[Market Review].
Data showed that the U.S. ADP employment recorded a decrease of 123,000 in December, the first time since April 2020 to record a negative value, which also indicates that the U.S. is in dire need of economic stimulus. The comprehensive one-day market, the dollar index fell slightly.
Gold prices plunged $50 at one point. Next, let’s focus on gold. Gold prices plunged $50 at one point during the day, setting a new low for the week. The stock market and U.S. bond yields climbed, reducing the attractiveness of the non-interest-bearing asset gold.
Silver shook to the downside. Like gold, silver also saw a big drop during the day, hitting a low of $26.58 per ounce before recovering slightly to reach an intra-day loss of 0.77%.
The euro returned above the 1.23 handle. In non-U.S. currencies, the euro oscillated broadly against the dollar during the day, influenced by the dollar. The pair first approached a high of 1.2350, then fell to near 1.2260 before rebounding and returning above the 1.23 handle.
The British pound fell slightly. Similar to the euro, the pound was more volatile during the day. Overall, the pair fell slightly during the day. The resurgent epidemic and the ensuing economic constraints continue to weigh on the pound.
Bitcoin surged through the $37,000 mark. Bitcoin. Bitcoin appears to have become a big hit investment, continuing to surge during the day and has now surpassed the $37,000 mark.
U.S. oil is shaking up. Finally, take a look at the oil market. Data showed that U.S. API crude oil inventories recorded a decrease of 1.663 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 1. The decrease in US crude oil inventories, as well as Saudi Arabia’s unexpected commitment to cut production, supported oil prices.
▼Bond Market
Overnight, the yield on China’s 10-year Treasury note fell 0.03 percent, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 9.26 percent and the yield on the U.S. 3-month Treasury note fell 2.11 percent.
▼On the stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.57%, the Nasdaq down 0.61% and the Dow up 1.44%; by this morning, Chinese stocks opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, the Growth Enterprise Market Index down 0.28% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index up 0.09%.
[Risk Warning
British pound: the Bank of England negative interest rate is expected to heat up the pound upside space is limited
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believes that the new British embargo will deepen the economic downturn in the winter. The British economy is expected to contract sharply in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. The recession will increase the pressure on the Bank of England, pushing up the possibility of the Bank of England to introduce negative interest rates, which will limit the upside of the pound.
Euro: slow launch of vaccines Euro short term fear of retracement
TD Securities warned that the euro may reach its peak against the dollar and that a pullback may occur in the short term. In fact, in addition to TD Securities, strategists from other institutions also believe that the euro may pull back. This is mainly because of the troubles brought by the epidemic to the eurozone economy, as well as the slow pace of vaccine rollout.
Silver: Multiple factors support Silver is expected to continue to strengthen
The market generally expects global monetary easing and fiscal deflation to favor global commodity gains, and the prospect of a global economic recovery also favors industrial demand for silver. Silver prices are expected to perform more strongly than gold in 2021 and are expected to rise towards the 50 mark to set a new record high.
[Key Forecast].
18:00 Eurozone December CPI expected to remain weak
This afternoon, the eurozone will release CPI data. Since August last year, the annual rate of CPI in the eurozone has been recorded negative, to November, remained at -0.3%. Institutional commentary said that dragged down by the sharp decline in energy costs, CPI in the eurozone fell more than expected in November. The ECB hopes to keep the annual CPI rate below, but close to, 2% in the medium term. However, in the past eight years, despite the ECB’s massive bond purchases in the secondary market in order to inject more money into the market and boost demand, however, failed to achieve this goal.
Currently, the market expects the preliminary value of the euro zone CPI annual rate of -0.2% in December, if the published value is greater than expected, or positive for the euro; conversely, will be negative for the euro.
Also published is the CPI monthly rate, the current market expectations are not optimistic, which may drag down the euro.
21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims remain high
Next, to see the United States will be released initial jobless claims. In recent weeks, the United States announced the number of initial claims to maintain near 800,000, last week’s release of data for 787,000. Some agencies have commented that the blockade measures resulting from the surge in confirmed cases of new crowns have significantly limited consumer spending and affected employment. The development of the epidemic remains a major factor affecting the labor market recovery until fiscal stimulus measures are actually implemented to every household.
Currently, the market expects that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week to January 2 will be 800,000. If the published value is much higher than expected, the dollar index may be under pressure; conversely, if the published value is less than expected, the dollar index may be stronger.
Need to be alert, the current U.S. new crown confirmations continue to surge, which may push up the number of initial jobless claims, the risk of pressure on the dollar index is greater.
Recent Comments