The direction of China in 2021 is in a high degree of uncertainty.
The biggest shock comes from the Epidemic. If the epidemic is manageable, China’s status quo seems to be sustainable for some Time; if the epidemic escalates only in limited localized areas, the CCP’s current “dictatorship against the epidemic” – city closures and wartime status – can barely cope; if a second epidemic breaks out, the CCP regime is bound to collapse. At the same time, the wisdom, courage, and choices of the Chinese people to walk through the calamity will also face a serious challenge.
Specifically, the impact of the epidemic will intensify three major contradictions in China in 2021: a small one will lead to political fluctuations; a medium one will lead to political shake-ups; and a large one will lead to sudden political changes. The following is a breakdown of the three major contradictions.
First, this basic contradiction between the Chinese people and the Communist regime has been the central factor in determining the political direction of China since the Communist Party stole the country, but it has been difficult to manifest for a long time.
Due to the extremes of social control, such as “branches built on companies,” monopoly of economic lifelines by state-owned enterprises, state control of land, collectivization of the countryside, the household registration system, the ban on the Party, the ban on newspapers, and so on, the CCP has taken over the Chinese people, and it has been difficult for them to effectively resist. With the end of the Cultural Revolution and the “reform and opening up” of the CCP to a certain extent, the Chinese people regained some vitality and their resistance culminated in the June Fourth Incident in 1989. Despite the bloody crackdown, the foundations of the CCP’s rule were shaken.
Immediately afterwards, the collapse of the Soviet communist regime and the policy of “making a fortune out of boredom” by the Jiang Zemin administration plunged China into a sea of materialistic desires. However, at this time, Falun Gong was introduced, and hundreds of millions of people practiced “True Compassion and Forbearance” in seven years, leading to the rebirth of China. However, Jiang Zemin’s jealousy and the CCP’s arrogant and perverted mentality to control everything have pushed each other to take the risk of persecuting Falun Gong until today. The CCP’s most evil tactics, including live organ harvesting, have failed to stifle the awakening of the people. The peaceful and rational anti-persecution of Falun Gong at Home and abroad for more than twenty years has marked the final stage of the Chinese people’s self-help and dismantling of the CCP. In this process, the “Three Retreats” of the Communist Party, League, and Team swept through China, with 370 million people publicly declaring their “Three Retreats” to date, and the movement of spiritual awakening of the Chinese people culminated.
The 2021 epidemic, no matter how big or small, is due to the CCP’s rigid and inhumane model of fighting the epidemic (creating a massive disaster for people’s livelihoods) and the unique characteristics of the current pandemic – “the virus is targeting the CCP” – both of which have intensified the conflict between the Chinese people’s self-help and the CCP’s dictatorship.
Second, the contradiction between the various forces within the CCP. The philosophy of struggle is in the genes of the CCP, which has been fighting all the time since its birth, from Mao Zedong’s “ten line struggles” to Xi Jinping‘s “great struggle”.
Since the end of 2019, the epidemic has intensified the CCP’s infighting in two ways: on the one hand, anti-Xi forces inside and outside the Party have united to blame Xi Jinping for his incompetence in handling the situation, which led to a major disaster (a prominent case is the heavy sentence imposed by Xi authorities on Ren Zhiqiang); on the other hand, the epidemic has fully exposed the inherent flaws of the CCP system, which forced Xi authorities to take political high-handed measures (a prominent case is when Wuhan was closed to the public and Xi sent his close friend Chen Xinxin, secretary-general of the Central Committee of Political and Legal Affairs, to lead a central steering group to Hubei).
If the epidemic is relatively stable in 2021, the internal struggle will be mainly about the change of government; if the epidemic is seriously escalated, the change of government may be postponed and the issue of accountability and how to deal with the epidemic will become the main content of the internal struggle; if the epidemic is in full swing, the CCP regime will collapse.
Only 20 days into 2021, Xi Jinping has already emphasized “political judgment, political comprehension, and political execution” three times, signaling that the CCP’s infighting in 2021 is endless.
Third, a fatal flaw in the CCP system is the conflict between the central and local levels. From Mao Zedong’s “On Ten Relations” to the Xi Jinping era’s division of central and local authority, the CCP’s central-local relationship is a mess.
For example, the central government has too little direct authority. Although the CCP is a centralized system, the center of gravity of power is actually lower down, and the phenomenon of “county officials are better than the present administration” and “government orders do not leave Zhongnanhai” has its institutional roots. Another example is that the sub-provincial financial system in unitary countries is mostly managed directly by the central government to consolidate the central authority and ensure the smooth flow of government orders; however, in the CCP, it is determined by the provincial governments “taking into account the local reality”, which is a huge potential problem.
It is very difficult for the CCP to deal with the pandemic with such a centralized local system. In the year 2020, chaos is already rampant. Haven’t we seen local governments looting medical masks in many places? And the provinces are fighting the epidemic to protect themselves, as if they are trapped in local secession. For example, since Wuhan was closed, many places in the country have followed suit, with “provincial closure” measures in Egan, Liaoning and Anhui, and “city closure” in more than 80 cities, and “closed management” in almost every village and community. “Even in remote mountain villages, roadblocks were set up to check pedestrians passing by.
If there is a second full-scale outbreak in 2021, and the whole country is “Wuhanized,” this zombie-like system of the CCP will collapse very quickly. This would be a fatal blow to the Chinese Communist regime.
Conclusion
China, like the rest of the world, is at high risk in 2021. But because the CCP relies on violence and lies to govern, the risks to the Chinese people are many times greater than those to people in other normal countries.
The Chinese people must save themselves. Only if the Chinese people have a strong sense of self-help, the plague can be transformed into an opportunity for Life.
Good and evil are just a thought away. If the pandemic ravages China in 2021, it will be a blessing for the Chinese Communist authorities and for the country if they can retain their humanity and make the right choice.
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