The United States needs to rethink and redesign its East Asia strategy if the situation in East Asia is to be stabilized, rather than reestablishing absolute U.S. dominance in East Asia and preventing China from gaining dominance in the region, several U.S. experts who espouse diplomatic solutions to controversial issues said on Friday (Jan. 29).
“This is a kind of ‘unstable rebalancing,'” Michael Swaine, director of the Quincy Institute’s East Asia Department, said, summarizing the changing state of affairs in East Asia.
Swaine: East Asia faces an “unstable rebalancing”
He noted that the rise of Chinese power has ended decades of absolute U.S. military and partial economic dominance in East Asia, but this change in power does not end with absolute Chinese dominance.
According to Swann, the United States needs to work with forces in East Asia and beyond to transform this “unstable rebalancing” into a “stable rebalancing.
In this webinar, organized by the Quincy Institute, several of its East Asia experts presented a recent report on East Asia strategy. Former Ambassador to China J. Stapleton Roy and former Assistant Secretary of State for Asia-Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton also participated in the seminar.
The report argues that the U.S. pursuit of absolute military superiority in East Asia is not only ineffective, but will gradually isolate the United States, and therefore requires enhanced diplomatic efforts to increase economic cooperation with East Asian countries and build a more balanced and inclusive strategic structure that can effectively engage with China.
Du Ruiqing: U.S. East Asia Policy Should Be Oriented to Contain China
Rachel Odell, an expert on Indo-Pacific security at the Quincy Institute, said the U.S. strategy of trying to reestablish absolute military superiority in East Asia is too expensive, and that it not only fails to change China’s behavior, but increases the risk of regional conflict or even nuclear war.
But she also said, “There are many ways that China can use its military power to coerce countries that are short on armed forces. And in the long run, there will always be all kinds of uncertainty about the situation in the region.” She therefore believes that U.S. Security policy in East Asia should be oriented toward preventing China from gaining control of the waters and airspace of the Western Pacific and curbing China’s ability to pose a force threat to East Asian nations.
Rather than developing weapons that can strike mainland Chinese targets with precision, the United States should develop anti-ship cruise missiles and long-range out-of-area weapons to deter China’s offensive behavior; at the same Time, it should more effectively spread its forces throughout East Asia rather than concentrating them in a few military bases; in addition, the United States should try to build a degree of mutual trust with China and other East Asian countries to reduce military tensions in areas of potential conflict such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea.
Dong Yunsheng and Rui Xiujian: Is a Moderate China Policy Possible?
Dong Yunsheng said the Trump administration’s China policy is almost a 180-degree turn from its traditional policy toward China, and that no major policy should make such a radical shift in the absence of debate and discussion. She also raised questions about the Quincy Institute’s East Asia strategy report: Some may feel that once the U.S. softens its posture and seeks a “stable rebalancing,” China will see this as U.S. weakness and become more reckless.
Rui also raised doubts that despite the end of the Trump Administration, the forces and members of Congress who support Trump’s China policy are still very strong, and it is doubtful that a moderate China policy can really be adopted by the administration.
Shiwen said that Congress needs to recognize that U.S. allies do not like to be forced to choose sides between the U.S. and China, and that a more balanced and moderate strategy toward China is not only more practical, but also more in line with the needs of U.S. allies’ interests, so as to get more support and cooperation from them on China policy.
In addition, Shi also pointed out that the U.S. is facing huge domestic challenges and needs to spend more resources on rebuilding its own power, especially to revive the U.S. economy, reconstruct the unequal economic system and reflect U.S. values. He noted that much of the political division within the United States is rooted in economic issues.
“It’s very important to rebuild the image and competitiveness of the United States,” Swann said.
Dui Huaqing added that the Biden administration has discussed a “foreign policy that serves the American middle class. This philosophy advocates linking every budget to the interests of ordinary Americans. She believes there is bipartisan support in Congress for such a philosophy.
“Whether it’s foreign policy or military policy, it’s important to consider how those decisions affect the wallets or the security of ordinary Americans,” Dewey said.
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