North Korea held a major days-long political conference in the capital Pyongyang, where leader Kim Jong Un acknowledged recent economic failures.
Addressing the thousands of delegates in attendance, Kim Jong Un admitted that North Korea has failed to meet the goals set in its just-concluded five-year economic plan.
“The goals we set fell far short of the mark in almost all fields,” Kim Jong Un said in his opening address to the ruling Workers’ Party’s eighth national congress, according to official North Korean media.
Kim said the past five years have been “unprecedented” and “the worst five years” for North Korea. In response, he said the country should “strengthen our own strength and ability to stand on our own feet.”
Photos released by North Korea’s official media KCNA showed thousands of attendees sitting close together in a hall with no visible social distancing measures and no one wearing a mask.
This is the second party congress held by Kim Jong Un since he took power in December 2011. The meeting, which is expected to set North Korea’s policy goals for the next five years, coincides with one of the most challenging periods of Kim Jong Un’s rule.
Economic Issues
North Korea is under international sanctions over its nuclear program, which has caused serious setbacks to the country’s economic development. The recent series of floods and strict anti-new coronavirus measures have added to the economy’s woes.
Overall, North Korea’s economy is likely to contract by at least 8.5% in 2020, according to Fitch Solutions’ assessment.
One big reason: Last January, shortly after news of the coronavirus broke, North Korea closed its border with China, the country’s largest trading partner and economic lifeline. Trade between the two countries fell by 80 percent as a result, according to the Korea International Trade Association.
Supply shortage
Seoul-based online media outlet NK News, which focuses on North Korea, reported Tuesday (Jan. 5) that Pyongyang is experiencing “severe and persistent food shortages,” especially in stores frequented by the country’s elite.
According to NK News, key items such as sugar, cooking oil and toothpaste have “almost completely disappeared” from the shelves of some supermarkets in Pyongyang. Local fresh fruits and vegetables are selling for more than five times their previous prices, the report added.
North Korea has implemented strict measures against coronavirus. However, North Korea insists that no one in the country has tested positive for coronavirus. This claim has been widely disputed by global health experts as well as others.
North Korea is particularly vulnerable to disease outbreaks. It is one of the world’s poorest countries, and its medical infrastructure is severely underdeveloped and under-resourced.
According to the Wall Street Journal, North Korea has submitted an application to receive the Global Alliance for Vaccine Immunization (GAVI) vaccination against the new coronavirus. GAVI is an international partnership of governments, pharmaceutical companies, charities and civil society organizations that arranges global vaccination campaigns in lower-income countries.
North Korea’s leader called the response to the new coronavirus pandemic a matter of urgency and “national survival. Many analysts say that given the current situation, it is unclear what North Korea can do to stimulate its economy, at least until the threat of the virus recedes and border restrictions are eased.
“Kim Jong Un is not going to stand up and commit to denuclearization, marketization and improving human rights,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Leif said, “Optimists would like to see Kim Jong Un willing to engage in diplomatic cooperation with the incoming Biden administration, mention opportunities for economic development including with South Korea, and be open to humanitarian cooperation during an outbreak.”
He added that “pessimists expect the Kim regime to emphasize military strength, self-reliant socialism and a sustained crackdown on subversive elements.”
Admitting failure?
This should not be the first time Kim has admitted policy failures, especially on the economic front.
Last August, the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea admitted that plans to improve the economy had “seriously lagged” due to the “severe domestic and foreign situation.
In recent years, Kim Jong-un has tried to present a more humble “pro-people” image than his father, former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
Lim Eul-chul of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul doubted that Kim Jong-un was sincere in his admission of economic policy failure on Tuesday. Still, he argued that Kim’s remarks were unusual in the context of North Korea, where the top leader is expected to be held in high esteem.
“It’s not exactly correct to say that he admitted failure,” Lim said. “What he admitted was that the results of the implementation of economic policy after the 7th Party Congress were not good enough. That’s still not very common, considering North Korea’s usual behavior.”
Foreign Policy Direction
The North Korean party congress, which comes two weeks before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, is also being watched for signs of adjustments in North Korea’s foreign policy.
North Korea has resisted nuclear talks in recent years and is frustrated with the U.S. refusal to ease sanctions. President Donald Trump has met with Kim three times during his presidency, but those meetings have not led to North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapons program.
Biden has said he would not rule out the possibility of face-to-face talks with Kim. But he also said it would only be part of broader working-level talks.
Robert Abrams, the top U.S. general in South Korea, said Tuesday that Pyongyang does not appear prepared to launch a major provocation around the time the Biden administration takes office.
The commander of U.S. forces in South Korea said in an online forum, “We haven’t seen any indication that there will be a major provocation – but that’s the case today. That could change next week.”
The next step
North Korea often conducts major tests, including ballistic missile or nuclear weapons tests, around the time of a U.S. presidential power transition to demonstrate its military capabilities and possibly gain leverage in future negotiations with Washington.
Kim Jong Un said a year ago that he no longer felt bound by a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests, sparking fears of renewed major tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Last October, North Korea used a military parade to show the international community for the first time a large new intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared to be designed to suppress U.S. missile defense systems. Some suspect Pyongyang may test-fire missiles or other weapons systems in the coming months.
Many South Koreans are also watching the party congress to see if it will make any recommendations for future inter-Korean cooperation.
North Korea unilaterally ratcheted up tensions with South Korea last year, much to the dismay of many in Seoul. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, whose five-year presidential term ends in May 2022, has placed a high priority on improving inter-Korean relations.
In his opening speech Tuesday, Kim made no mention of the United States, South Korea or the nuclear issue. The eighth congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea is expected to last many days.
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