Analysis of Carrie Lam’s year-end poll: less than 30 and more than 40% gave her 0 marks

According to a year-end poll conducted by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme, most Hong Kong people consider both the top government leaders and the government’s ability to govern extremely disappointing. When asked about the likelihood of finding a way out of the predicament next year, respondents’ attitude was also mostly negative.

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The last opinion poll conducted by HKUPOP in 2020 shows that CE Carrie Lam’s latest rating is only 29.7, with a net popularity of negative 51 percentage points, 44% of the respondents gave her 0 marks. As for the performance of the SAR Government, only 17% were satisfied, 60% were dissatisfied, giving a net value of negative 43 percentage points. 29% trusted the SAR Government, 56% did not, giving a net trust value of negative 27 percentage points.

Looking ahead to next year, the poll found that about 34% said there would be improvement, but more than 39% said it would worsen, with a net value of negative 6 percentage points.

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The poll also shows that Hong Kong people’s satisfaction with the political situation, livelihood situation and economic situation in 2020 are all negative net values, in order to negative 50, negative 51, negative 59 percentage points. In this survey, 72% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the year’s development, with a net satisfaction rate of negative 62 percentage points, up from a low of negative 75 percentage points last year.

Moreover, in this year-end survey, over 59% of the respondents said they were unhappy in the past year, with a net happiness value (happiness minus unhappiness) of negative 45 percentage points, a record low since the survey was conducted in 1992; 31% thought their personal development would be better in the coming year, 25% thought it would be worse, with a net value of 6 percentage points, an improvement from last year’s negative 7 percentage points.

The year-end survey also asked people about their New Year wishes for the coming year. Society-related wishes accounted for 49%, while those related to individuals accounted for 22%, and those related to world peace or fraternity accounted for 7%.

POP’s Deputy CEO Kenneth Chung summed up the government’s performance in 2020, saying that the government has been totally unsuccessful in rebuilding people’s trust in the past year. The epidemic itself is the best time to rebuild trust, because public panic is often a time for the government to fight for performance, and people will temporarily regard political differences as secondary, which is basic common sense in political science, yet the government keeps missing the opportunity. For example, the border control hesitation and the alleged improper issuance of citations by the police during the implementation of the gathering restriction have made some people feel that the government is only trying to suppress the march through the gathering restriction.

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Chung Kin-wah believes that the epidemic has not brought any benefit to the government’s popularity, even though Lin Cheng’s popularity once rose above 30 marks, but they are all low points, and this time has fallen through 30 marks again. He mentioned that every survey from last year to now is asking different people, but there are always 40 to 60% people giving Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor 0 marks, proving that this situation is not by chance, but based on something, if the government still feels that these polling data are not credible, it is their freedom.

Chung Kin-wah said that he has never seen such a big confidence crisis among Hong Kong people in the past 40 years. He pointed out that in the 1980s, Hong Kong was able to bounce back in the face of future problems and post-transition period, and people’s reaction then was not as panic-stricken as today.