Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, plans to visit Southeast Asia this month, some experts say, in large part to support U.S. geopolitical interests, including joining forces with smaller countries eager to resist Chinese expansion.
Kan’s planned visits to Indonesia and Vietnam suggest that he will follow the policies of his predecessor, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who left office in September. Within Japan, Kan has so far been seen as more focused on domestic policy, making him a dark horse on the diplomatic front.
Southeast Asian countries are unhappy with China’s military activities in the South China Sea, and Abe supports U.S. aid to Southeast Asian countries, Japan’s largest security partner. Neither Japan nor the United States claims sovereignty over the South China Sea, but both want China to keep it open for international shipping.
Japan has traditionally aligned itself with the U.S., but since 2017, the Japanese government has extended goodwill to its largest trading partner, China, which has so far not isolated the United States. Yun Sun, director of the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said the U.S. government would welcome a reaffirmation or confirmation of relations with Japan.
“I think that’s certainly what the U.S. would like to see, and I think Japan also feels more comfortable doing that than pointing its finger directly and openly at China,” he said. So Japan has an inherent interest in developing and deepening its relationship with Southeast Asian countries.”
Vietnam and China vie for sovereignty over a portion of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer South China Sea. Indonesia protests the passage of Chinese coast guard vessels through its exclusive economic zone. Three other Southeast Asian countries and Taiwan each dispute China’s claims to the South China Sea. The South China Sea is prized for its fisheries and energy reserves. China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea and has filled in reefs to expand some of its artificial islets, in some cases for military purposes.
Over the past 20 years, Japan has repeatedly driven Chinese aircraft out of parts of the East China Sea where their sovereignty is disputed, making Japan a common denominator with Southeast Asian countries.
Jeffrey Kingston, a history lecturer at Temple University’s Japan campus, said the trip will help Kan “show his stuff” in the diplomatic arena. Kan is considered to be stronger in domestic policy than in foreign affairs.
According to Japanese media reports, Japan hosted the second-ever “Quadruple Alliance” ministerial talks in Tokyo last week. The four Western allies – Australia, India, the United States, and Japan – are wary of China’s maritime expansion.
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo urged other officials to unite to protect the “partners” from “exploitation, corruption, and coercion” by China’s ruling party. China protested and called for more tolerance. The coalition of four nations agreed to meet again.
Kingston said, “These are two very important Southeast Asian countries in terms of Japan’s diplomatic relations, and obviously this does seem to have geostrategic significance in the wake of the Tokyo Quadripartite Alliance meeting.
Pompeo said in July that the U.S. would support smaller countries that are under pressure from China’s maritime expansion. The two rival superpowers, the United States and China, have been embroiled in trade, technology and consular disputes over the past two years since the Cold War. The U.S. sees Japan as one of a number of Asian democracies that it can rely on for Asian geopolitical support.
Under the leadership of Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) reached an agreement with Vietnam in July to fund six patrol boats to be built by the Vietnamese Coast Guard. The boats will be built in Japan. Japan is Indonesia’s largest donor, accounting for 45 percent of all foreign development assistance to the country since 1960.
Kingston said Indonesia, with a population of 267 million, and Vietnam, which chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2020, are regarded by Japan as “the two leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
“Basically, Kan wants to boost his diplomatic credentials because Kan is usually considered to be a domestic policy elite, so he is unlikely to be as foreign policy inclined as his predecessor.” Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, maritime security researcher Gao Ruilian said.
Abe is a strong supporter of the United States, but in 2017 he expressed interest in joining Beijing’s seven-year-old, more than $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative aims to build infrastructure and establish trade routes in East Asia. That year was a “watershed” in Japan’s stance toward China, Sun Yun said. Previously, Japan and China had argued for years over the East China Sea and the legacy of World War II.
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