The retail investors seize the group to buy shares to drive GameStop (GME-US) and other stocks soared, rolling the stock market short rout, but also let the dollar air force feel uneasy, but data show that speculators have not yet abandoned, continue to raise the net short parts.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that this month, the dollar net short not reduce but increase, in the week ended 26 still remain in September touched multi-year highs.
Bank of America (BofA) a recent survey shows that shorting the dollar is the second of all popular transactions, the reason is obvious: the United States can be expected to launch more fiscal stimulus, vaccine massive exerting beneficial boom, are favorable to risk assets, while suppressing the safe-haven dollar, but in January the situation is just the opposite.
The dollar index (DXY) depreciated 6.7% last year, but this year to rebound 0.7%, as analysts generally expected to continue to depreciate. Nevertheless, compared to last March, the dollar index is still 13% lower.
Some analysts bearish position of the dollar wavered, the original Federal Reserve (Fed) can be expected to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, as well as the global economy synchronized recovery assumptions, is being questioned.
Jefferies Financial Group foreign exchange global department head Brad Bechtel said, the United States will enter a period of economic growth than most economies, interest rates will climb higher, more importantly, after taking into account the Inflation of real interest rates climbing, are pulling up the dollar.
Fed Chairman Ball said Wednesday that it is too early to withdraw monetary stimulus, but the market began to discuss whether the point of slowing down the pace of bond purchases will be earlier than expected, not only that, if Europe continues to blockade, the global recovery is difficult to synchronize.
But another faction maintains a bearish stance on the dollar. Zach Pandl, exchange rate and emerging markets strategist at Goldman Sachs, said bottlenecks in the distribution of Variant viruses and vaccines have not caused him to significantly revise his forecast for global growth, and he believes there will be a lag in the progress of countries approving vaccines and achieving herd immunity this year.
We remain bearish on the dollar, citing its high valuation, low nominal and real interest rates, and the fact that the global economy is recovering,” Pandl said. This month’s setback was only momentary, and the dollar’s downtrend remains solid.
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