Mainland foreign trade enterprises recently because of shipping costs, the rising exchange rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar has been anxious, but recently the mainland provinces and cities began to limit electricity, so that factories can not fully open, even if the order can not be completed. These three external blows are like three big mountains pressing the foreign trade enterprises can not breathe.
According to the Hong Kong media, Shanghai to the United States Los Angeles container, from March the average cost of 1,200 U.S. dollars per container to 3,800 U.S. dollars in November, to the British port of Felix du container from 1,200 U.S. dollars to 5,000 U.S. dollars.
In addition, the container price to some areas of North America rose to nearly US$6,000, Europe on average US$4,000 and Southeast Asia nearly US$2,000, all 2 to 3 times more than before the plague.
At the same time, some of the cargo ships to Europe and the United States to the port can not be normal docking, unloading and offshore, so that the container processing time multiplied. The time spent on disembarkation of German containers increased from 1 week to 2 weeks on average.
Ningbo Yongmao Times import and export company deputy general manager said that their company originally had 20 containers shipped to Germany in early November, but until mid-December, there is no clear shipping schedule, equivalent to the parts can not enter, there is no way to normal production.
The newspaper quoted the analysis of industry experts said that shipping demand remains at a high level, while port congestion and lack of boxes will still exist, this imbalance between supply and demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, is expected to price correction is not large.
In addition, because foreign trade is to use the U.S. dollar settlement, the rising exchange rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar also makes foreign trade enterprises cry out.
From the end of May to the present, the yuan against the dollar half-year appreciation of more than 8%, in general, the mainland exports of molds, small home appliances, outdoor products and other profit margins of about 5%.
The person in charge of a textile enterprise in Guangzhou said this, before all the 6.9 or close to 7 floating exchange rate conversion and negotiation price, two or three months later the goods shipped at the end of the year, by then the amount of dollars recovered unchanged, but the exchange rate has fallen to 6.5, quite a shrinkage of 0.4 yuan per dollar.
At present, more than 90% of China’s traditional labor-intensive foreign trade enterprises are dependent on exports, which cannot effectively hedge against rapid changes in the exchange rate, resulting in a significant compression of profits. When the RMB to USD exchange rate changed to 6.5 RMB to 1 USD has touched the bottom line of enterprise pressure, profit margin compressed to negative.
The bad news for these companies is that financial institutions believe the RMB/USD exchange rate will rise again next year.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan China, believes that the RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to rise to 6.35 by the middle of next year and 6.25 by the end of the year, while ANZ Bank predicts that the RMB to USD exchange rate will reach 6.5 by the end of this year and 6.3 by the end of next year.
In addition to shipping costs and the RMB exchange rate of the two big mountains, the mainland recently many places to limit electricity, factories are not enough to open also made enterprises snow.
Recently, mainland Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces and cities began to restrict electricity, some areas will continue to limit power measures until the end of the year.
Some commentators said that power restrictions first to ensure that residents use electricity, so the biggest impact on enterprises. One of the export provinces of Zhejiang was hit the hardest.
Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province, some enterprises received a notice from the local government, in order to save electricity, to start work for three days, shut down for one day. Some foreign trade enterprises said that power restrictions on the business impact is great, worried about the inability to deliver orders on time, resulting in economic losses. A production of decoration materials, the person in charge of the enterprise also said that the market has improved in recent months, foreign trade enterprises are catching up on orders, and now the government a paper order, we are afraid to take orders.
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