyi has to amend the constitution to transfer power peacefully to the civilian government and reduce the influence of the military, and the proposed constitutional amendment must receive more than 75% of the affirmative votes in the parliament before it can be passed. 25% of the legal seats controlled by the military ensures the military’s absolute veto power.
U.S.: Consider Sanctions Against China: Respect Human Rights
Myanmar’s coup, a multinational response. The more touching point is how the U.S. and China will react, especially the new U.S. President Joe Biden, who is on the scene. The coup in Myanmar can be said to be the first diplomatic test for him. Biden issued a statement that the military seized power, imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi and other officials, and declared a state of emergency, a series of actions are a direct impact on the transition to democracy and the rule of law in Burma, Biden called on the Burmese military to immediately give up the power that has been seized, the release of dissidents and officials. He also threatened the U.S. to revisit sanctions.
Foreigners see China’s posture as ambiguous in the wake of the coup in Burma. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday that “China has taken note of what is happening in Myanmar and is learning more about it,” adding that China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar and “hopes that all parties in Myanmar will properly handle their differences under the constitutional and legal framework and respect human rights and fundamental freedoms. According to Le Méheu’s analysis, China sees the strategic and economic interests on the ground and will maintain a cooperative relationship regardless of who is on the stage.
Washington and other European countries are likely to reconsider sanctions against the Burmese military, LeMahieu said. As Min Aung Hlaing has long been barred from entering the United States, his account has been frozen, and his Facebook account has been deleted. The question is how strong the U.S. sanctions will be – will they return to the harshness of the 1990s, or will they only target individuals and companies? Depending on how the military responds, the U.S. could also hold back a bit and impose tougher sanctions if the situation gets tougher. As for China, both the military government and Aung San Suu Kyi have cooperated with Burma, and China will not put all its eggs in one basket, and will support whoever is in power.
Le Méheu believes that China may not have received news of the coup early, but in January, Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing in Yangon, and Min Aung Hlaing already spilled his guts to Wang Yi, explaining to China the predicament the military was facing, so China may have anticipated the coup and made preparations.
Rohingya situation worrisome with military in power
Myanmar’s coup d’état is notable for the local collection of 600,000 Rohingya in Rakhine State. The Rohingya are suppressed by the Myanmar military because of racial and religious issues, and 120,000 people are still trapped in refugee camps. Myanmar’s military crackdown on the Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2017 caused more than 700,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh, which UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Western countries have accused of ethnic cleansing, but the Myanmar military denies.
In the 2020 election, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD won 83 percent of the nearly 476 re-elected seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw (upper house) and Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house), defeating the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the Nationalist Political Democratic Party (DNP). The election results showed that the majority of public opinion favored Aung San Suu Kyi’s All-National League for Democracy (ANLD) over the military government, which has been in control of the political arena for nearly 60 years, making the military government realize that it had to step in to maintain the military’s interests, triggering the coup.
In response to the coup, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD issued a statement on its Facebook page, calling for “the release of all those arrested, including the President (Win Myint) and the Senior Minister of State (Aung San Suu Kyi). The statement also said it “regards this matter (the coup) as a stain on the history of the country and the armed forces.
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