After nine months of negotiations, the UK and the EU finally finalized the Brexit trade agreement on the eve of Christmas Day, bringing to an end the 1645-day-long breakup drama that has been staged since 2016, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson happily sharing the happy news in this year’s Christmas congratulations video and the EU publicly stating that the UK remains a trustworthy partner and that both sides will still work together towards the future.
From January 2021, except for Ireland, the UK and the EU will not be free to enter and exit people and goods, non-UK citizens need to apply to stay in the UK, British people in EU countries no longer immediately enjoy the right to live and work, goods need to pass customs and border checks, only the import and export of Northern Ireland will still comply with EU regulations, local trucks can transit without inspection, but from other parts of the UK to enter Northern Ireland is subject to inspection, Northern Ireland has become a compromise area between the two sides.
The United Kingdom from the European Union to get back control of money, borders, laws, trade and fishing waters, but the two sides still have many problems to be solved later, for example: customs long queues of trucks, because the review process time increased, the problem of traffic congestion in the short term should not be alleviated; agreement although boasting “zero tariffs, zero quotas” principle, but the proportion of product parts from non-UK and EU countries is too high, may still be subject to tariffs; the two sides stalemate on the fishing industry, the United Kingdom agreed that the EU can fish in British waters, but will reduce the EU fishing quota, and 5.5 years later to re-agreement.
After the UK leaves the EU, it is expected to suffer a loss of about 4% of GDP in 15 years, and may also face pressure from the resurgence of the domestic referendum on Scottish independence, with most Scottish people expecting to return to the EU. The EU may also lose 280,000 jobs after the agreement. The EU’s influence in international politics and military will decay, and may cause up to 12 to 15 billion euros of financial shortfall, the UK and the EU to complete the agreement is not really the end of the picture, the two sides will have to face many challenges in the future.
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