Taiwan‘s Ministry of National Defense announced that PLA aircraft transport 8 anti-submarine aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone on Feb. 1. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense provides
With the frequent presence of U.S. and Chinese military aircraft in Taiwan’s southwest airspace, a commentary in the New York Times predicts that Dongsha and Kinmen may become hotspots of conflict between the U.S. and China, or even a “new Cuban crisis. Taiwan scholars have a different view, believing that it is the “invisible war” that must be guarded against, and that the Chinese Communist Party‘s strategy is to simmer slowly, with the aim of “giving up without a fight.
The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan opened a special section on its official website last September for instant military updates, and has so far published about 100 updates on the activities of PLA aircraft in the southwestern airspace and the central line of the Strait. In contrast to the past to the U.S. military dynamics are not to comment on the response, the Republic of China military said this move is to make the regional situation transparent.
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Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense made rare announcements about U.S. military aircraft over Taiwan on January 31 and February 1. (Courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense)
Secretary of State John Blinken was asked in an interview with MSNBC whether the United States would take measures if the Chinese Communist Party took action against Taiwan and whether a military confrontation with China was possible in the future. Blinken said that the United States would ensure a military layout to stop Chinese aggression and that “all options are within the control of the United States.
New York Times Op-Ed: Could Dongsha, Kinmen turn into “New Cuban Crisis”?
Nicholas Kristof, a senior reporter and columnist for The New York Times, wrote an article on January 30, “China May Be Biden‘s Nightmare” (Biden’s Nightmare May Be China). According to the article, Xi could order an invasion of Taiwan’s outlying islands of Dongsha and Kinmen to exert pressure, or send submarines to cut Taiwan’s submarine cables, block Taiwan’s oil imports, launch cyber attacks, and destroy Taiwan’s banking system, partly because Xi is an egotistical and risk-taking bully who believes the United States is in decline.
In the article, Ji Sidao analyzes that a conflict between the U.S. and China could break out in the Dongsha or Kinmen Islands, or even evolve into a major war, making it the most dangerous confrontation with another nuclear-armed power since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962!
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced on February 1 the dynamics of PLA aircraft in the airspace southwest of Taiwan. (Courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense)
Taiwan military commentator Leyi Qi was interviewed by Radio Free Asia on February 2, then analyzed that there are no signs of confrontation or deployment of missiles, which does not constitute a Cuban crisis. The former Soviet Union clearly sent missiles and ships to enter directly, the PLA adopted the strategy of “boiling frogs in warm water” to paralyze the other side.
The Chinese Communist Party uses the strategy of cutting sausages and boiling frogs in warm water to avoid war?
The former Soviet Union somewhat adopted the practice of Western Medicine, using open surgery to face the problem, China is more like Chinese medicine, slowly simmering. This vigilance is another kind of vigilance.”
According to Qi Leyi, the Chinese Communist Party is tactically less likely to choose a one-Time showdown, unlike the urgent, large-scale approach of the Cuban crisis. “Rather, that shallow, slow, the purpose is to create a strategically favorable posture, so that you do not fight and give up. The reason why he wants to boil the frog in warm water so slowly is that he hopes that there will be no war and that Taiwan will be solved relatively lightly.”
Qi Leyi mentioned that at the end of last year, China and the United States held their first online crisis management working meeting, and it was clear that both sides did not want a crisis to break out. When the PLA aircraft disturbing Taiwan becomes the norm, the national army should see the pattern from the changes and retain the war effort without having to fly overhead every time to drive away.
Guo Yuren, professor of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Regional Studies at Sun Yat-sen University.
The Chinese Communist Party is good at using the “sausage slicing strategy” in the East China Sea, the central line of the Taiwan Strait and the airspace southwest of Taiwan, according to Guo Yuren, a professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Regional Studies at Sun Yat-sen University. “The sausage-cutting strategy is a three-step process: destroy the status quo, create a new status quo, and create his domestic law to legitimize the new status quo he creates. Like when he went to get Diaoyutai in 2012, he created an air defense identification zone in 2013.”
In addition, the Forbes website published an article on January 29 analyzing that China may not adopt traditional beaching amphibious landing operations in order to avoid mass casualties, Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College, pointed out that the PLA is more likely to adopt sneak attack tactics. The use of container shipments, civil aviation, sneaking troops into Taiwan, sneak attack Taiwan.
The cost of “sneak attack on Taiwan” is too high for Taiwan scholars: strictly prevent the “invisible war”
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Professor Yan Jianfa of the Department of Business Administration at Jianxing University of Technology analyzed that as long as there is prepared mobilization, U.S. satellites will see it, and a spur-of-the-moment sneak attack will make it harder for the CCP to clean up, and possibly Xi Jinping‘s seat will be untenable.
The Taiwan Vision Foundation held a seminar on the second day, the topic touched on the Indo-Pacific strategy and U.S.-China-Taiwan relations after Biden took power.
Yan Jianfa also believes that special attention should be paid to the “invisible war”, like the conflict between Trump and Biden still exists, there may be some caused by the Chinese Communist Party Hackers, the Chinese Communist Party hackers may also create a lot of information to disrupt Taiwan’s internal.
Will Taiwan be included in the IAMD by the US?
Guo Yuren mentioned that if the PLA continues to conduct military operations in the North and South China Sea and the southwest airspace of Taiwan every day, it may force the United States to add Taiwan to the IAMD (Integrated Air Defense and Anti-Missile System). Once the carrier enters the North and South China Sea, it is within the range of the Chinese Communist Party’s missile fire saturation attack, therefore, Taiwan’s southwest corner becomes very important. In addition to Taiwan’s self-developed Bow I to Bow III, low and medium altitude interceptor missiles, Taiwan also has Patriot III missiles.
According to Kuo, the inclusion of Taiwan in the IAMD is a must for the United States to maintain the security of the First Island Refinery and the Indo-Pacific region.
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