China’s planned mega-dam on a major river that flows through India and Bangladesh is likely to be the latest in a string of triggers with New Delhi. China’s super-dam plan also raises concerns in Bangladesh, which relies heavily on the river for its fresh water supply.
China National Electric Power Construction Corporation announced the plan in November for the mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, or Brahmaputra, as it is known in India, which has yet to begin construction.
Several concerns have been raised by Indian analysts who fear the dam could cause flash floods or create water shortages. Security experts say that building the dam near the highly militarized border between India and China would give China a strategic advantage if their differences over the disputed Himalayan border intensify.
The dam is planned to be built in Tibetan territory near a bend in the river near Arunachal Pradesh in northeastern India, which Beijing identifies as the southern Tibetan region. According to Chinese official media, the dam will have a generating capacity of up to 60 gigawatts, almost three times that of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China, the world’s largest.
“For India, the primary concern is China’s unilateral action to try to control the flow of water across the river,” said Jagannath Panda, a researcher in East Asian affairs at the Manohar Bharika Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Noting that the plan was announced at a time when the two countries are nearing a military standoff over the disputed border that has caused a deterioration in their relations, he said, “The Chinese are trying to link the water issue to the broader border dispute in order to put pressure on India.”
The power generated by the dam will help Beijing meet its clean energy goals and enhance water security, said Yan Zhiyong, chairman of China Power Construction Group Corp. He called the project “a historic opportunity.”
But military experts in New Delhi stressed that they believe a dam built near a disputed border would have serious and far-reaching implications for India’s military security.
“When China finishes building a project of this magnitude, it will deploy air defense weapon systems, develop roads and build new towns,” said Brig. Gen. Arun Sahgal of the Delhi Policy Group, a New Delhi think tank.
He added, “And if such a project is built near the disputed border, it will turn into a huge red line and India will be constrained in any military situation.”
The Chinese embassy in New Delhi, for its part, is trying to allay concerns about the dam plan, saying the development is still in the “preliminary planning and demonstration” stage.
The Chinese embassy issued a statement last month saying that China “has always taken a responsible approach to the development and use of transboundary rivers.”
The Chinese embassy statement added: “Any development plan must be scientifically planned and proven, taking into full consideration the impact on downstream areas and the interests of upstream and downstream countries.”
Yet the Chinese statement did not reassure New Delhi.
Panda said, “The written statement is unhelpful.” He added that during the tense border military standoff between the two countries in 2017, Beijing did not provide New Delhi with any relevant hydrological information critical to predicting flooding conditions in northeast India.
This, he said, heightened fears that China could use its position as the upper reaches of the river to gain a strategic advantage.
India and China have no formal treaty on sharing water resources, although they have signed an agreement on sharing information about water flows. Beijing has built about a dozen small and medium-sized dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo River.
Indian officials told reporters that New Delhi will also finalize plans to build a dam on the Brahmaputra River, just after the Chinese side announced its latest dam construction plans.
T.S. Mehra, a top official in India’s federal water ministry, told the Press Trust of India, “The plan will offset the impact of the Chinese hydropower plan.”
An article published in July by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, mentioned that India needs to carefully assess the potential for China to “weaponize” its advantages as an “upstream river state” to affect downstream countries.
At the same time, China’s plans to build dams have caused Bangladesh to be highly alarmed. Bangladesh believes that the negative impact of Chinese dams on them is even greater than that of India.
Experts fear that the planned dams will severely disrupt water flows vital to sustaining livelihoods and agriculture in the densely populated country, and they have called on China to consult with downstream countries before dams are built.
Malik Fida Khan, executive director of the Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) in Dhaka, said, “During the dry season in Bangladesh, the spill of the Brahmaputra River is particularly important.”
He says the dam’s potential endangerment goes beyond affecting the amount of water flowing: “When you intercept sediment and nutrients in the water from upstream, it all has a huge impact on the ecosystem downstream.”
This is not the first time that China’s hydropower plans have sparked regional tensions.
China has also faced allegations in Southeast Asia that it has exacerbated water shortages in countries downstream by building a string of dams on the upper Mekong River. Beijing, however, has denied those allegations.
Recent Comments