U.S. Secretary of State John Blinken kicks off a trip to northern Europe this week to attend a meeting of Arctic Council foreign ministers. Analysts say the visit reflects a return to U.S. leadership in the Arctic, and it will be interesting to see how it responds to the growing influence of Russia and Communist China in the region.
After first visiting Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark, Blinken arrived in Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, on Tuesday, and on Wednesday will attend the biennial meeting of foreign ministers of the Arctic Council, an international forum of eight countries bordering the Arctic and six Arctic indigenous groups. After that, Blinken will also travel to Greenland.
Global warming is rapidly transforming the Arctic, with widening waterways providing a new arena for economic competition and military confrontation among major powers, and Russia and Communist China are seeking new opportunities for expansion in the region.
Victoria Herrmann, president and executive director of the Arctic Institute, a Washington think tank, told Voice of America, “He [Blinken] wants to show the Arctic nations that after four years of political tensions, the United States is ready to work together again, and that through strong leadership on climate issues, the United States is ready to be a far more powerful regional force than ever before.”
When then-Secretary of State Pompeo attended the Arctic Council in 2019, the eight countries made a rare appearance without a joint statement. At the time, Pompeo harshly criticized Communist China and Russia for their ambitions in the Arctic Circle and portrayed climate change more as an economic opportunity than a problem.
U.S. and Russian Foreign Ministers Meet
During the Arctic Council, Blinken will hold his first face-to-face meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which will set the stage for a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during President Joe Biden’s visit to Europe in June.
The meeting between the U.S. and Russian foreign ministers comes at a time of escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow. The United States has imposed a series of sanctions and diplomatic expulsions on Russia in response to Russian cyberattacks, interference in the U.S. election, and the ongoing occupation of Crimea.
On the eve of the meeting between the two sides, Russia is once again showing a strong stance. Lavrov publicly warned the West on Monday against making sovereignty claims in the Arctic and challenging Russia’s influence in the region.
Lavrov said: “For a long time it has been absolutely clear to everyone that this is our territory, this is our land. We have a responsibility to ensure the security of our Arctic coast.”
Russia, which has some 25,000 kilometers of Arctic Ocean coastline, has long held itself out as a superpower in the Arctic.
James Kraska, a professor of international law at the U.S. Naval War College, believes the meeting helped inform the U.S. of Russia’s movements in the Arctic, where the latter will take over the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council.
He told Voice of America, “With Russia assuming the chairmanship of the Arctic Council, Blinken will seek common ground with Russia and learn about Russia’s areas of focus, which may be related to shipping and offshore energy in the Northern Sea Route.”
During Iceland’s rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council, the country focused primarily on marine and maritime environmental issues, while Russia may focus more on economic development when it takes over. The Arctic contains 25 percent of the planet’s untapped oil and natural gas, with a mineral value of $30 trillion.
As the Arctic ice melts, Russia hopes to use the Arctic’s shipping lanes to export oil and gas to overseas markets. The Arctic now accounts for at least 10 percent of Russia’s GDP and about 20 percent of its exports.
Herman noted that Russia’s involvement in the Arctic is driven not only by economic imperatives but also by political-military considerations, an important reason why the United States needs a stronger presence in the region.
Russia’s relationship with the Arctic is more complex than mere interests,” she said. Having a strong military presence and profile in the Arctic is important for Russia’s national identity and posture against the West.”
Russian military exercises near NATO airspace and in the Arctic are increasing in number and scope. In March, Russia conducted a week-long comprehensive military exercise in the Arctic that included three nuclear submarines breaking ice in the Arctic and warplanes flying over the Arctic.
As part of projecting power into the Arctic, Russia is moving forward with an ambitious infrastructure development program. The Russian military has refurbished airstrips in recent years, deployed new surveillance and air defense systems and plans to build ports on the so-called Northern Sea Route, which will strengthen its military presence along the Arctic coastline.
“We are concerned about some of the increased military activity in the Arctic” that increases the “risk of accidents and miscalculations,” Blinken said Tuesday at a joint briefing with Icelandic Foreign Minister Gudlaugur Thor Thordarson. This increases the risk of “accidents and miscalculations” while “undermining the common goal of a peaceful and sustainable future for the region.
To defend the passage of Arctic shipping routes and freedom of navigation, the U.S. Navy held two exercises with European allies in the Barents Sea near Russia last year, the first since the mid-1980s.
Communist China vies for Arctic influence
At the same time, the United States also needs to be wary of Russia joining forces with the Chinese Communist Party in the Arctic, which wants to expand its geopolitical influence in the region, and Russia, which needs the Communist Party’s capital to realize its ambitions and counter NATO.
Camilla T. N. Sørensen, a China expert at the Royal Danish Defence College, told VOA, “Russia’s military buildup in the Arctic is a threat to the United States, while the CCP’s economic, diplomatic and political activities are seen as a challenge through the broader prism of U.S.-China great power competition. “
The Chinese Communist Party will declare itself a “near-Arctic state” in its 2018 white paper “China’s Arctic Policy,” arguing that the region should be treated as a global commons. Chinese scholars argue that control of the region would give Beijing a geographical advantage of “three continents and two oceans” in the northern hemisphere.
Although the Communist Party has not sought territorial claims in the Arctic and has been rather conservative in responding to issues related to opening up the Arctic, Beijing has steadily advanced its influence in the region. In recent years, it has sent naval vessels to the Arctic, built its first icebreaker, and added the “Silk Road on Ice” to its signature “One Belt, One Road” initiative, saying it will cooperate with Russia on Arctic shipping routes.
Mike Sfraga, director of the Polar Research Institute at the Wilson Research Center, a think tank, told VOA that the Chinese Communist Party is eager to influence and shape the future geopolitical landscape in areas they consider important.
He said, “While the Arctic is not a top priority for the CCP, with the emergence of new oceans, the need to diversify energy sources, and increased access to the Arctic through investment and research activities, the CCP is eager to become more relevant and active in a region that will only grow in global importance.”
The CCP has sought control of infrastructure with military uses in the Arctic, including the development of a large regional port and a submarine base in Sweden; the purchase of an old naval base and three airports in Greenland; and the construction of a golf course and airport in an area of Iceland where golf is not playable.
The Chinese Communist Party has increased its influence in near-Arctic countries in a variety of ways, such as efforts to reach trade agreements with Arctic countries and using economic leverage to exert political influence.
The U.S. is increasingly concerned about the Communist Party’s intentions to invest in the Arctic and is persuading allies to increase security scrutiny of Communist investments.
During a visit to Denmark on Monday, Blinken said of Chinese Communist Party investments, “There are some areas that are particularly sensitive when it comes to investment. Denmark has just passed important investment review legislation, which is important because we do want to make sure that we protect the most sensitive industries and technologies from intellectual property theft.”
Nordic parties are also increasingly wary of strategic investments by the Chinese Communist Party. In April, Greenland called off a rare earth mining project in which the CCP was the largest shareholder, and Canada vetoed the acquisition of a gold mine in the Canadian Arctic by a CCP state-owned company last December on national security grounds.
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