Although the world has entered the year 2021, it does not mean that the old things have passed, neither is it the beginning of the new year, nor is it the renewal of all things! The world economy has become chaotic everywhere because of the epidemic, which is saddening.
The government has thrown a total of 110 trillion dollars to save the world and is heavily in debt.
The epidemic has not been under control for a long time, and the global government invested about 110 trillion yuan to save the economy last year. Counting the United States twice issued cash bailout and expansion of unemployment benefits, it is estimated that last year with 30 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy, the scale of the world’s first; Japan followed closely behind, the scale of economic stimulus up to 300 trillion yen (about 22 trillion Hong Kong dollars).
According to foreign media statistics, since around March last year, countries mainly in developed countries to start large-scale economic countermeasures, to the total of about 63 trillion yuan in early April. After that, the second and third waves of the epidemic hit various regions, reaching about 97 trillion yuan by mid-September last year and further expanding by the end of December.
In Japan, in addition to the epidemic prevention measures in the medical field, Go To Travel, a travel support program to support consumption, and disaster prevention and mitigation financing programs were launched, and together with the previous response measures and the additional budget finalized in December last year, the total amount reached 22 trillion yen, or more than 50% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
In Europe, Germany spent at least 11 trillion yuan to save the economy, Italy about 5.5 trillion yuan, and the United Kingdom and France also added budget amounts in response to the emergence of the third wave of the epidemic.
China’s bailout amount is relatively small, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that as of mid-September last year, China put about 7 trillion yuan or so.
The most worrying thing is that countries are in a state where they can’t stop using financial and working capital support measures, and how to eliminate debt problems in the future will become a heavy problem.
The epidemic and the chaos are attacking Thailand and it is expected to be worse than 2020].
The epidemic attack is already frustrating, but if combined with social unrest, it will be even worse. While many places around the world believe that the economy is expected to rebound this year, Thailand’s National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) recently predicted that Thailand’s economic situation will further deteriorate this year due to the rising impact of the epidemic.
According to the NIDA survey, about 52.2% of Thai people predict that the local economy will be worse this year than last year, only 14.6% of respondents predict that there will be an improvement. In addition, 48.1% of respondents believe that the impact of the epidemic is more deadly than last year.
The Bank of Thailand also said last month that the country’s economy contracted by 6.6 percent last year and lowered its growth estimate for this year to 3.2 percent from the original 3.6 percent.
The NIDA survey also showed that Thailand faces more obstacles to recover from the anti-government protests. Nearly 77 percent of respondents believe that the political situation in Thailand will continue to be chaotic or deteriorate this year, and 43 percent predict that there will be further demonstrations this year.
As the Thai capital Bangkok, Longchai Chu and Rayong are hotspots of the epidemic, the local government is considering implementing stricter epidemic prevention measures in 28 provinces, including Bangkok, and restricting business activities to curb the epidemic.
Cambodia’s unemployment is soaring and people are catching rats to survive
Foreign media reported that Cambodia’s economy has been hit by the epidemic, with fewer jobs in the cities and unemployed people having to return to the countryside to farm, but because of the low price of rice, they can’t make any money and have to “catch rats” to sell to Vietnam.
The report cited data from the Asian Development Bank that Cambodia’s working-age population is about 9 million, and is expected to reduce 500,000 jobs in 2020, forcing many people working in the cities to return to the countryside, where the price of rice is so low that between January and April last year, farmers’ income fell by 1/3.
As unemployment rises and farming fails to make money, many Cambodians are turning to rat traps as a means of livelihood, and are even taking rat catching as a full-time job. It is reported that there are two purposes for catching rats: one is to prevent rats from destroying crops; the other is that neighboring Vietnam uses rice straw to raise rats, which is said to be delicious, so the rats caught are sold to Vietnam.
Some farmers interviewed said that since last April, the number of rat traps in nearby villages has increased very much, not as profitable as before. Previously, each kilogram caught can get 6,000 riel (about HK$11.5), and the trend of falling prices is becoming more and more obvious throughout the supply chain, with less than half of the income.
Rat prices have fallen, in addition to an increase in supply, demand has also decreased, the Vietnamese are worried about eating rats infected with the new crown pneumonia, plus since March last year, the official has closed the border, so that the rat sales pipeline has become difficult, if the result of “smuggling” arrested, more to face the risk of fines and imprisonment.
[Container shortage shipping supply chain under pressure]
Perhaps many people are still unaware that the epidemic has caused a global shortage of containers, forming a perfect storm for the shipping industry! From auto parts to cosmetics, all supply chains are facing unprecedented challenges.
According to the Service Reliability Index compiled by Sea-Intelligence, based in Copenhagen, Denmark, only 50.1% of container ships arrived on time last November, down from 80% in the same period in 2019 and the lowest since 2011. From Asia to North America, on-time arrival rates even dropped to below 30%, less than half the long-term global average.
Costco Wholesale, which has global operations across four continents, believes that container shortages and late deliveries will continue for several more months, and are expected to ease around March this year. The British logistics industry is also concerned about the freight rate will raise consumer prices, or make many small businesses can not afford to damage the British economy.
Considered the “trade thermometer” of the world’s largest container shipping company Denmark Maersk Group (Maersk) more warned that this is the perfect storm of global container transport. The company’s analysis pointed out that the current United States and Europe to increase demand for replenishment, while curbing the global measures to curb the pandemic but the lack of vessels, containers and container trucks transport capacity to bring serious pressure on the entire supply chain, these challenges for the past 75 years since the most intense stress test.
In fact, freight rates on the North Asia to the United Kingdom route more than tripled last year, with the largest increases occurring in the past few weeks. North Asia to the North American East Coast and West Coast freight rates rose 114% and 189%, respectively, not including insurance premiums.
Another analysis pointed out that, due to serious congestion in the United States and European ports, the main Asian routes in January this year, container freight rates may also rise again, is expected to ease the second half of the year.
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