Faced with the frequent intrusion of Chinese military aircraft into the airspace southwest of Taiwan, the Taiwan Navy has been conducting intensive “air layer airspace” drills in the southwest coast since Friday (October 9). Military experts say that this represents Taiwan’s determination not to show weakness in the face of China’s increasing intimidation of force, and the choice of drills in this sensitive sea and air region is intended to show the PLA that Taiwan has the determination and war power to defend itself and prepare for war. They also said that the frequent disturbance of Taiwan by communist planes is intended to fight a war of attrition with Taiwan, which will ultimately be detrimental not to the Taiwan military, but to the PLA.
According to the drill report sheet released by the Taiwan Naval Command, the exercises will be conducted in the southwestern Taiwan Sea on October 9, 15, 22, and 27 in the “air layer airspace” of various exercises, of which the first day of the afternoon session on Friday has been conducted in the 5,000-25,000-foot airspace around the central mountain range of Taiwan’s home island, and in the 5,000-13,000-foot airspace off the southwestern Taiwan Sea.
According to a Facebook page of a military fan, the temporary radar station of the “Southwest Taiwan Sea Fan Page”, which received the aircraft’s flight path signal, early Friday morning a common aircraft broke into Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone, and at 7:45 a.m. was broadcasted by the Taiwan Air Force to drive away, demanding an immediate “turn around and disengage”. “However, at about 7:50 a.m., the commuter aircraft flying at an altitude of 7,000 meters responded with a radio broadcast: “Taiwan aircraft, this is the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, conducting routine training, please do not interfere with my normal operations.
Taiwan’s military drills, commando aircraft continue to infiltrate and reconnoiter
When the Taiwan navy drilled in the southwestern coast between 2:00 and 3:30 p.m., the Southwestern Taiwan Fan Page also received radar signals from a total of five commando planes, one air submarine 200, two air submarine 500 and two commando planes of unknown type. Strength presumptions, (the five co-pilots) were all outside of the Air Identification Zone (AIZ) and did not enter the AIZ.”
He said the reconnaissance aircraft flew from Kadena base in Okinawa, Japan, to Clark base in the Philippines early in the morning, and then passed near the exercise area as the Taiwan naval exercise was coming to an end, and appeared to deliberately turn on the ADS-B (Automatic Return Surveillance-Broadcast) signal to make its position clear before flying back to Kadena base in Okinawa.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense also issued a military update late in the evening confirming that a total of one Y-8 sortie and one Y-9 sortie of the Chinese Communist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) broke into Taiwan’s southwestern airspace on Friday, and that, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the Air Force has consistently “dispatched air patrol forces to respond, broadcast a distraction, and pursue and monitor anti-aircraft missiles.
Taiwan Shows Self-Defense
In an interview with the Voice of America, Su Zi Yun, director of the Institute of National Defense Resources and Industry, a Taiwan-based think tank, said that although the timing of this southwest airspace has recently been highly sensitive and a possible hotspot for tensions and conflicts, it is necessary for Taiwan to conduct drills in this area.
He said: “Taiwan, the main thing is, first of all, to protect its own airspace, so the air and sea exercises, this is a correct approach, on the one hand to show their own right to self-defense, the second is also to give allies a common security (common defense) contribution… The timing (timing) is very good,” he said. Important, if Taiwan shows weakness, China will cut sausage and will keep doing (provocations), although it is a sensitive time, but it is necessary.”
Su Ziyun said that in addition to demonstrating a willingness to defend itself, the drills also demonstrate Taiwan’s ability to maintain limited air and sea power to counter the PLA as part of a deterrence strategy. He assessed that the Taiwan Navy should send models including P3-antisubmarine aircraft to conduct joint naval and air anti-submarine training to demonstrate airspace defense and monitoring capabilities of the Bashi Channel.
In addition to the sea and airspace, Su pointed out that the topography of the seafloor is also an important area because it is the northernmost part of the deep water area in the South China Sea, and there is an underwater corridor that connects to the Strait of Bashi Channel.
Strategic Importance of the Underwater Corridor
He said that once Chinese nuclear submarines use this underwater corridor to sneak into the Philippine Sea, they pose a direct threat to the U.S. West Coast because they carry submarine-launchable ballistic missiles that are within range of the U.S. West Coast once they enter the Philippine Sea east of Taiwan, and thus the geostrategic and topographical importance of this area.
The U.S. often sends Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft P8-A to the South China Sea to search for Chinese nuclear submarines, and once they are found east of the Bus Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines, they will track and accompany them, much like the Cold War submarine warfare game between the U.S. and Russia.
The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday in Tokyo that the U.S. will not sit idly by and watch China use force against Taiwan, which is a very clear diplomatic statement.
He interpreted the U.S. “means that, in the event of China’s military adventurous actions against Taiwan, the United States will send naval and air forces, as well as ground troops, to Taiwan to assist. He said, in accordance with the U.S. Code of War, the U.S. President would have had 90 days to wage war; and the U.S. Congress is considering the “Taiwan Defense Act” will formally terminate its strategic ambiguity policy, further obliging the U.S. President, to ensure that the United States fulfill the “Taiwan Relations Act “obligation to maintain the U.S. military’s ability to prevent China from committing an armed violation of Taiwan and creating a fait accompli.
Taiwan to end war with war.
Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Deputy CEO Yen Chien-Fa said that although the situation across the Taiwan Strait is tense, but to guard against the PLA’s move, Taiwan does not seek war and does not provoke, so it adopts a “war to stop war” self-protection strategy in its own airspace.
In an interview with the Voice of America, he said, “We are afraid, because communist planes often cross the center line, that if they make a move, Taiwan will have to counteract them. That is, we have to have a presence on either side (of the maneuver) to deter them from making a move.”
Taiwan is a party to a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Yen said, and this tension may continue until after the U.S. presidential election when there is a possibility or time for it to ease, so Taiwan must always express its determination to defend itself and increase its readiness and even its military budget in order to gain the support of other countries in the region or the U.S. willingness to assist in defense.
But he said that stopping the war with war does not mean that Taiwan is not willing to talk to China, and the DPP government is always willing to talk to China as long as the CCP does not set the premise of “one China” dialogue.
The U.S.-led international community’s strategy for the Taiwan Strait has become clearer and clearer, but it is still not choosing sides and demanding the status quo.
Xi Jinping’s Reign and the Decline of National Power
The Chinese, under Xi Jinping’s administration, can only tolerate the option of Taiwan accepting one country, two systems and becoming part of it, which is against the free will of the Taiwanese, so from an objective point of view, he believes that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait must eventually fight a war, although Taiwan does not seek war, but must do the worst to prepare for war.
However, he said, from the international environment, China’s war against Taiwan is actually winning less and less, because, China’s war against Taiwan, the challenge is not only the United States, now it seems, even Japan, Australia, India, Britain, Canada and other countries may join the war, how China has the strength to win? It is likely to be like the Empress Dowager of the Qing Dynasty against the Eight-Nation Alliance, which was defeated at the start of the war.
Even though Xi Jinping’s power is now unchallenged and there is no term limit, the longer he stays in office and sticks to the same policies, the weaker China will become and the more its internal and external relations will deteriorate.
As for the short term, China continues to increase military pressure and intimidation against Taiwan, the PLA is believed to be planning a war of attrition, but military experts say that if China wants to fight a war of attrition, it will be at its own disadvantage.
According to Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Yan De-Fa, who was questioned by the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday (October 7), 1,711 aerial sorties have entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) this year, including 49 sorties across the centerline of the strait and 217 sorties into the southwest ADIZ, which is the most ever; as for the Taiwan Air Force, it has launched 2,972 aerial sorties so far this year, including 76 sorties into the southwest ADIZ, which is the most ever. to deal with common aircraft crossing the center line. To this end, about 25.5 billion yuan (about $900 million) has been spent this year, about 5% of the total annual military budget, while the average cost per sortie is as high as 8.5 million Taiwan dollars.
Fighting a War of Attrition Is Not Good for the Communist Army
The DOD’s algorithm may include the cost of other airport projects, so it is high, but if the cost of the F-16 fighter jets as published by the U.S. Department of Defense, the net cost per hour of flight (including depreciation, fuel and replacement parts, etc.) should only be about $8,000, so if you want to fight a war of attrition, Taiwan should still be able to support it.
He said that fighting a war of attrition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is actually more unfavorable to China because the life cycle of China’s Russian fighters, domestically produced J10s, and their engines are very short, with Russian fighters and engines having a life cycle of only 3,000 hours and 1,000 hours respectively, far less than the 10,000 hours of Taiwan’s main F16 fighters.
In addition, Su Ziyun said, the Chinese warplanes proper rate is also a big problem, Su Kai-30 proper rate of only 46-53%, the new Chinese warplanes proper rate of research may be a little better, up to 60%, but still far below the F16 warplanes 75-80% of the proper rate, that is to say, China’s existing 900 advanced warplanes, probably can only maintain 540 can fight, and China’s current enemy is not only the United States, as well as Japan and India and other neighbors, and then how to see, to fight a war of attrition, the PLA more unfavorable.
The military fans of “Taiwan’s Southwest China Sea Fan Page” also agree that a war of attrition is not good for the PLA because, in addition to the longevity of military aircraft and engines, the rate of improvement, and the enemies on China’s borders, once a commuter plane comes to the southwest airspace to reconnoiter, it must first put up an identification code to prevent a collision with a civilian aircraft. The 500 AWACS aircraft accompanying the dual mission is not a small depletion, and he said: “It is very unwise for the mainland to be so intimidated every day, and the Taiwanese, who have been baptized by 70 years of democratic education, will instead be even more offended… If one day Taiwan really declares its independence, it will also be the result of these cultural attacks and armed intimidation.”
According to a new poll released Wednesday by the Taiwan Elections and Democratization Survey, the percentage of Taiwanese who support independence is at a 16-year high, with 63.4% of respondents saying they support Taiwan’s “peaceful independence,” and if the pursuit of independence leads to war, it is the so-called “war independence. “The number of respondents who support it is also still high at 44.2%.
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