Data released on June 30 showed that the U.S. ADP employment change of 692,000 in June, exceeding market expectations of 600,000, the previous value was revised down to 886,000.
ADP employment data maintained positive growth for the sixth consecutive month.
In terms of sub-segments, the leisure and hospitality industry made the largest contribution, with employment increasing by 332,000 in June, compared with 440,000 in May; construction employment increased by 47,000 in June, compared with 65,000 in May; manufacturing employment increased by 19,000 in June, compared with 52,000 in May; trade/transportation/utilities employment increased by 62,000 in June, compared with 118,000 in May. The number of jobs in the financial services sector increased by 10,000 in June, compared with an increase of 20,000 in May; the number of jobs in the professional/business services sector increased by 53,000 in June, compared with an increase of 68,000 in May.
ADP Chief Economist Nela commented that the current U.S. job market recovery remains strong, with strong job growth in the second quarter.
Although the number of people currently employed is still nearly 7 million less than before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the number of new jobs added since the beginning of 2021 totaled about 3 million. Service providers are the hardest hit sector. The leisure and hospitality sector has seen the strongest growth as businesses across the country begin to return to full work.
The U.S. Department of Labor will release the much-anticipated nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. The market currently expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 706,000 in June, compared to 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.6% from 5.8%.
After the release of ADP data, spot gold fell slightly by $2 in the short term; the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.452%.
The market for the Federal Reserve interest rate hike time point remained largely unchanged. According to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike to the 0.25%-0.50% range is 0%; the probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 0%.
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