Recently, many places in China, such as Beijing, Liaoning and Zhejiang, have reported new local disseminated cases or aggregated outbreaks of New Crown Pneumonia. Will there be a large-scale outbreak of the disease in China this winter? Can we still travel in the New Year and Spring Festival?
Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, was recently interviewed by CCTV General to respond to the hot issues of the day.
Can we still travel in the Chinese New Year as many places report local outbreaks? Can the vaccine control the epidemic? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong said this
Can we still travel in the Chinese New Year?
According to Academician Zhong Nanshan, the increased demand for travel in the New Year and Spring Festival is inevitable, and there is no need to ban travel in China. However, it is discouraged to go abroad, and do not go to the domestic areas that have been classified as medium risk.
There are three things to keep in mind when traveling: wear a mask, wash your hands regularly and keep your distance. “If that’s the case, I think we can still get through the New Year and Chinese New Year safely.”
Is a winter epidemic likely to rebound?
Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the “rebound” refers to a massive increase in cases again like the beginning, which is not going to happen. China has formed a very effective, relatively tight control, but there will certainly be repeated epidemics, epidemics appear.
How should we understand the emergence of “environmental transmission” of the new coronavirus?
Zhong Nanshan, an academician, said that China currently has some local cases increase, which may be related to environmental and physical transmission, but this issue needs further research. “If there is an infection, what concentration will come out? How is it transmitted? How do you eliminate it? These are all scientific questions that need to be addressed.”
How to respond specifically? Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that wearing masks, hand washing and keeping distance is an important way to prevent environmental and object transmission. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the detection of foreign objects.
What is the progress of vaccine development in China?
Academician Zhong Nanshan said that China’s vaccine research and development is relatively early in the world. Phase III clinical trials of the domestic vaccine have already yielded results, and several countries have proven that the Chinese vaccine is safe and protective.
It is too early to compare which vaccine is better at home and abroad, because protection is only one of the factors, but it also depends on how cost-effective it is, how side effects are, whether it is easy to transport and store, etc.
Who must be vaccinated? Do you still need to wear a mask after vaccination?
Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that people with more international connections, including those on international shipping, trains, trucks and ships, medical personnel, the elderly and other people with lower resistance, need to be considered for vaccination first.
Do ordinary people need to be vaccinated? Academician Zhong Nanshan said that it is easier to establish the so-called “herd immunity” after vaccination, and most people are vaccinated and produce antibodies, so it is more reassuring.
As to whether you need to wear a mask after vaccination, Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that even if everyone is vaccinated, there are still several problems: first, the vaccine is generally effective only after one month, but not 100% effective; second, the vaccine is only one year old now and can be used urgently, but the best vaccine still needs to be compared. So will come to high incidence areas or dangerous areas, planted vaccine also need to do a good job of wearing a mask and other preventive measures.
Many places report local epidemic cases, can we still travel in the Spring Festival? Can the vaccine control the epidemic? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong has this to say
Will virus mutation lead to increased infectiousness?
Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that the infectiousness of mutated new coronaviruses is definitely increased. However, there is no evidence that mutation will cause the virus to resist the vaccine, or that the virus will be more “virulent”.
Generally speaking, virus mutations will definitely increase, which requires the joint efforts of governments and scientists to reduce the chance of virus spread and virus mutation.
At the recent
2020 Future Science Award Week “Virus and Human health” Forum
Zhang Wenhong and Wu Chen, Dean’s Professor at Peking Union Medical College, served as moderators
Also in conversation with virologists and vaccinologists
Can we still travel in the Chinese New Year as many places are reporting indigenous cases? Can vaccines control the outbreak? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong had this to say
SARS was quickly contained, why did the New Crown pneumonia spread until now?
Why has the New Crown epidemic spread until now? In this regard, Wang Jianwei, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences-Beijing Union Medical College, believes that “the difficulty of preventing and controlling the New Crown epidemic is much greater than that of SARS in 2003.”
Can we still travel in the Spring Festival as many places report local epidemic cases? Can the vaccine control the epidemic? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong had this to say
In terms of virological characteristics, 80% of new coronavirus infections are latent infections, and most of the 20% of overt infections are mild infections, while SARS is basically an overt infection and most of them are severe, so patient identification and management are relatively easy.
In terms of virus transmission, the infectiousness of the new coronavirus is significantly higher than that of the SARS virus, so in 2003, only 7,000 to 8,000 people were infected worldwide within six months of SARS, while the new coronavirus had infected tens of millions of people within six months.
Today’s socio-economic environment is different from that of that year, and the scope of activities of people is much larger than before, which also brings convenient conditions for the spread of the epidemic.
With a vaccine, will the outbreak be effectively controlled?
How many people need to be vaccinated to effectively control the outbreak after the new crown vaccine is available? “Based on the current transmission intensity, transmission route, and breadth of the new crown virus, at least half to two-thirds of the population must be immunized to effectively control the outbreak.” Yang Xiaoming, chairman of Sinopharm China Biotechnology Co. said that the possibility of transmission can be further blocked especially when key people whose jobs face higher risks are immunized with the vaccine.
Can we still travel in the Spring Festival as many places report local epidemic cases? Can the vaccine control the outbreak? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong had this to say
Will the new coronavirus, which keeps mutating, cause the existing vaccine to be ineffective? Wenhong Zhang believes that the probability of serotype drift is relatively low until a vaccine comes out. If there is no selective pressure, the serotype will not change until there is a population immunization, and this change must be followed by a large number of population immunizations in the population before the serotype drifts. And after serotype drift, it may not necessarily lead to ineffective vaccination. “It makes no sense to me that we keep talking about the effect of mutations on the vaccine when the vaccine is not out yet. It’s like you have to get married first and have children, not keep talking about whether that child can go to college or not. It’s much more important to talk about whether you can get married first.”
Does the new crown vaccine need to be given every year, like the flu shot? Yang says it’s about the effectiveness of the vaccine. The ideal vaccine is one shot that lasts a lifetime, such as the measles vaccine, which basically gives lifelong immunity after one vaccination. In July this year, China approved the emergency use of the new inactivated coronavirus vaccine, and more than six months of observation is still relatively stable. “Take the inactivated virus vaccine developed by our company, for example, I personally had it in March this year. The clinical observation of the second phase is 2 shots, only 1 shot, the difference is great; playing 2 shots, antibody serum in a certain standard 100% turn positive. However, if the interval between the 2 shots is different, there is still a difference in antibody. We are doing phase III clinical, in 50,000 to 60,000 people to do, after playing 2 injections of antibodies can be high to what extent, can last until when, this is the problem we are observing, research.”
Zhang Wenhong introduced that some time ago, an epidemic prevention expert in Japan told him that Japan had scheduled the vaccine for next year, but when a public opinion survey was conducted in Japan, it was found that only 15 percent of the population had the will to be vaccinated, 50-60 percent had not decided, and about 30 percent said they definitely would not be vaccinated. A recent U.S. survey of vaccination intentions showed that African-Americans were 32 percent willing to get vaccinated, Caucasians 52 percent willing to get vaccinated and Asians 73 percent willing to get vaccinated. “I personally am optimistic about the prospects of the vaccine when it comes to market. Although the epidemic is getting tougher now, I believe it will be effectively controlled in the next one to two years. In the future, after everyone is generally vaccinated to form an immune barrier, China will then adopt a prevention and control strategy that is more similar to the international one, and we will be able to achieve an optimal state of prevention and control.”
In addition to vaccines, what is the significance of the development of antibody drugs?
There are now at least one or two hundred companies and research institutions working on antibody drugs. Why is it so hot? “It’s actually demand-driven; some small-molecule drugs are not effective, while antibody drugs are characterized by targeting the virus itself, neutralizing it, and blocking its entry into the cell, promising to be potent drugs.” Yan Jinghua, a professor at the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said.
With many places reporting local epidemic cases, can we still travel in the Spring Festival? Can the vaccine control the outbreak? Zhong Nanshan Zhang Wenhong had this to say
What is the clinical effectiveness of antibody drugs for the treatment of neocrown pneumonia? “The results of two published clinical trials show that it will greatly reduce the rate of hospitalization of patients, the rate of conversion from mild to severe disease, and thus potentially reduce mortality.” Yan Jinghua said.
“Antibody drugs are not only used for treatment, but can also play a preventive role in emergency situations.” For example, if a positive patient is found, antibody drugs can be given to close contacts on an emergency basis for early prevention and interruption, Yan Jinghua said. Then, for example, if you are going to a high-risk environment but have not been vaccinated early on, it is also useful to inject antibody drugs at this time.
How long can antibodies provide protection? According to Yan Jinghua, if it is a normal antibody molecule, it has a half-life of 3 weeks and is able to provide protection for more than 1 month. Now there are also companies developing long-acting antibodies that can protect for up to three months to six months.
This article is a synthesis of the news from Shanghai Watch, CCTV news, etc.
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