The Institute for Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank, has released a report that lists the outbreak of a serious crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan as the highest level of potential global conflict. (Image source: taken from the “Council on Foreign Relations”)
The Institute for Foreign Relations (CFR), a U.S. think tank, released its 2021 Preventive Priorities Survey report on the 14th, listing 30 potential points of conflict around the world in 2021 and the impact on U.S. interests, with North Korea ranked first in terms of “high probability” and “high impact” as the first level of risk; the risk of a U.S.-China-Taiwan crisis was ranked the highest level of potential global conflict for the first time.
The report, which began last November, asked foreign policy experts to list 30 potential crisis or conflict factors around the world and assess the chances of conflict in the coming year and the impact on U.S. interests. The risk assessment scale is divided into three levels according to the chance of occurrence and the degree of impact on interests.
According to comprehensive media reports, North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests have led to rising military tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which is assessed as the number one concern with a high probability of occurrence and serious impact on U.S. interests this year.
In addition, due to the increasing political and economic pressure exerted by the Chinese Communist Party on Taiwan, the chance of a serious crisis between the Chinese Communist Party and the United States has also risen. Experts ranked the risk of a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan in 2021 as the first level, which is expected to have a medium chance of occurring this year and cause a serious impact on U.S. interests. This is the first time since Taiwan was included in the report in 2019, the highest level in the global potential conflict.
In contrast, the risk of an armed confrontation between the U.S. military and the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea was downgraded from a Level 1 risk to a Level 2 risk, the only event among the 30 potential crisis or conflict factors listed in the report that experts believe has a reduced chance of occurring in the coming year. In addition, a conflict between the Chinese Communist Party and India made the list for the first time. According to Wind Media, this shows that the most likely location for a dispute in U.S.-China relations is in Taiwan, which will also have the greatest impact and influence on the United States.
In addition, Afghanistan, Syria, the deterioration of the internal situation in Venezuela, as well as the outbreak of armed confrontation between Iran and the United States, Russia’s intervention or intimidation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries so that military tensions rise, and terrorist attacks resulting in mass casualties on U.S. soil are listed as the first level of risk with a high probability of occurrence and medium impact.
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