Eurasia Group, the world’s largest political risk consulting firm, released its list of the world’s 10 biggest risks for 2021 on Thursday, ranking the 46th U.S. president at the top of the list and the more tense U.S.-China relationship in fourth place.
At the beginning of each year, the Eurasia Group, led by Ian Bremmer, an international political scientist, forecasts events that could have a huge impact on the politics and economy of the year. For the second year in a row, the firm ranked domestic politics as the biggest risk.
In a forecast published in 2020, the company ranked “who will rule the US” at the top of its list, pointing to the risk of uncertainty in November’s US election.
On January 4, 2021, the company released the World’s top 10 Risks 2021. The first is the “46th”, referring to the controversy surrounding The Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
The firm says half of the U.S. population believes the election result is illegitimate, and that a serious split will extend to things like the health insurance system. It also analyzed biden’s domestic campaign promises and the impact of foreign policy, and mentioned the possibility of Trump‘s return as president.
Eurasia Group released its “top 10 Risks of 2021” on Thursday. The first is the “46th”.
No. 2 on the list of risks is Novel Coronavirus, which describes a “K-shaped” recovery polarized by the epidemic, defined as uneven economic growth with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. “It will lead to anger and political instability against the incumbent,” he said, noting that it would lead to political instability.
With regard to vaccine distribution, the gap is projected to widen between and within countries. The widespread impact of the epidemic will not disappear after the vaccine is widely available. Unbalanced growth, vaccination coverage and stimulus packages will push up debt levels, leading to rising unemployment and discontent with leaders.
In fourth place, the firm predicted further tensions between the two countries.
The company said U.S. efforts to recruit Allies, vaccine diplomacy and competition for climate technology would interact with longstanding tensions between the United States and China, further complicating the relationship. Differences over bilateral trade, science and technology, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea will continue to play out, further increasing the chances of miscalculation during the crisis.
At the same time, the Trump administration’s hard-line approach to the Chinese Communist Party in the past has contributed to Beijing’s declining image around the world.
Building a united front against the Communist Party of China (CPC) will not happen overnight, Eurasia Group president Bremmer said at a press conference on Thursday. Beijing will punish countries that work with Washington, such as the Chinese Communist Party for its actions against Australia last year. Elsewhere, Beijing has offered economic olive branches to other countries.
Bremmer predicts that this will lead to further diplomatic rivalry between the two countries.
Pompeo again criticized the COMMUNIST Party of China and summed up three points to set the tone for “decoupling” between the US and China. (West Coast Watch)
The Economist recently published an article concluding that global capital markets face at least the following 10 risky events in 2021:
First, the vaccine fight. As the first vaccines become available in large quantities, the world’s attention will focus on issues ranging from difficult development to vaccine distribution. Will greatly affect global capital market sentiment.
A mixed economic recovery. The economy will certainly recover from the turmoil, but the recovery will not be balanced.
The extent to which the world order will be restored remains highly uncertain.
The competition between China and the United States will not stop, but will only become more intense.
- Companies in the hot seat are expected to come under more pressure.
Six, after the technology carnival, the trend to be clear. In 2020, technologies such as online shopping, teleconferencing, telecommuting and distance learning have changed work patterns and lifestyles. Whether it will be sustained or restored by 2021 will gradually become clear.
“A less free world.” Tourism is expected to continue to shrink and change shape, with domestic tourism predominating. Airlines and hotel chains are still struggling.
- Opportunities for climate change. Governments are interested in investing in green recovery programs that create jobs and conserve energy and reduce emissions.
The postponed gala may not always take place in 2021. The Olympics, the Dubai World Expo, and many other events will not be held in 2021.
X. Other risks.
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