At the beginning of the 2020 outbreak of Newcastle pneumonia (CCP virus), many observers expected the outbreak to be a “Chernobyl moment” for the Chinese Communist Party. However, according to an annual report by a Washington-based organization, the CCP has effectively maintained regime stability internally through strict speech censorship, but has ruined China’s international image by using a major internal propaganda tactic in diplomacy. The report argues that one of the next factors that could affect the legitimacy of the CCP regime and the success or failure of President Xi Jinping‘s extended 2022 term will be Taiwan.
If the new virus is a major test of the institutions of different countries, one of the Communist Party’s three self-confidence trumpets – “institutional confidence” – has begun to blow loudly in the second half of last year, when the international community is still mired in the virus.
To deconstruct the narrative that “China under the CCP passed the Epidemic test,” the Center for Advanced China Research, a Washington-based nonprofit that specializes in research on the Chinese Communist Party, has released a new annual report that finds that the Communist Party’s “systemic self-confidence” is still intact. Research, a Washington-based nonprofit that studies the Chinese Communist Party, found in its latest annual report that the main reason for this is that the Communist Party’s strict censorship of speech and strong official propaganda techniques to steer public opinion have had some effect, especially in maintaining regime stability at Home.
Screenshot of the cover of the annual report “Party Vision” (China Center for Advanced Studies)
The Communist Party’s Epidemic Narrative Trilogy
In the report, titled Covid-19 and Chinese Communist Party Resilience, David Gitter, president and executive director of the Center for Advanced China Studies, compares the three stages of the CCP’s narrative in the face of the epidemic: First, the central leadership cannot be blamed; second, the First, the central leadership cannot be blamed; second, public opinion is guided through strict speech censorship and the dissemination of positive energy; and third, the origin of the virus is blamed on other countries, and it is all the fault of foreign countries.
Gitt told the station, “The CCP was unable to hide or reverse the suffering of Wuhan people in particular, and people were unhappy with the official concealment of information about the epidemic at the beginning, however, the CCP’s propaganda did effectively reverse the direction of public opinion internally. Xi Jinping escaped blame.”
Local governments have become scapegoats. The report argues that the CCP’s grand internal propaganda tactics have indeed been somewhat effective in maintaining domestic stability and redeeming its image. However, all of the report’s co-authors agree that the CCP’s export of this propaganda and narrative to the international community has not been successful in restoring China’s international reputation and has backfired.
Robert Sutter, a member of the board of directors of the Center for Advanced China Studies and a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, spoke at a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCCR) on 28 May at the U.S. Congress. He told the USCC hearing that Xi Jinping, who has been in charge of everything, is to blame for China’s diplomatic failures, especially during last year’s epidemic.
“The United States may have failed to do a good job of isolating the CCP over the past four years, but the CCP’s practices have also led to its own international notoriety, including a border dispute with India and unjustified pressure on Australia over an investigation into the origin of the virus. The Chinese Communist Party appears nervous and uneasy about the international environment in which it finds itself, and this can instead be an asset and a bargaining chip that the next administration of U.S. President Joe Biden can use to reunite its allies.” Sutter said.
The Chinese Communist Party appears to have a stronger immunity from the new crown virus. Another author of the report, Andrew J. Nathan, a professor of political science at Columbia University, discusses why the CCP’s approach still enjoys the approval and support of Chinese public opinion, citing four reasons: the CCP’s heavy-handed control of information, efficient policy performance, the rise of normal nationalism and fear of the regime and alternatives to the CCP.
Andrew Nathan Lai, a leading U.S. expert on China and professor of political science at Columbia University (video screenshot)
Taiwan and Xi Jinping – the key to the CCP’s renewal
The new pneumonia epidemic has not become a “Chernobyl moment” for the CCP to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union and disintegrate its regime, but Andrew Lai says the key to the CCP’s regime is Taiwan and Xi Jinping.
He said in the report that if the Communist Party waged a war against Taiwan and lost, it would be humiliating for the regime and would anger the public; an illness or accident that would affect Xi could also trigger a crisis that would extend his term in 2022.
But according to Lai, the CCP cares about regime stability and will do its best to ensure that these accidents do not happen, and outsiders should not bet on a crisis of legitimacy in order to bring change to China as soon as possible.
Gitt, for one, said Xi Jinping would see unifying Taiwan as part of his important political legacy in pursuit of the Chinese dream of great national rejuvenation. But with Xi Jinping’s centralization of power in one place and no term limits, he can wait on the Taiwan issue. According to Gitt, Xi would avoid risking a war against Taiwan, “Chinese history shows that if they cannot secure a victory in a short Time, I think they are unlikely to take the risky move of attacking Taiwan because if they fail, it would destroy the stability of the Communist regime.”
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