With more than a year to go before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the candidates for the Politburo have also started to become the focus of attention while the change of provincial officials is accelerating. A well-known U.S. think tank recently used big data to analyze the CCP’s official restructuring and predict personnel trends for the 20th National Congress, saying that Ying Yong and Chen Yiqin are particularly important.
Ying Yong
The 20th Communist Party Congress, due to be held in the second half of 2022, is seen as a major advancement opportunity for the Communist Party’s top officials and key central government officials. Nearly half of the Central Politburo, the core of the CCP’s power, is expected to change hands by then.
For this reason, Xi Jinping is making massive adjustments to local personnel in 2020. According to the United Daily News, 2020 is the most intensive year for local officials since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with 27 local officials changing positions in various provinces, including nearly 60% of the first and second in command in November and December alone.
Many of the new local officials are prepared for the next Politburo position.
In addition, this year there will be at least 7 provinces of the provincial party committee secretary due to the age of the replacement, including Inner Mongolia regional party committee secretary Shi Taifeng, Tibetan regional party committee secretary Wu Yingjie, Jiangsu provincial party committee secretary Lou Qinjian, Shandong provincial party committee secretary Liu Jiayi, Henan provincial party committee secretary Wang Guosheng, Guangxi regional party committee secretary Lu Xinshe, Gansu provincial party committee secretary Lin Duo.
Many of them are considered to be more likely to be in the Politburo of the large population and economic provinces, as well as the border areas, so this year’s Communist Party officialdom is expected to have some fierce competition.
The U.S.-based Marco Polo think tank has set up a project to study the personnel trends of the CPC Central Committee, using big data such as the career trajectories of CPC officials to predict the candidates for the next CPC Central Politburo.
Among them, Ying Yong, who was promoted from mayor of Shanghai to secretary of the CPC Hubei Provincial Committee, and Chen Yiqin, who was promoted from governor of Guizhou to secretary of the Guizhou Provincial Committee, are particularly important because they are both close to Xi Jinping and will both be under 68 years old in 2022, according to the study.
According to the study, Ying Yong, as a former member of Xi Jinping’s party, has the highest chance of being promoted to the Politburo in 2022, while Chen Yiqin, who has no direct contact with Xi Jinping, has the advantage of being both a woman and a member of the ethnic minority (Bai), and is the only female candidate to replace Sun Chunlan, the only female Politburo member currently scheduled to retire in 2022.
Chen Yiqin
In addition, Chen Yiqin has close ties with Xi Jinping’s cronies Li Zhanshu and Chen Miner in Guizhou’s official circles, which also adds points to her promotion.
The study also pointed out that 18 provincial governments will change their governors or municipality heads in 2020. Among them, Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng is most likely to enter the Politburo.
If Xi Jinping wants to achieve tenure and stay in power after the 20th Communist Party Congress, he must further consolidate power through personnel adjustments.
As is customary in the CCP, the vast majority of local officials who can cross the threshold of the 20th National Congress will be in place between the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022.
Therefore, as Time progresses, the CCP political arena could be in for another bloodbath. However, the new crown virus that is now spreading across China could change all that.
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