In a recent survey, the Institute for Foreign Relations (IFR), a U.S. think tank, listed the world’s likely armed conflicts in 2021. The Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, China-India border and South China Sea were all listed as areas with a high incidence of armed conflict. After 2020, North Korea was again ranked as a country with a high probability of armed conflict and a high impact on the United States.
According to international media, U.S. foreign affairs experts agree that North Korea’s recent actions have a high chance of triggering an armed conflict in 2021 due to its continued development of nuclear and missile technology. Most experts believe that North Korea will not push for denuclearization as expected by the international community, and past experience even shows that North Korea may further develop nuclear weapons in order to pressure the United States, so they are concerned that the conflict on the Korean Peninsula could evolve into a major crisis.
The survey also raises the likelihood of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait to the highest level in 2021. This is also the highest chance of conflict in the Taiwan Strait since the survey was produced by the Institute of Foreign Relations in 2008. According to the survey, the possibility of conflict between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party on Taiwan issues is increasing due to the Chinese Communist Party’s continued political and economic pressure on Taiwan.
In addition, the survey report of the Institute of Foreign Relations also listed the Sino-Indian border conflict, which has continued since the middle of last year, as a potential armed conflict that the world must pay attention to. Experts say that in 2020, for the first Time in years, India and China will have a bloody conflict on the border. “The findings reflect U.S. experts’ concern about the escalating conflict, but also show that most experts are pessimistic about the two countries’ efforts to resolve the dispute.
As for the chances of conflict in the South China Sea, the Institute for Foreign Relations downgraded them in its report. This indicates that both countries are aware of the risk of conflict in the South China Sea, so the Chinese Communist Party will not take a stronger stance in the South China Sea, and the United States will be cautious in its maritime activities in the region.
However, some experts believe that the report of the Institute of Foreign Relations underestimates the possibility of a conflict between the United States and China in the South China Sea.
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