With the conclusion of the Democratic and Republican party conventions, the U.S. election campaign has officially entered a state of full preparedness. 2020 will not only hold the 59th presidential election, but will also determine the composition of the new 117th Congress. This year’s congressional elections will see the re-election of all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate. One of the most important aspects of this year’s congressional elections is whether the Democrats will regain the majority position in the Senate.
Currently, the Republicans are the majority party in the Senate with 53 seats, while the Democrats have 47 seats, including two independent Senators, Senator Angus King (I-ME) of Maine and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) of Vermont.
A total of 35 Senate seats will be up for election this congressional session, including two special elections in Arizona and Georgia. Of these 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 are currently controlled by Republicans. In other words, with the current 53-47 Senate political map, the Democrats would have to gain a net gain of at least 4 seats without losing points in the November elections to turn the Senate from red to blue and become the majority party.
If the Democrats add only three seats in the Senate election, and the two parties in Congress end up splitting the Senate 50-50, the change in the White House will have a decisive impact on the future of major bills in Congress. Because at the moment of the critical vote, the President of the Senate, the Vice President of the United States, will be the deciding vote.
Alabama, Arizona, high odds of flipping each other.
Among the 12 Democratic-held Senate seats up for re-election, incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) has the highest risk of being overturned, according to an analysis by U.S. media.
Jones narrowly defeated a scandal-plagued Republican candidate in a special election in December 2017 to take the seat. However, Alabama has traditionally been seen as an ironclad Republican vote bank, and President Trump won the state by nearly 30 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election. Jones is facing a challenge this year from President Trump’s publicly endorsed Republican candidate, Tommy Tuberville, who, despite his well-funded campaign and his lead over Tuberville, is still considered by many to be the most likely Republican flipper in this Senate race.
While the Democrats may lose a seat in Alabama, the Arizona seat of incumbent Republican federal Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) is also very likely to be flipped by the Democrats.
McSally, who was appointed to represent Arizona in 2019, is the only member of the current Senate who has never won a statewide election. Formerly a federal representative, McSally faces a challenge this year from former U.S. astronaut and Democratic candidate Mark Kelly, who is making his political debut. Although a vegetarian-turned-politician, as of mid-July, Kelly had a substantial campaign finance lead over McSally, so the Democrats are hopeful that the seat will be won.
The Six States of War
In addition to the two above-mentioned states that are likely to “change colors” in this election, there are six other key battleground states that are neck-and-neck in terms of polling performance that are attracting attention from the U.S. media and analysts.
It is worth noting that all six of these seats are now held by Republicans, and five of the members of these seats entered Congress in the 2014 midterm elections. Meaning that their constituents will be examining these members’ first terms in the Senate. The six key battleground states include.
Colorado: First-time Republican Senator Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), who was elected to the Senate in 2014, chairs the Asia-Pacific subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has introduced a number of China-related bills over the past six years, and has repeatedly spoken out in support of Taiwan. In 2016, President Trump lost the state by about 5 percentage points.
The Democratic candidate Gardner faces in this election is former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper, who has the support of a former statewide chassis, is coming in with a strong challenge, and the two are currently polling at roughly 50-50, making Gardner’s ability to retain his seat one of the most critical battlegrounds in the Senate race.
North Carolina: Also elected to the Senate for the first time in 2014, the seat held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) is also a target for the Democrats. North Carolina is also a key battleground state in this year’s presidential election.
This time, Tillis faces former North Carolina Senator Cal Cunningham as his opponent. According to U.S. media analysis, both parties have spent a lot of money in the state, and the seat race will be an “expensive” election battle, whether the Democrats can successfully turn the tide is also attracting attention from all walks of life.
Joni Ernst (R-IA) is another Republican facing re-election at the end of his first term as a federal senator. Although Iowa, as an agricultural state, has traditionally leaned Republican politically and President Trump won the 2016 presidential election by 10 points, in the 2018 midterm elections, the Democrats flipped two Republican House seats in the state and the rise of Democratic power cannot be ignored.
Ernst is Iowa’s first female federal senator, and the Democrats are fielding another female candidate this year, Theresa Greenfield, known as the “farm kid,” to challenge Ernst.
Montana: Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), also in his first term as a U.S. Senator, was up for re-election in 2014, and his candidacy was not in jeopardy until the Democrats convinced the state’s former governor, Steve Bullock, to run for the seat.
While Montana has long been viewed as a conservative red (pro-Republican) state, where Trump led by more than 20 points in the 2016 election, Bullock, a Democrat, was also elected governor that same year and enjoyed broad public support. 2018 midterm elections saw the state’s then-Democratic candidate, Sen. Jon Tester (D-N.Y.), run for the seat. (MT) also successfully challenged for Congress and is now a federal senator. As a result, there is much interest in whether Daines will be able to hold onto his seat.
GEORGIA: Georgia’s rapidly changing political leanings in recent years have put another first-term Republican federal senator, Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), to the test this year. While Perdue’s campaign finances are optimistic, the fundraising prowess of the Democratic frontrunner, Jon Ossoff, should not be underestimated. Notably, according to Georgia’s election rules, a candidate must surpass 50 percent of the vote and achieve an absolute majority to be declared the winner. If neither candidate wins, a special election will be held in January of next year to determine the winner. As a result, it is highly unlikely that Georgia will be able to elect a new senator in November, and the real outcome will not be known until the special election in January of next year.
Maine: Unlike other Senate battleground states with first-term Republican senators, current Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-MN) is one of the senior Republican members of the Senate. However, the Democrats are sending Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon to challenge Collins in hopes of taking the seat this time.
The 2020 congressional and presidential elections are both scheduled for November 3.
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