The Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on Taiwan work in 2021 not long ago, which was a routine event with no new direction or good measures. CPPCC Chairman Wang Yang emphasized “accurate strain“, “scientific strain”, “risk awareness” and “bottom-line thinking “These are all empty rhetoric, showing the dilemma of being helpless in working with Taiwan. This meeting was intended to respond to the latest developments in U.S.-Taiwan relations, but unfortunately a response is tantamount to no response at all.
The policies of successive U.S. presidents toward Taiwan have been built on the basis of policies toward China, with U.S.-Taiwan relations absolutely subordinate to U.S.-China relations, with restrictions placed on Taiwan at every turn for fear of offending the Chinese Communist Party, preferring to go overboard rather than daring to do enough. However, since Trump took office, the U.S. dynasty and the public have fundamentally adjusted their basic stance on Taiwan relations, with the House and Senate passing several Taiwan-related bills almost unanimously and the Trump Administration launching successive approaches to thawing U.S.-Taiwan relations.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Demonstrates Defense Responsibilities
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announces the removal of all past U.S. government restrictions on U.S.-Taiwan exchanges, meaning that U.S. and Taiwan officials will visit each other at a higher level, while Taiwan’s official agencies in the United States will enjoy higher treatment and more freedom of movement.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Craft held a video call with Tsai. Tsai expressed Taiwan’s desire to participate in meetings and activities at the United Nations and its affiliates, which Craft echoed in a subsequent Twitter post, saying, “One day, you [Taiwan] will be here [at the United Nations] too.”
More importantly, the U.S. government released the secret document “U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategic Framework” three decades ahead of schedule, which emphasizes “the use of military force to deter China for the United States and its allies and partners; and to build capabilities and concepts to defeat China in a variety of conflicts.” The U.S. denies China air and sea control within the “first island chain” and commits to defend the countries and regions of the first island chain, including Taiwan, and to achieve dominance in all areas outside the first island chain. This document makes clear that the United States has substantial responsibility for the security and defense of Taiwan.
The new Secretary of State Blinken, Asian Affairs Director Campbell and other senior Foreign Ministry officials have good relations with Taiwan. Blinken emphasized that the U.S. has a non-partisan commitment to Taiwan’s security that “will absolutely continue” and that it would be a “grave mistake” for the Chinese Communist Party to use force against Taiwan.
Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Xiao Meiqin, was unprecedentedly invited to attend President Biden‘s Inauguration ceremony, demonstrating that the Biden Administration will no longer look at the Chinese Communist Party for its handling of U.S.-Taiwan relations, and that the Chinese Communist Party can only pretend that this is not happening.
The Chinese Communist Party’s policy toward Taiwan is inseparable from the two ends of civil and military unification, with civil unification as the top policy and military unification as the bottom policy, based on “one country, two systems” and the “1992 Consensus”, and military unification on the hope that the United States will stand by and watch the cross-strait war. Originally, the Chinese Communist Party wanted Hong Kong to be a model of “one country, two systems,” but the anti-China campaign and the National Security Law have exposed themselves as lies, and the “1992 Consensus” has become the political ravings of a very small pro-China faction of the Kuomintang.
Taiwan’s status quo means reunification is remote
As for military unification, more than 60% of Taiwan’s citizens are determined to defend the country when the Chinese Communist Party invades Taiwan by force, Taiwan has purchased a large amount of advanced weapons from the United States over the years, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategic Framework has punctured Ma Ying-jeou’s threat that “the beginning of war is the end of war”. The frequent activities of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Taiwan Strait, and the military cooperation between the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Japan, are a serious response to the threat of force by the Chinese Communist Party.
The latest relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan is based on the U.S. global strategy. Taiwan’s high-tech industry is the key to the U.S. supply chain, the security of the first island chain is related to the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and Western allies, and more importantly, Taiwan’s democratic system is at the forefront of the demonstration of universal values, and the U.S. will never sit back and watch the Chinese Communist Party unify Taiwan by force.
The Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Defense recently re-emphasized Taiwan’s independence as the bottom line for war, implying that as long as Taiwan does not declare independence, war will not break out across the Taiwan Strait. Accordingly, the best option for Taiwan is to maintain the status quo, but maintaining the status quo is again the most unfavorable prospect for reunification: the longer the status quo drags on, the more Taiwanese and the Chinese Communist Party are separated from each other, the more Taiwan’s international status improves, and the more robust the system is built, meaning that reunification will be more distant and remote .
The CCP is at its wits’ end with regard to the current U.S.-Taiwan relationship. While there is no hope for reunification, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship is on the rise, with the U.S. and Taiwan upgrading their bilateral relations, and the CCP can only sigh from across the ocean. Recently, Xi Jinping emphasized that “Time and situation” are on the side of the CPC. Since there is time and situation, let’s see how Xi Jinping will solve the Taiwan issue.
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