What I’m going to say today is a story of wealth, dreams, investment, adventure, and chicken soup for the soul.
Many of you may have heard the first half of this story, but today I’m going to tell the second half, which is not well known.
1 The Unbeatable Bitcoin Guess
In 2011, a college student asked a question on Zhihu, “With 6,000 dollars on hand, where should I invest? This is a common question, many people have similar confusion when they have some savings on hand, but there was an unusual answer in the answer section, someone suggested that he should invest in bitcoin and look at it after five years.
And as of today, the price of bitcoin is, $19,000.
Putting aside the discussion of the value of bitcoin, we can find that in 2011, when the new technology of bitcoin blockchain was just sprouting before the hype, there were already people on Zhihu who were sensitive to the development of this piece and joined early. Zhihu also started to be known by the public with its professional and in-depth community content. This answer has become a myth of Zhihu, forwarded by various websites, and his rate of return may make various investment posting analysis posting sweat.
This story, I’m sure many people have heard of it. But this is only the first half of the story known to the public. He actually has a second half.
2 years after this answer was written, in 2013, bitcoin ushered in a wave of explosive fire, the price rose from $3 a piece in 11 years to $6000 a piece. So someone dug up this question from 2011, and there were countless people beating their chests and saying they missed the opportunity to get rich. That “the opportunity of the times is gone “
Then, as people were lamenting the missed opportunity, there was another discussion about whether it was too late to get into bitcoin. The end result was, “It’s too late, all the smart people are in. “
But the interesting thing is that in 2017, someone else rehashed that response, and people were surprised to find that bitcoin, which was 6,000 a piece in 2013, had gone up to $23,000. If people in 2013, after pounding their chests, had gotten serious about bitcoin and gotten in in time, they still would have made money.
In 2020, someone else turned this on its head and it turns out. bitcoins that were 23,000 in 2017 have shot up in price to 120,000 in 2020. This means that people in 2017, recognizing the missed opportunities of those who came before them in 2013, didn’t think that they had missed the boat once again as well.
This time, no one on Zhihu pounded their chests again, and no one regretted for missing the opportunity of the times, everyone had a deeper understanding of the times and opportunities – the best time to plant a tree is ten years ago, followed by now.
But, today we are going to talk about more than that.
2 The unthinkable milk tea
The second story, from the milk tea industry. 2013, we discuss the future of which industries will be explosive growth, in addition to the clichéd Internet cloud computing chip VR and other popular tracks, there are many people realize that the country should appear a similar Starbucks tea industry brands, which will also be a popular track.
But at that time, everyone’s thinking was still limited by Starbucks, that the corresponding Chinese brand should be similar to tea drinking + leisure places, that is, the tea club. RuiXing coffee is also an extension of this inherent thinking, I want to do similar to Starbucks such tea + stores. But the end result is not good.
This model seems to be unable to be recognized in the country.
So, does this mean that everyone’s view is wrong? In fact, looking back in 2020, you will find that everyone is actually right, but the results are a little different from everyone else.
Pure tea brands and tea clubs did not appear, but the milk tea beverage industry, indeed, ushered in the explosion. Yuanqi forest, Naixue’s tea, Xi tea, Gu Ming, a little bit, a full outbreak. 90 and 80 after the wealth of the new rich, where the rise of the collision.
3 Unexpected giants
More interesting is the Internet industry, in 2014 and even in 2015, when we discuss the emerging companies worthy of attention and worthy of school recruitment into, the list frequently discussed to these.
And these
Is it unimaginable? Today’s headlines and Poundland don’t appear in this discussion. The top candidates are cell phones and O2O.
Everyone recognizes the importance of the e-commerce industry and the information medium, but because of the overshadowing of Tencent and Ali, everyone thinks the war between these two businesses is over, the online battlefield has been fought, all the space that can be reclaimed has been occupied by the giants, and there is no chance for new players. Only the offline, which has not been covered by the giants, will be the space for new players to grow.
Based on this logic, the online + offline O2O should be the core battlefield. And cell phone manufacturers as the key to the combination of hardware and software, mastering the hardware entrance, will also have a seat, so many people are also optimistic about LeTV.
This logic seems correct, but the fact is that the O2O battlefield including similar offline based sharing bicycle sharing gym and other industries in a comprehensive collapse, West Shaoji Huang Taiji carving master beef brisket and other Internet catering are soon to go on, and we think there is no play information industry and e-commerce industry, today’s headlines and Poundland ran out.
4 Misty
Know, so many smart people, can not guess bitcoin, can not think of milk tea, unexpected giant debut. Even if you have seen with your own eyes the madness of bitcoin, you still can not guess where his limit is. Even if you know that the tea industry in the new era will have the rise of domestic consumer brands, but the way the new players make their debut you often
can not think. You think there is no opportunity in the popular battlefield such as e-commerce information, O2O is the future, but all those who bet on the future have encountered setbacks, but there are new giants killed in the e-commerce information track.
Finance, retail, and Internet technology, across three tracks and across a decade, all seem to be repeating to us one thing: “You can never predict the future”
But, is that really the case? Although we all did not anticipate the rise of headlines and Pindo, but we all recognize the value of the e-commerce information track, although we did not expect the crazy expansion of a little bit of hi tea, but we all guessed the explosion of the tea industry, although you miss the fast train to riches again and again, but we all recognize that the growth of new things is rapid.
Yes, it is true that you can not predict the future, but, guess the present, but it is not a difficult thing. In the three stories, the respondents and countless agreeers of Zhihu have a basic consensus on the status quo, and with the benefit of hindsight, we all guessed eight or nine, but just not enough imagination in the process of deducing the future. What runs behind all three stories, I think, is the same truth: when we’re probing the future for answers, we should spend a lot of time looking at things that are constant, not a lot of time chasing things that are changing. You shouldn’t be thinking about whether bitcoin has reached its limit, you should be thinking about whether blockchain technology has value and whether people will recognize this thing. You don’t have to think about whether the new Chinese tea drink can be the same as Starbucks, you have to see that from ancient times to the present people are willing to pay for a good drink. You should also not go to see how strong Tencent Ali how big the development of how fast, but to see the nature of business, the public is always willing to pay for cheap goods.
5 curiosity
Why do I say these three stories today? I found these stories, from two days ago, the tenth anniversary of Zhihu, they are doing activities. Then, I suddenly thought, I joined Zhihu seven years ago, and at that time, there were already a large number of questions on Zhihu, and countless people were sending out their questions here. About ideals
About the industry about the future. So, after all these years, have you found the answers to the questions you had back then? What were the young people curious about back then? And what were they anxious about? What is the difference with now?
Those answers back then, has withstood the test of time?
Then I went back and found a lot of questions that had traveled back in time, which was particularly interesting. These questions and answers recorded by Zhihu began to take root and grow, observing the world from a different perspective. Ten years ago, Zhihu’s 200 original users created 8,000 questions and 20,000 answers in 40 days. Ten years later
Ten years later, Zhihu has gathered more than 44 million questions and 240 million answers. In addition to discovering and documenting the world, Zhihu has provided more people with quality, trustworthy answers.
In 2014, a netizen asked in Zhihu “What is the state of life of single young people working in the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen? In the past 6 years, nearly 4,000 answers have been accumulated under this question, among which there are memories of feelings and hopes, behind each text are the vivid faces and real emotions of young people today.
Behind each text are the vivid faces and real emotions of young people today.
But all of the answers are similar when viewed from the perspective of a decade – the only thing that will get you through all of this is your own curiosity.
What are we going to do when we miss the bitcoin wave? Be chagrined that we missed the opportunity to get rich, and suffer from the uncertainty of whether to follow through and chase the rally? I think the answer is to always keep a hungry and curious mind. The first thing you need to do is think about the logic and reasons for the bitcoin surge. If those conditions haven’t changed, shouldn’t bitcoin continue to grow? What were the reasons why previous people missed this wave of opportunity? If I’m like him, will I be able to take advantage of it, and the people in 2013 are pounding their chests for missing the 2011 opportunity, and the people in 2017 are reminding them that you missed the 2013 opportunity, and now it turns out that the people in 2017 didn’t realize they were in the middle of it. We often say that “the future generation mourns but does not appreciate, also make the future generation and again mourn the future generation also “, but very often, this is actually extremely difficult. Because the “appreciation of ” itself needs to be based on a clear perception of things, and requires a strong level of logic and cognition, we often find it difficult to do. So many times, can only do to mourn the, a light sentence “hey why then I missed the “. Many people may not realize that before the times, opportunities, noble people, capital and other conditions, the most important thing, in fact, is their own exuberant “curiosity “.
This is the ultimate answer that has been traversed for ten years.
Billions of answers to questions are the most valuable wealth of Zhihu for ten years. The content is spread across various fields and professions, ranging from practical expertise and life experience to wildly unpredictable brainstorms and stories that have been widely spread by countless people. But looking back over the past decade, the most popular question among Zhihu users is neither what Internet finance and big company news, nor what celebrity gossip and entertainment, but… “What do we pursue in our lifetime?
“Such a simple but philosophical question. Through time, you realize that the momentary hustle and bustle will settle down, and ultimately most people’s question is an ultimate question about themselves about the pursuit.
Regardless of the changing generations, regardless of salary, regardless of industry development, the dilemma of each generation is different, but all will face the question: and the world for many years, are you interested in the same style?
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