In America 2020: The Burning Building Divided in Two, I’ve already analyzed the three black swans that flew in America during the election year.
Hoover Institution Report: biden will impoverish Americans
The Republican base is mostly working class and farmers, who like relatively reasonable tax policies, better paying jobs, and a stable social environment; in the Democratic base, nearly half of the voters are socially marginalized, who like socialist economic policies such as high welfare, basic living expenses without working, and universal access to social services without paying fees. Health Care. But as I analyzed in “The Will of U.S. Voters as Presented by Social and External Polls,” among various polls, among topics such as the economy, public safety, and immigration, in addition to presidential approval ratings, the preferences of respondents as presented by U.S. authority polls are more indicative of which candidate is more popular with American voters – because The presidential candidates of both parties have made clear declarations about the future direction of their administration, and President Trump has an additional first-term administration track record.
According to an Oct. 9 Gallup poll, voters’ concerns are the economy (89 percent), national security (83 percent), education (82 percent) and health care (80 percent), in that order. The poll showed that 56 percent believe their lives are better than they were four years ago.
On October 18, the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal published an editorial entitled “The Cost of Bidenomics,” which pointed out that Joe Biden shrewdly focused his campaign on the new coronavirus epidemic and President Trump, which helped him avoid talking about his own policies. . Biden’s economic policies would have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy, jobs and household income, according to a new study released Sunday by the Hoover Institution.
The authors are economists Timothy Fitzgerald, Kevin Hassett, Cody Kallen and Casey Mulligan.
The 50-page Hoover study is valuable because it looks at policy incentives and supply-side effects, not just macroeconomic demand-side spending. The data show that the U.S. economy is recovering from the shutdown of the new coronavirus epidemic faster than most economists predicted.
The Hoover study is significant because it examines Democratic policies on health insurance, taxes, energy and regulation. The report notes that Biden denies he supports a Green New Deal, but his plans to promote electric cars and phase out fossil fuels go far beyond anything Obama has proposed. The report estimates that Biden’s proposed policies, if fully implemented, would reduce full-time equivalent employment per capita by about 3 percent, the capital stock per capita by about 15 percent, and real GDP per capita by more than 8 percent. Compared to Congressional Budget Office estimates of these variables in 2030, this would mean 4.9 million fewer U.S. workers, $2.6 trillion less GDP, and $6,500 less median household income.
A specific example is Pennsylvania. This issue of hydraulic fracturing could cost Biden Pennsylvania.CNN, which has always been flagrantly supportive of Biden, published a report on October 27 by the station’s reporter Vanessa Yurkevich that it went to Elysburg, Pennsylvania, to talk to voters, especially business owners, who said they would not be able to survive without fracking. It is believed that President Trump has a clearer vision of keeping fracking in place, while Biden has been erratic in the past and throughout the campaign. Most voters have stated that they will support President Trump this time around for their livelihood and future. This reporter spoke about only one county, and the mayor of Carbondale, near Biden’s birthplace, has already publicly stated his support for Trump.
Tax policy influences some to change their stance
On October 24, the Rasmussen survey released a poll on taxes and voting: 66% of likely voters, including 57% of Democrats, believe that tax cuts are important for next month’s vote. Fifty-three percent of those likely voters, including 31 percent of Democrats, believe the taxes they pay could go up if Trump is not re-elected. Black rapper Fifty Cents, who has previously said publicly that Biden had his fortune reduced by 60 percent, is ready to support Trump. He withdrew his support due to internal pressure from his white girlfriend and blacks, but this is a perfect example: the Democrats’ green agenda, climate issues, welfare, and polling campaigns appeal to their socialist and far-left base, but taxpayers care more about taxes.
Thomas Del Beccaro, a columnist for Fox Business and Fox, wrote an article on July 30 of this year, pointing out that election prognosticators would do well to remember this, that one issue in recent U.S. history that has had a major impact is tax policy, and that those who propose tax increases will lose the election. He cites Ronald Reagan, who campaigned on a substantial tax cut and defeated his rival, Jimmy Carter, who opposed it, in his first campaign; he still ran for re-election on a promise to cut taxes and defeated Walter Mondale, who advocated higher taxes. George Herbert Walker Bush also ran on a promise of “no new taxes” over his rival, Michael Dukakis, who raised taxes when he was governor of Massachusetts. (Dukakis).
If basic voters of both parties have strong values to choose from, the 30-plus percent of centrists who register as independent voters have stronger economic considerations. Back after the first round of debates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, the anti-Trump-leaning New York Times published an article by columnist Bret Stephens, “A Tragic Beginning for Democrats,” which pointedly argued that the claims of the Democratic contenders suggest a party that is indifferent to the interests of its voters but interested in helping everyone but the American electorate.
Do Democrats really get the suburbs?
Whenever you run in the U.S., it’s pretty much this way: cities are Democratic, rural areas are Republican, and the suburbs in between are the key battlegrounds.The 2016 election exit polls provided results that proved this: they found that rural voters were mostly Republican and voted for Trump by 27 points in 2016, while city dwellers gave Clinton a 26-point advantage. Suburban voters only voted for Trump by 4 points. This year, the New York Times, CNN, and Democratic propaganda have largely drawn the suburbs blue and have repeatedly stated that suburban women hate Trump and are definitely Biden supporters.
Regarding women supporting the Democrats, it actually appeared in 2016, when it was thought that Hillary could get over 70% of the female vote. But the exit polls proved the prediction wrong.In 2016, Trump got 42% female support and Hillary got 54%. And working-class white women, along with their husbands, fathers and sons, voted for Trump. If 50 percent of them, just half, had voted for Hillary, she would have been the first female president of the United States.
So are the suburban battles a landslide for the Democrats? It shouldn’t be. Biden’s reimagined approach to suburban economic management poses a great threat to middle-class American suburban life.John Carney posted an article at Breitbart on October 27, pointing out that Biden’s suburban plan was introduced to shift the problems of the big city to the American suburbs, overcrowded schools, cheap apartment complexes, crime- -This plan is actually part of the Blue Wave, which the Democrats have been doing in the past with the obvious political intent that by building a few or a dozen low-income housing buildings with government subsidies in a modestly populated neighborhood and forcing hundreds of welfare recipients into them, the neighborhood would change colors and become a pro-Democrat blue neighborhood.
But this year’s BLM movement took place in big cities under Democratic rule, San Francisco, New York, Seattle, and Chicago, where a Rassmussen Reports poll showed that “riot zone” voters (people living in and around areas affected by recent looting and destruction) Two-thirds approve of the way President Trump has handled the street riots. The Washington Examiner, citing an evaluation in Britain’s Daily Telegraph, said, “The survey shows Trump winning the ‘law and order vote’ as the country sees violence in protests spreading from major cities to smaller of communities, such as Lancaster, Pennsylvania.”
The survey actually validates the findings of a study published in May by Omar Wasow, an assistant professor of political science at Princeton University. The paper, which analyzed how violent black demonstrations in the 1960s affected elites and how public opinion moved in elections, based on relevant data from the time, concluded that violent demonstrations could cause white voters to shift to the Republican Party by percentages ranging from 1.6 percent to 7.9 percent. Watson warns that the violent demonstrations of the 1960s ended decades of Democratic domination from federal to local, with the Republican Party setting the agenda from federal to state to local for the next 52 years. For the current Democratic Party, there is a need to worry that the spread of violence will cause a repeat of that year’s history.
With these factors in mind, it is somewhat wishful thinking to envision the suburbs remaining the Democratic Party’s vote bank.
A few signals that can’t be ignored
On October 29th, just five days before the election, the U.S. Commerce Department released its latest economic data, and the economy grew at a record 33.1% annual average rate in the third quarter, which, while still below the level of late 2019, suggests that the U.S. has recovered a good portion of the losses caused by the epidemic.
While the Democrats see Early Voting as beneficial to their party, the results show that the political landscape is undergoing a Great Reset and the general election results may be difficult to achieve as the Democrats would like. As a result, protesters on the far left of the Democratic Party, plotted an election day coup. According to a video released to the public, federal employees and agents have revealed that they plan to shut down and occupy Washington, D.C., from November 4 until the inauguration to force Trump out of the White House. Minnesota’s leftists fear that Trump may win the state’s election, planning the post-election “mass mobilization”, ready to occupy the local police station. 29 October, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Polosi in its official website in the form of questions and answers said the following paragraph: “Whatever the final count. But Biden will be elected in an election that takes place on Tuesday (Nov. 3).On Jan. 20, he will be inaugurated as president of the United States. So while we don’t want to be overconfident or take on any responsibility, we have to be prepared for how to take a different path.” –why would these far left make such threats of a violent seizure of power if they were certain of the outcome of the election?
CNN, which has always been anti-Chuan for its own sake, published an op-ed on Oct. 31 saying that President Trump deserves a second term for simple and clear reasons: he has boosted the U.S. economy and improved the lives of Americans; he has gotten us out of costly new wars; and he has gotten peace agreements signed in the Middle East. Trump also stands firm against the strongest impulses of the American left to try to restore the public order that has been disrupted by violent elements of the far left.
The Wall Street Journal, which broke its silence in the midst of Biden’s computer-gate, published a commentary on the same day on Trump’s Already Won, an article that took stock of Trump’s foreign and domestic performance and pointed out that it is still performance that determines the presidential election rather than seeing America as the problem, as Obama does. His next term in office will bring the United States into sustained prosperity, peace, and economic growth, from which the people will benefit.
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