The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported on Jan. 12 that a newly declassified U.S. national security document, obtained exclusively in advance by the agency, revealed previously secret details of the Trump administration’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. Its contents include that the U.S. sees Taiwan as a partner in the first island chain, and that defending the first island chain countries is also part of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
In early 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed the Indo-Pacific strategy developed by his National Security Council through 2017. The document was previously classified as “secret” and “not available to foreign citizens.” The document was officially declassified last week, 30 years earlier than would normally be the case, and will be officially released on Wednesday, the report said. In response, Rory Medcalf, dean of the National Security Institute at the Australian National University, said, “This is a very important document. It’s unusual to release it decades ahead of schedule.” He said, “I think it’s a signal about what kind of continuity the permanent U.S. government, or you could say, officials would like to see in the U.S. relationship with the Indo-Pacific region, including in managing Chinese power.” Washington sources familiar with the strategy’s development said Australia had significant influence on the document, as did Japan.
One source said the White House is closely watching what Australia does in the region and “incorporating lessons learned from former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his ministers directly into the strategy.” “A compelling conclusion we can draw from this strategic framework is that it is a coalition-driven strategy,” Medcalfe said. In some ways, he argued, “the strategy is a vision for U.S. followers rather than a vision for U.S. leadership.” The first major power leader to propose an Indo-Pacific strategy is believed to be former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The highly unusual news, now in the final days of the Trump presidency, reveals that those involved in running U.S. policy want to make sure the strategic architecture is clear and on the public record, the paper said. And the move is in part an attempt to rebut the notion that Trump’s term is a strategy-free zone. It is also meant to reassure U.S. coalition partners, including Australia, that “we are not fading out but redoubling our efforts in the Indo-Pacific region,” said a source closely involved in the policy.
The paper, more than 10 pages long and partially redacted, lays out the U.S. strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific region, the paper said. “This strategic framework is very straightforward with China, not very confrontational but very firm,” Medcalfe said in his analysis. According to him, “It holds no illusions about the nature of Chinese power or the assertive way in which China uses its power.” The strategy commits to “develop and implement a defense strategy capable of, but not limited to, the following. (1) denying China sustained air and sea control within the ‘first island chain’ in the event of conflict; (2) defending the countries of the first island chain, including Taiwan; and (3) dominating all areas outside the first island chain.” Medcalf said, “This is very clear code for the United States to maintain a position with Taiwan, with partners and allies in the South China Sea, with Japan, with South Korea, to really preserve the integrity of those relationships and protect them from Chinese assertiveness and Chinese aggression.” Sources said the language in the document on Taiwan should be understood as a commitment by the United States to the ability to deter and, if necessary, push back against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, rather than an intent to do so.
The paper talks about “aligning our Indo-Pacific strategy with that of Australia, India and Japan,” deepening trilateral cooperation with Japan and Australia, and building a quadrilateral security relationship with India, all initiatives since that time, the paper said, according to the report. In addition, the U.S. goal on India was to “accelerate India’s rise and ability to become a net provider of security” by building “a stronger foundation of defense cooperation and interoperability; expanding our defense trade and defense technology transfer capabilities” and “providing support to India through diplomatic, military and intelligence channels to help resolve continental challenges such as border disputes with China.”
Separately on North Korea, the paper said the goal is to “convince the Kim regime that the only way to survive is to give up its nuclear forces.” According to Medcalf, “This strategy sets the bar very, very high for U.S. success in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of disarming North Korea, deterring China, investing in the region, unlocking U.S. private investment, and empowering democratic states.” He noted, “Clearly, by some measures, the United States has failed.” He said, “I think it’s important to note that this strategy unrealistically calls for U.S. primacy in the Indo-Pacific region, when I think the reality is that the U.S. is only as strong as it needs to be to support its allies.”
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