President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held a summit at the White House on Friday (May 21) for bilateral talks on areas of mutual interest. U.S. experts on East Asian affairs said the summit was aimed at reaffirming the alliance between Washington and Seoul, which is not eager to commit to the “quadrilateral security dialogue” system to confront Beijing.
Speaking to reporters after his meeting with Moon, President Joe Biden said the two countries will work on issues of regional stability, such as maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Moon said at a press conference that South Korea and the U.S. will work more closely to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He also noted the two leaders’ commitment to work closely together to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The White House released a joint statement Friday evening, stressing that the U.S. and South Korea oppose all activities that threaten or undermine the international order and will work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Seoul may not be interested in joining the “quartet” of countries to counter Beijing
Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga held a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, becoming the first foreign leader to be hosted by President Biden at the White House. Following the summit between Biden and Kan, the U.S. and Japan issued a joint statement opposing Beijing’s aggressive claims and actions in the waters of the South China Sea, while stressing the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
In the period since then, some analysts and commentators have suggested that Washington has been pushing for Seoul to join the U.S.-led Quadripartite Security Dialogue (QUAD) system or work with the four countries in the system to confront Beijing.
Dr. Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, told VOA that he does not see South Korea moving in any new direction toward joining or strengthening its cooperation with the QUAD system.
“I think the point of the U.S.-South Korea summit was to reaffirm the traditional alliance, with Washington pledging to defend South Korea without asking Seoul to pay more and South Korea pledging to invest in U.S. high-tech industries,” Weitz said.
Weitz also believes that while Biden and Moon may have discussed China’s bullying tactics in the region in private, Moon “avoided taking a position and taking any action in public.
Scott Harold, a senior fellow at RAND, a U.S. think tank, also believes that South Korea is unlikely to join the “quartet” of countries, but will cooperate on specific issues.
Speaking to VOA, Harold said the Biden administration would have a strong interest in having South Korea participate in some way in the Quadripartite Security Dialogue system on many individual issues, but Biden would not seek to have Seoul join the Quadripartite system after the summit.
“I don’t think that’s realistic, and it’s not what the Biden administration envisions. I think they would want South Korea to cooperate in the Quartet on one or two key issues: funding for vaccine production, for example, or trying to get South Korea to support some initiative to promote free and open navigation on the high seas and in the South China Sea,” Heckert said.
Ma Zhao, a professor of East Asian studies at Washington University in St. Louis, believes U.S. partners in the Asia-Pacific region may take a wait-and-see approach as the U.S.-China rivalry unfolds. “They’re not going to leap up and respond aggressively and put themselves in the crossfire of great power competition,” Ma said.
Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank, was formerly the CIA’s expert on North and South Korea.
Klingner told VOA that Washington tried to convince South Korea to criticize Beijing more openly even before Moon took office, but to little avail.
“Seoul was worried about offending its biggest trading partner, didn’t want to get involved and wanted to stand quietly on the sidelines. South Korea complains about U.S. pressure, but Washington feels that when shared values and principles are under attack, democracies should stand up for themselves and don’t need to have Washington remind Seoul of that,” Kollinger said.
Collinge’s view echoes that of Weitz of the Hudson Institute, which argues that Washington will continue to urge Seoul in private to get on the same page as other democracies, but the Moon administration remains less willing.
How will the Bay-Moon Summit move the Korean Peninsula?
The security situation on the Korean Peninsula and the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons have been one of the key elements in the bilateral relationship between Washington and Seoul.
At a press conference Friday, Biden and Moon expressed their willingness to reach out to North Korea through diplomatic channels and take pragmatic steps to reduce tensions. Biden announced the appointment of Sung Kim as his special envoy to North Korea. Sung Kim is the State Department’s acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs and served as special envoy to North Korea during the Obama administration.
His appointment reflects the Biden administration’s commitment to leveraging diplomacy and working closely with regional allies,” said Patrick M. Cronin, chairman of the Hudson Institute’s Asia-Pacific Security Program. The only condition for the president to open a dialogue with North Korea is that Pyongyang must be willing to discuss denuclearization, a goal to which it has been committed for the past three decades or so. This is the minimum condition that makes a diplomatic strategy more feasible. But neither leader is under any illusions that North Korea is willing to make concessions.”
Ma Zhao, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis, argues that North Korea is now a nuclear state and that Kim Jong Un is not facing any immediate existential threat. He simply wants to consolidate his regime and his new status as a nuclear power.
“On the other hand, Moon is currently swamped by his own party’s political scandals and partisan struggles, which have consumed much of his policy attention and political resources. The North Korea issue is not a priority on Moon’s agenda,” Ma Zhao said.
Weitz of the Hudson Institute, on the other hand, believes Moon will urge the Biden administration to take some action to restart inter-Korean diplomacy within the Korean Peninsula before he leaves office as South Korean president. “However, given that North Korea now seems to be pursuing a single-minded isolationist policy that the U.S. is having trouble dealing with; so I don’t expect the U.S. to be able to offer much help,” Weitz said.
According to Heckcott, a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, this shows that the U.S. and South Korea are significantly divided on North Korea.
The Moon Jae-in administration does ideologically believe that appeasing North Korea and providing it with assurances is key, and is more focused on trying to make Pyongyang happy, or even Beijing happy, Heckert said. The Biden administration, on the other hand, believes that the U.S. does not seek hostility with North Korea, and that the U.S. seeks only the denuclearization of North Korea.
President Biden said right at the press conference that the denuclearization of North Korea’s seminuclearization was a U.S. goal, and it remains so.
Ma Zhao, an expert in East Asian studies at Washington University in St. Louis, argued that another factor that should not be overlooked is that the Biden administration has not yet fully clarified exactly how the overall U.S. strategy to compete with China is headed. “Therefore, any breakthrough regarding the North Korean nuclear crisis is currently subject to changes in the U.S.-China relationship,” Ma Zhao said.
Experts: No breakthrough at U.S.-South Korea summit, only reaffirmation of alliance cooperation
Experts and scholars interviewed by Voice of America generally agreed that the summit between Biden and Moon made no breakthrough or stone-cold progress or achievements, but more of a reaffirmation of the alliance between Washington and Seoul, with cooperation on vaccines, high technology and investment.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said at a press conference that the U.S. and South Korea will have joint capacity to provide a new crown vaccine for the Indo-Pacific region. The two sides also discussed ways to combat climate warming.
President Biden, for his part, announced that vaccines will be provided to 550,000 South Korean service members who work closely with the U.S. military.
Biden’s administration, while hoping to persuade Seoul to support some U.S. plans in the Indo-Pacific region, must also pay attention to Seoul’s concerns, said Heckert, a RAND Corporation scholar, in an analysis.
“For example, how to move forward with the transfer of operational command of the U.S.-South Korea Joint Command, how to restart routine joint military exercises, how to deal with some of the post-negotiation issues regarding the special measures agreement, etc. And South Korea has their own issues, including cooperation in areas such as vaccines, batteries and semiconductors, among others,” Hecourt said.
Ma Zhao, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis, said he was not expecting any breakthrough in this first summit between Biden and Moon; the reason is that Moon has now entered the lame duck period of his presidency and is facing a tough re-election campaign in 2022. A few months ago, his party lost a major election in Seoul and Busan, South Korea’s two largest cities.
Ma Zhao believes it is understandable that Biden and Moon focused more on issues such as U.S.-South Korea trade, defense cost-sharing, or realigning the U.S.-led regional security framework during their meeting.
“All of these areas have changed during the Trump administration,” he said.
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