Americans are willing to stand up for their allies against the military threat posed by China, according to a new poll by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank.
The think tank surveyed the public and opinion leaders in the United States, Europe, and Asia about their future policy toward China.
When asked whether they would be willing to take risks to defend allies and partners against a military threat from China, most Americans are prepared to take considerable risks to protect allies and partners against the Chinese military threat. Allies and partners in the poll refer to Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, and unspecified South China Sea partners.
On a scale between a high of 10, “willing to take significant risks,” and a low of 0, “not taking risks,” for Japan and Taiwan, for example, U.S. opinion leaders give a median value of 8.86 on the question of defending Japan, with the American public giving a value of 8.86 on the question. The median value for the defense of Taiwan is 7.93 among U.S. opinion leaders and 6.69 among the public.
Less than half of the U.S. public said that the best approach to China’s national security is to prioritize cooperation with allies and partners, even if that cooperation damages U.S.-China relations.
Jude Blanchette, director of China studies at CSIS, said, “We’re seeing more sustained competition rather than shifts with regime changes in the U.S. government.”
CSIS expert Bonnie S. Glaser said the poll results “reflect a growing understanding of the threat that Americans face from China from our allies, especially Taiwan. This reflects a growing awareness of Taiwan in the United States,” she said. “It’s a major shift that we’re seeing now. “
In recent months, working with allies against China has become a key feature of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. Secretary of State Pompeo has brought together transatlantic and Asian allies to reach security and economic agreements to isolate or defend China.
CSIS’s findings also indicate growing concern about the growing security threat posed by China. According to the poll, 54 percent of the American public believes that China poses the greatest challenge to the United States, with Russia coming in a distant second at 22 percent.
Overall, 60% of the U.S. public believes that a major military conflict between the United States and China is possible, but unlikely; 11% believe that a major military conflict between the United States and China is inevitable.
According to the poll, Americans are divided on whether to prioritize international agreements or direct bilateral tariffs in order to economically force China to change its economic policies. Overall, 35% of the American public supports using international agreements and rules to pressure China to change its economic policies, while 33% support using unilateral measures such as economic sanctions and tariffs to pressure China.
On the technology front, 71% of U.S. opinion leaders surveyed advocate banning Chinese companies like Huawei from the U.S. 5G sector. This result is similar to the sentiments of opinion leaders in other countries surveyed. Seventy-seven percent of U.S. partners and allies in the high-tech sector surveyed agreed with banning Chinese companies like Huawei in their country’s 5G sector. 50.9 percent of U.S. partners and allies in other sectors said they agreed with banning Chinese companies like Huawei in their own countries’ 5G space.
The shift in American perceptions of China corresponds to a major change in the Trump administration’s strategy toward China. Breaking with the consensus on economic interaction that the United States reached with China decades ago, the current administration has combined defense policy, economic policy, and a new commitment to human rights to counter China’s desire to change the rules of the current world order.
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