Workers walk to the site of the Belene nuclear power plant project in Bulgaria. (Jan. 24, 2013)
The United States has been the world’s top civilian nuclear power for the past several decades, and has long been an international leader in nuclear energy development and construction and related technologies. But a series of signs in recent years suggest that China is rapidly catching up with the United States in this sensitive and critical energy sector. A study published last week by U.S. nuclear energy experts noted that the United States has begun to slow down in the nuclear power sector in recent years, compared with China and Russia.
Since 2000, the report said, a total of 96 nuclear power plants in the world have been connected to the grid, with nearly half of those plants, 45 of them made in China. In addition, of the 54 reactors currently being built in countries around the world, 20 are related to China or Russia, and 13 are of Chinese design.
Strategic Impact of Nuclear Power
The report, entitled “Nuclear Energy in the United States in the Twenty-First Century: A National Security Imperative,” notes that this trend poses a serious geostrategic challenge to the United States. Dr. David Gatti, one of the report’s authors, says the nuclear energy industry is extremely sensitive, and that nuclear reactors used to generate electricity can also be used to extract weapons-grade plutonium metal. On the other side of the coin, nuclear power technology can provide clean and reliable energy with the potential to combat global warming on a large scale, so nuclear power generation is gaining traction with more and more countries.
Unlike other energy investments, he said in an interview with the Voice of America, the construction of nuclear power plants is not only a huge investment, but also a very long cycle, allowing China to build a close relationship with the recipient country for decades.
He said, “Nuclear power plants have a full life cycle of about 60 years from the start of construction, through maintenance, nuclear waste disposal and even to final decommissioning, so it’s a decades-long relationship as China builds partnerships with countries with new economies.”
Data published by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) shows that while the United States currently has the most operable nuclear power plants, with 95, only two are under construction. By comparison, China currently has only 48 operable units, but 11 under construction.
In addition, a report by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association last year also said that with strong government support, China’s nuclear power industry has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years, with China’s installed capacity of units under construction as of the end of December 2019 remaining the world’s No. 1 since at least 2017.
A report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimates that by 2030, China could generate more nuclear power than the United States, which once led the world in nuclear power for more than half a century.
The report says that Chinese nuclear power companies are engaged in commercial activities that will give the Chinese government strategic influence. Successful exports of Chinese nuclear equipment, technology and materials would open the way for China to replicate the success of the U.S. “peaceful uses of atomic energy” program and influence the foreign, energy and technology policies of China’s nuclear partners and customers.
The report says that the longer China’s nuclear reach extends, the more of a voice it will have in global nuclear governance. If China becomes a leading nuclear power in the coming decades, it will demand a corresponding decision-making role in a number of compacts and organizations involved in multilateral technical rulemaking, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. If China achieves a closed nuclear fuel cycle, global governance mechanisms related to nuclear security and nonproliferation may need to be adjusted accordingly to reflect this achievement.
Joshua Massey, a professor of public and international relations at the University of Georgia, said energy security is extremely important to any country, and influencing a country’s energy supply affects its policymaking. Actually taking control of a country’s power grid switches that’s a lot of influence,” he said. China can use that to advise other countries on how they should act, giving them a big say in the process.”
U.S.-China nuclear energy relationship moves from cooperation to restrictions
China first proposed a nuclear power “going global” strategy in 2013, elevating advocacy of nuclear power going global to a national strategy and promoting it along with the “Belt and Road” initiative.
The general manager of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), China’s largest nuclear power engineering and operating company, told Chinese media that 72 countries have developed or are planning to develop nuclear power in light of international nuclear power market demand, with the majority of Belt and Road-related countries.
According to a report by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association on the global layout of nuclear power “going out” projects, all major nuclear power groups in China are now involved in the nuclear power “going out” strategy, actively exploring overseas markets. According to the report, 28 countries along the “Belt and Road” route are planning to develop nuclear power, with as many as 126 units planned. China National Nuclear Corporation, China’s largest nuclear power engineering and operation company, has reached cooperation intentions with nearly 20 countries, including Argentina, the United Kingdom and Pakistan.
The U.S. and China had a lot to do with this sensitive civilian nuclear energy sector during the Obama administration. Former President Barack Obama submitted the text of a 30-year nuclear energy cooperation agreement to Congress in April 2015, hoping to expand exports of nuclear power units to China. Obama said he considered comments and recommendations from various government departments on the agreement and concluded that implementing it would promote “mutual defense and security” without posing undue risk.
TerraPower, the nuclear project company founded by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, has also reached an agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation to build nuclear reactors in China. The project has been put on hold as the U.S. Trump administration has become increasingly wary of China’s use of nuclear energy development to expand its geopolitical influence in recent years.
The Trump administration announced in October 2018 that it would severely restrict the export of civilian nuclear technology to China. U.S. Department of Energy officials have noted that these technologies are being diverted to a new generation of Chinese submarines, aircraft carriers and floating nuclear power plants, advancing the Communist Party’s power projection ambitions. The U.S.-China Civil Nuclear Cooperation Policy Framework, issued and implemented by the Department of Energy, sets clear limits on Chinese technology transfer authorizations and imposes new bans on China in the areas of nuclear energy technology, equipment and components.
Christopher Ford, assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation at the U.S. Department of State, has noted that China’s nuclear energy industry development is based on national strategic goals, not on market economy principles. In a 2019 speech at the Project 2049 Institute, a Washington think tank, he said that China’s “going global” in nuclear energy has a geopolitical agenda, relying on China after other countries have fallen into a deep debt trap. China is relying on China after other countries have fallen into a debt trap.
In a report last April, the U.S. Department of Energy also noted that the U.S. competitive disadvantage in nuclear power has threatened its national security interests. The report, titled “Reshaping America’s Competitive Edge in Nuclear Energy: A Strategy for Securing America’s National Security,” lists China and Russia as major competitors for U.S. nuclear energy exports.
But on the other hand, observers argue that the United States has only begun to focus on this issue in the past year or two, given that China’s nuclear tentacles have extended to almost the entire world. With China looking for opportunities in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and South America, this is now a global issue,” Ross Feingold, a senior consultant at political risk consultancy Washington International Advisors, told the Voice of America. It’s fair to say that the United States has not paid enough attention to this issue in the past few years.”
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