On January 22, 2021, the National Foundation for Policy Research (NFPR) held a symposium on “Changes and Changes in U.S. Cross-Strait Policy” to discuss the Biden administration’s cross-strait policy.
The new U.S. President Joe Biden did not touch on the issue of cross-strait policy in his inaugural address, but Taiwan scholars believe that Biden will not address the domestic economy and the Epidemic before dealing with U.S.-China and cross-strait relations. The U.S. is expected to revert to its Obama-era strategy toward Taiwan, but will emphasize Taiwan’s security and international engagement. The Biden Administration‘s China Policy will ease relations between the two sides and bring an opportunity for cross-strait reconciliation. (By Chung Kwong-ching, Taipei)
The National Taiwan Policy Research Foundation (NTRF) held a symposium on Friday (22) on “Changes and Changes in U.S. Cross-Strait Policy” to discuss the Biden administration’s vision and approach to cross-strait policy and how Taiwan should respond to the new cross-strait situation.
Lin Yu-fang, convenor of the foundation’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Group, said that his view differs from the mainstream opinion of the outside world. He believes that the Biden administration will not wait to deal with domestic issues before focusing on foreign affairs, because the United States is a superpower with important interests to defend in many parts of the world, and also has the responsibility and need to take the initiative or be reactive in solving many international issues.
On January 22, 2021, Lin Yu-fang, convenor of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Group of the National Foundation for Policy Studies: The Biden administration will use the Taiwan Relations Act and the Three Communiqués as the keynote of the one-China policy. (Photo by Chung Kwong-ching)
Lin Yu-fang said: For example, there is also the U.S.-China relationship, which involves a very serious economic and trade confrontation, economic and trade disputes. And in the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Strait U.S. military aircraft and naval vessels, and the Chinese Communist Party‘s military aircraft and naval vessels are also constantly confronting each other, these issues probably can not be idle aside, and wait for the internal affairs to deal with. So I really don’t think the Biden administration will put diplomacy aside and focus on solving the epidemic and the so-called economic uplift.
Lin Yu-fang said, the United States and China reconciliation at the same Time, is also an opportunity for cross-strait reconciliation, the Democratic Progressive Party supporters do not have to worry about the United States and China reconciliation will hurt Taiwan. The U.S. and China will continue to compete, so Taiwan’s importance will not be reduced, Taiwan is an important bargaining chip for the United States in dealing with China. It is also good for Taiwan that the U.S.-China relationship is becoming more stable and predictable.
He Siin, a professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, said that Secretary of State Blinken, when responding to the Taiwan issue at the parliamentary hearing on the appointment of people, the content was exactly the same as during the Obama era, emphasizing the Taiwan Relations Act and the three U.S.-China communiqués. He believes that the Biden administration’s China policy will not be like the Trump administration’s pushing Taiwan to the foreground, but will be placed in the background, like a slow stew inside a pot.
In addition, U.S. think-tank scholar Laiyi Ge said in a media interview that after Biden’s inauguration, U.S.-Taiwan relations are expected to return to a low profile, with Washington doing more and saying less, and pursuing a policy of not hurting Taiwan, unlike the former President Trump Administration, which used Taiwan as a stick against China from time to time.
Greer also believes that Beijing will do its best to force the Biden administration to make concessions, such as asking the U.S. to more clearly define its one-China policy, committing not to pursue the “two Chinas” policy, and setting boundaries for unofficial relations between the U.S. and Taiwan. But she expects that the Biden administration will stand firm and not cave in to Beijing’s pressure.
In response to Gloria Ge’s remarks, Lin Yu-fang believes that mainland China has always asked the new U.S. administration to explain the one-China policy, especially when there are new activities in U.S.-Taiwan relations, Beijing has made such requests, and we should all be accustomed to it.
Lin Yu-fang pointed out that the U.S. position has been very clear in the past few days, and Biden has not made harsh criticism of mainland China so far, and the speeches of Biden administration officials have been milder than expected by Taiwanese scholars, and have emphasized the Taiwan Relations Act and the three communiqués as the tone of the one-China policy.
Lin Yu-fang said: He often encounters the most sensitive and troublesome issues related to cross-strait relations, his standard speech is this, a law and three communiqués, that’s why I think Obama’s style is back. So I don’t really think that the United States has what to shake off the problem, that is, the United States will return to the Obama era, the relationship with Taiwan is to maintain friendly, one China issue above this is their principle, but the same time they will emphasize the importance of Taiwan’s security, the importance of peace, this is what he will emphasize, and will allow Taiwan to participate in some of the meetings not composed of sovereign states.
Lin Yu-fang pointed out that Blinken mentioned in the hearing that he supports Taiwan’s participation in international organizations that are not composed of sovereign countries, and if they are composed of sovereign countries, he will assist Taiwan to participate in other ways, for example, as a VIP at the triennial ICAO General Assembly. This speech has made it clear that the United States will not support Taiwan’s independence.
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