Editor’s note.
As the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities move farther and farther down the road of “Taiwan independence,” under the “drums” of the U.S. “Indo-Pacific strategy,” Tsai has misjudged the current cross-strait situation, leading Taiwan into the Militaristic wars and “reliance on the United States for independence” have made the situation in the Taiwan Strait “dangerously dangerous”. In addition, the KMT is also moving closer to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in its position on cross-strait relations, making the prospect of peaceful reunification basically lost. However, as General Secretary Xi Jinping said, “The motherland must be reunified, and will certainly be reunified. But how to achieve reunification? The following is an important article written exclusively for the readers of the People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) newspaper by Mr. Wang Zaixi, former Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and Vice Chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), on the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and the future road to reunification.
In the recent period, due to the frequent playing of the “Taiwan card” by the United States, the continuous sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan, and the elevation of the official nature of U.S.-Taiwan relations, the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces on the island have become arrogant. “The road goes further and further away. In order to curb “Taiwan independence”, the PLA recently held high-intensity land, sea and air combat drills in the four coastal waters of the mainland respectively, the PLA Air Force planes arrived near the center line of the strait to patrol around Taiwan, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait seems to be a bit rattled, let people have a feeling of imminent. At the same time, the mainland is increasingly vocal in advocating for martial reunification and wants to use force to take Taiwan as soon as possible. How exactly do we view this current increasingly grim situation in the Taiwan Strait? How should we respond? It has become a hot topic of general interest.
Will there be a reunification of Taiwan by force? The latest judgment of the former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council
Wang Zaixi, former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and former vice president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS)
U.S.-Taiwan mutual use is the root cause of the tension in the Taiwan Strait.
In recent years, the Trump Administration of the United States has frequently played the Taiwan card and used the Taiwan issue to exert pressure on us in order to pursue a strategy of strong containment against China. In addition to selling Taiwan advanced and offensive weapons and equipment on a large scale, they have openly sent the Secretary of Health and the Under Secretary of State to visit Taiwan, continuously enhancing the nature of the official and semi-official relations between the United States and Taiwan, and the U.S. Congress has also passed a series of Taiwan-related legal documents that clearly interfere with China’s internal affairs, deliberately sending false signals to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, and giving Tsai and his wife the opportunity to make their own decision. The English authorities have been emboldened. At present, there has been a major adjustment in the U.S. strategic objectives towards Taiwan, from maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as far as possible, to deliberately creating military tensions in the Taiwan Strait; in its policy towards Taiwan, the U.S. has changed from “not supporting Taiwan independence” to condoning and encouraging “Taiwan independence”. The United States and Taiwan are now engaged in separatist activities by the “one China” forces; the original “adherence to the one-China policy” towards China has changed to a constant violation of the bottom line; and U.S.-Taiwan relations have changed from being purely civilian to being quasi-official and semi-official.
The US-Taiwan relationship has turned from a purely civilian one to an official and semi-official one. The Tsai Ing-wen administration, flattered by the US’ promotion of the relationship between the US and Taiwan, sees the US’ strategy of strong containment of China as a rare opportunity to close the relationship between Taiwan and the US. Tsai Ing-wen is well aware that Taiwan can no longer compete with the mainland by relying solely on its own power, and is trying to resist cross-strait reunification by defecting to the United States and using its power to seek “Taiwan independence” step by step by wiping the ball and cutting sausages. To this end, Tsai’s administration has been stirring up hostility toward the mainland, restricting cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, suppressing organizations and individuals that advocate exchanges and cooperation with the mainland, labeling them “Chinese Communist Party proxies” at every turn, and engaging in green terror. Tsai Ing-wen’s “relying on the United States to resist China and using military force to seek independence” has plunged the situation in the Taiwan Strait into the most serious and complicated situation in 70 years. From this, we can see that the United States, in order to contain China, is using the Taiwan issue to create problems for us by all means, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities, in order to achieve their goal of secession for “Taiwan independence”, are willing to lure wolves into their homes, act as traitors, and even provoke the mainland, which is the fundamental reason why the situation in the Taiwan Strait tends to be tense at present.
In fact, it is impossible for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities to resist reunification and seek protection by spending huge sums of money to purchase advanced weapons from the United States. The reason is that the gap between Taiwan and the mainland in terms of comprehensive strength is already very wide, and no amount of weapons purchases from the United States can fundamentally change the strategic pattern of strong land and weak Taiwan and Taiwan’s military disadvantage. In the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, although both sides of the Taiwan Strait will suffer losses to varying degrees, it will be unbearable for Taiwan, and the United States will reap the benefits of the conflict.
The relationship between “unification” and “unification by force”
Forty years ago, Comrade Deng Xiaoping proposed a policy of peaceful reunification towards Taiwan to replace the policy of liberating Taiwan by force that had been upheld for the previous 30 years. It should be said that the policy of peaceful reunification towards Taiwan was the right one, because at that time Taiwan was ruled by the Kuomintang and Chiang Ching-kuo (Chiang Ching-kuo) was the only one who made the decision, and Chiang Ching-kuo’s position on upholding one China and advocating national reunification was the same as that of the mainland. Therefore, the proposal of “striving for Guomindang negotiations and peaceful reunification of China” was also realistic and feasible at that time. From the objective point of view, adhering to the policy of peaceful reunification towards Taiwan has bought our country 40 years of valuable time for reform and opening up, economic development and military construction.
However, the situation on the island of Taiwan has now undergone fundamental changes, and the possibility of peaceful reunification is diminishing. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates independence, has moved from off-stage to on-stage and is now in full power in Taiwan, while the Kuomintang (KMT), which opposes independence, has lost its power. Balance of power. Secondly, no political party in Taiwan can now negotiate reunification with the mainland on behalf of the Taiwanese people, given the partisan strife within the island. Thirdly, Tsai Ing-wen, the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, does not even recognize the principle of “one China across the Taiwan Strait” and is unlikely to negotiate reunification with the mainland.
In that case, can the Taiwan issue be resolved only through war? I think that there is a third option, which is the “Beiping model” that I have proposed before, that is, to make peace through war, to promote unification through military force, to bring the troops to the city and to subdue them without fighting. In this way, casualties can be minimized and costs reduced to a minimum. But in any case, without using military force as a means, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of cross-strait reunification just by relying on political negotiation, civil exchanges and giving away everything. Of course, no matter whether it is unification or armed reunification in the future, we still have to insist on winning the hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan and doing the work of the Taiwanese people, we still have to talk when it is time to negotiate, we still have to continue to promote cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, and we still have to implement the policy of benefiting Taiwan, but we should understand that the key to move from secession to reunification is strength, which is also a hard truth. But even so, for the time being, we should still strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and effort, and do our utmost until the very last moment, while at the same time being fully prepared to crush “Taiwan independence” secessionist attempts at any time. The right of initiative.
The question of whether and when to use force to resolve the Taiwan question is not a purely military issue, but a strategic and overall political issue, and the question of peaceful reunification and the use of force are themselves two sides of the same coin, interrelated in a dialectical relationship. When Comrade Deng Xiaoping proposed the policy of peaceful reunification back then, he had a very complete statement, namely, to strive for peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait through negotiations between the Communist Party of China and the People’s Republic of China, but never to promise to give up the use of force against Taiwan. If the use of force against Taiwan is abandoned, on the contrary, it will make peaceful reunification impossible. From this, we can clearly see that the policy of peaceful reunification proposed by Comrade Deng Xiaoping is premised and conditional, and is closely linked to the use of force. In striving for peaceful reunification, we must not give up the use of force, and when forced to use force, we must not neglect winning the hearts and minds of the people, and must always adhere to the principle of “attacking the heart from the top and the city from the bottom.
Choosing the right time to achieve national reunification
There are currently three different views on the timing of reunification, as follows. One view is that there is no hurry, take things slowly, wait for the melon to ripen and come to fruition, and that Taiwan will naturally reunite with the mainland as long as the mainland’s economic strength develops to the extent that the United States has today. The second is to solve the Taiwan issue first, and then focus on economic development, the long pain is better than the short pain, now should use force to solve the Taiwan issue once and for all, so that the Chinese nation to raise their eyebrows. The third idea is to resolve the Taiwan question with a sense of urgency, but also not too hasty, not only with confidence, but also with a certain degree of patience, to grasp the strategic initiative, to find the best, or at least relatively favorable timing for me. Realizing the reunification of the motherland is the greatest dream of all Chinese people, and it is also our unswerving goal. The “five-point proposal” put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the conference held on 2 January last year to commemorate the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the “Proclamation to the Taiwan Compatriots” has in fact made a strategic arrangement for resolving the Taiwan question and realizing the reunification of the motherland. General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that the motherland must be reunified, and will certainly be reunified. During his recent visit to Chaozhou to inspect the Marine Corps, General Secretary Xi Jinping specifically stressed, “We should put all our thoughts and energy into preparing for war and maintain a high state of readiness.” As China has developed today, we are basically equipped with the strength and conditions to resolve the Taiwan question, and are fully prepared to crush the secessionist attempt of “Taiwan independence” at any time, and Taiwan’s “independence” is no longer possible. It is precisely because we have such an underlying strength that we can resolve the Taiwan question with greater ease.
How do we view the KMT’s recent cross-strait policy adjustments?
The KMT’s recent proposals in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan calling for a “return of diplomatic relations” between the U.S. and Taiwan and requesting the U.S. to “assist in the defense of Taiwan” have sparked heated discussions among mainland compatriots, who generally believe that the KMT’s A major adjustment has been made to the mainland policy, and the Kuomintang’s traditional position on unification and independence has undergone a qualitative change, that is, from the original “one China, separate formulations” to openly seeking the coexistence of “two Chinas”. Adherence to the one-China principle and the pursuit of national reunification (i.e., the “1992 Consensus”) have been the most important basic consensus between us and the KMT for a long time. This consensus has been compromised ever since Ma Ying-jeou proposed “neither unification nor independence”. Now the KMT not only does not seek reunification, but also abandons even the one-China principle, which is indeed a serious problem. Even the DPP administration’s “Foreign Minister” Wu Zhao Xie has stated that he is not seeking to establish formal “diplomatic relations” with the United States at this time, yet the KMT is proposing a Taiwan-US “resumption of diplomatic relations”, which is really a bit absurd. Walk the plank.
As the Kuomintang has lost two important elections in Taiwan in recent years, there have been strong calls for thorough reform and rejuvenation within the party. Regrettably, the KMT has not learned its lessons correctly and blamed the “1992 Consensus” as the main reason for its two electoral defeats, which is obviously a wrong prescription. In fact, the main reason for the KMT’s defeat is firstly, the lack of internal unity and synergy within the KMT, and secondly, the KMT’s inability to put forward a statement that is different from the DPP and that can gain the approval of the voters. In March this year, after the 48-year-old Jiang Qichen was elected chairman of the KMT, he set up a “reform committee” and proposed a “new discourse” on cross-strait policy, the so-called “four pillars”. It is not the case that the Chinese Government has not accepted the “one country, two systems” consensus. The “new discourse” begins with the view that the “1992 Consensus” has fulfilled its historical mission, clearly states that it does not accept “one country, two systems”, and demands that the mainland recognize “one country, two systems”. The Republic of China is a sovereign country”, and also calls for the restoration of Taiwan’s seat in the United Nations and the “maintenance of peace and stability with the mainland on a pro-American basis”. It seems this is not a matter of being sick and tired of being sick and tired, but has indeed lost its way and is very sick.
The Kuomintang, a century-old institution with a 126-year history spanning three centuries, is now in the process of replacing the old with the new. The majority of KMT members, including most of the seniors, still advocate adherence to the “1992 Consensus” and the development of relations with the mainland. If we seek unity through struggle, unity will survive. We should not only resolutely fight against the abandonment of the one-China principle within the KMT, but also unite the insightful people within the KMT to oppose the split of “Taiwan independence”.
(The author is the former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and former vice chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait)
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