The global economy started 2021 in a tougher position than expected, mainly due to the surge in the new pneumonia Epidemic and the protracted vaccine administration.
Although the global economy is still rebounding rapidly from last year’s recession, it may take longer to regain the heat, and the economy is not as healthy as originally expected. The World Bank this month has revised this year’s global economic growth forecast to 4%, and the International Monetary Fund this week will also release the latest “World Economic Outlook (WEO)” report.
Japan, the eurozone and the United Kingdom are expected to fall into a “double-dip recession” because the spread of the epidemic has brought economic activity under control. The U.S. is also experiencing a record high number of new cases, dragging down retail spending and employment. China is showing a “V-shaped” recovery, but consumers are not taking it lightly due to a partial ban in Beijing.
Bloomberg information collection of high frequency data show that the advanced countries are quite difficult economic early this year, emerging economies are divergent performance. Chief economist Olick said, “This reflects the stark reality; it is unlikely that the economy can be expected to return to normal until vaccines are generally administered”.
The U.S., the U.K. and the eurozone are distributing vaccines, which will result in herd immunization in some countries around the world, but others are lagging behind, especially the poorer ones. The World health Organization warns that rich countries must help developing countries accelerate their vaccine programs or their economies will suffer.
WHO pointed out that if poor countries maintain the current rate of vaccine coverage, it is estimated that advanced countries will lose US$2.4 trillion in gross domestic production a year compared to before the epidemic, as international trade and supply chains will be disrupted.
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