The black swan that will fly in 2021…

Theoretical astrophysicist Valentina Zharkova published a paper in 2015 announcing the discovery that the Sun’s magnetic field is made up of two sub-magnetic waves at different depths within the Sun. The interaction of the two magnetic waves amplifies or weakens the magnetic field. Based on these studies, Professor Zharkova projects that the Earth is beginning to enter a long dormant period of solar activity. She notes that from 2020 to 2053, the next three cycles of solar activity, the magnetic field will become weak because the two sub-magnetic S-waves will each move apart to the northern and southern hemispheres and will not interact. This means that the generated magnetic field will drop dramatically to near zero, resulting in a phenomenon similar to the Maunder Minimum.

Professor Zharkova was criticized from all sides after her paper was published, saying that her prediction that the Earth is about to enter a mini-ice age is the opposite of today’s warming theory. It’s okay, we don’t have to wait long, the next five to ten years will prove who’s right and who’s wrong,” she said, laughing, adding that it remains to be seen whether Professor Zharkova’s theories and predictions will come true. However, the signs of solar cycles 22, 23 and 24 (with decreasing wave heights) show that solar activity has fallen rapidly from the Modern Solar Maximum (the period of the recent solar maximum, from around 1950 to around 2000, when the wave heights of sunspot numbers were significantly higher).

The recently concluded Cycle 24, with a lower number of sunspots than in the past 100 years, is already a very extreme state, and Professor Zharkova’s prediction should be coming true. This supports Professor Zharkova’s theories.

From my personal point of view, the 2020 plague pandemic is the most solid support for Prof. Zharkova. It stems from the fact that during the extended sunspot minima, the solar radiation is very low for a long time, providing the basic conditions for a viral pandemic, which is the source of the pandemic outbreak during each extended sunspot minima. The converse is also true, since the virus has already experienced a global pandemic, or is evidence that solar activity is already in a state of extreme depression.

Now, the question that needs to be asked of all people is, what is the basis of human existence?

It is undoubtedly the sun.

The sun radiates energy to the earth, and plants (crops) act as energy collectors, collecting solar energy through photosynthesis, providing not only the basis for human survival (food), but also the basis on which the great world can show vibrant life. Without solar light, nothing living should exist on Earth.

Since the weakening of solar radiation is the cause of the global pandemic of plague, when the solar radiation is weakened, the efficiency of photosynthesis will decline, the supply of energy for plants and animals will decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually come to the fore, how does this contradiction between supply and demand show which?

In the period of weak solar radiation, photosynthesis efficiency decreases, agricultural pests and diseases intensify, resulting in damage to agricultural production; in the period of weak solar radiation, viruses transmitted between livestock and poultry can easily spread, resulting in increased loss of agricultural products and a decline in the production of meat and eggs (this is the biggest threat in 2021, since the virus transmitted between people has become pandemic, the virus transmitted between animals can easily appear ), etc. This allows the production of plant and animal energy to fall, which will be reflected in the international market as a decline in supply and a rise in demand, and when the prices of grains and meat in exporting countries rise too quickly, it will lead to the intensification of the basic contradictions in their countries, which will act at this time.

In the third quarter of last year, the Russian people’s income fell by an average of 4.8% year-on-year, but in November, Russian grain rose by an average of 5.8%, with bread, flour and sunflower oil rising by 6.3%, 12.9% and 23.8% respectively, causing prices to rise for reasons clearly related to the imbalance between international supply and demand. In order to suppress domestic conflicts, Putin began to restrict grain exports. on February 1, Russia will begin to impose a 30% tariff on exported soybeans. from mid-February to the end of June, Russia will impose an export tariff of 25 euros (about 200 yuan) per ton on wheat. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture plans to implement a quota limit of no more than 15 million tons of total exportable wheat, rye, corn and barley from Feb. 15 to June 30, 2021 (which is much lower than the normal export figure for the same period) as a way to curb the rise in grain prices within Russia. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, accounting for about 20% of global trade. Russia’s move to control exports will not only drive wheat and soybean prices on the international market, but will also seriously worsen the supply and demand situation internationally.

The United States, Brazil, Canada, Russia and Argentina are the world’s most important suppliers of grains and meat, and not only Russia is taking action, but Argentina has also done so. Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture announced that the country will suspend corn exports until March 1, 2021. The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture made it very clear that this decision was made suddenly mainly to ensure that there is sufficient local food. In other words, the landowner’s family does not have much food in stock and has to take care of itself first.

Argentina is the world’s third largest supplier of corn. 33% export tax on soybeans has been reinstated in Argentina since January 1, 2021.

Vietnam, the world’s third largest rice exporter, has seen a rare sight due to its lack of domestic rice supply – it has started importing rice from its rival India for the first time in decades. When the original exporters started importing, the repercussions were, of course, bad.

As far as I know personally, meat prices in Canada are also rising rapidly, by about 30-40% in the past six months. The rapid rise in food prices will lead to social tensions and public opinion will gradually put pressure on the “small potatoes”, and the time for Canada to control grain and meat exports may not be far off. There are similarities between the U.S. and Canada, so watch out for what the U.S. will do in the future.

When exporting countries continue to restrict exports, the price of grains and meat on the international market will eventually enter a phase of accelerated increase, and when money can not buy grains and meat, famine will break out.

This may be the basis for the World Food Program’s warning on April 21, 2020, that the epidemic would trigger a “biblical proportions food crisis.

After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, billions of people around the world were grounded, countless companies went bankrupt, countless people lost their jobs, the global industrial chain was severely damaged, but relying on the government printing money but asset prices blew up, equivalent to building a building on the beach, what is the biggest worry at this time?

Interest rates rise beyond expectations.

Since economic globalization, global capital has controlled inflation and interest rates in two ways: first, by increasing debt in the government, corporate and household sectors, which controls demand; and second, by increasing the supply of global commodities when the global supply of energy (including fossil energy, plant and animal energy formed by solar radiation) is stable. Let inflation be moderate when supply and demand are stable.

But the global pandemic of the plague caused a dramatic disruption of the global industrial chain, which destroyed the global supply system. In addition, in order to save the political and economic systems of countries from collapse under the circumstances of the plague pandemic, the central banks carried out crazy money printing, which is the source of runaway inflation. In the past six months, the rise in agricultural prices in Chicago (the rate of increase), which is rare in the past 20 to 30 years, is foreshadowing future inflation.

The world is already a mess in 2020, but 2021 doesn’t seem to be messy enough for 2020, as senior WHO official Mike Ryan said on Jan. 13 that the second year of the new coronavirus (also known as the Chinese Communist virus, COVID-19) epidemic could be worse than the first year. That means the disruption to the global chain will go even deeper, making the global supply system for commodities (especially essential goods) even worse.

So, 2021 is likely to be the year when inflation starts to spiral out of control, with a sharp rise in funding rates. This will lead to a drying up of market liquidity and a rapid and rapid downward movement in asset prices, allowing a rapid accumulation of bad loans within the banking sector.

JPMorgan already expects U.S. inflation to rise above 3% in 2021, well above current market expectations, so let’s see if more institutions will follow suit next and also see if the target inflation rate for 2021 and 2022 will be raised quickly.

2021, will be even weirder than 2020 ……