In recent years, as China continues to create tensions in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait, the traditional concept of the “Asia-Pacific region” in international politics has been increasingly replaced by the “Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific region, as the strategic region with the greatest potential for military conflict, has received increasing attention from the outside world. What is the importance of this region? Which countries influence the situation in this region? What can be done to ensure peace, prosperity and stability in the Indo-Pacific region? If you want to have a preliminary understanding of these questions, you may want to take a look at a new book “The Indo-Pacific Race” published in Taiwan last September.
Rory Medcalf, the author of The Indo-Pacific Race, is the Dean of the National Security College at the Australian National University, a former diplomat posted to New Delhi and Tokyo, and a former senior strategic analyst with Australia’s top intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessment. He has considerable authority in analyzing the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. In his view, the Indo-Pacific region is very important, a frontline of conflict between China and the United States, and a new hot spot in global strategic competition. At present, the Indo–Pacific region is already crowded with soldiers, and the situation has entered a highly unstable state, which is likely to be the trigger point of World War III. Therefore, the author believes that it is important to understand the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. In his book, he focuses on China’s provocations in the East China Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan Sea, and China-India border, the U.S. layout in the Indo-Pacific region, and the actions of Japan, India, Australia, Indonesia, and other countries.
The author points out that China’s diplomatic attempts are mainly manifested in three aspects: war-wolf diplomacy, Belt and Road, and the fight for leadership of international organizations. I think this summary, though nothing new, is precise in its simplicity, and also gives important reference indicators for us to assess the expansion dynamics of the CCP. In other words, by carefully analyzing the development of these three aspects, we can roughly judge the success or failure of China’s foreign expansion. In addition, contrary to the mainstream opinion, the author has considerable reservations about whether China can compete head-on with the United States and attempt to become the world’s number one power. The author also has doubts about China’s military power and whether there is an absolute military advantage if China were to attack Taiwan. He argues that the military has to spend half of what it spends on maintaining its armaments, and it is doubtful that China can maintain a huge military advantage all the time given its already declining economic development. What’s more, this is an army with no combat experience. In contrast, the U.S. military has a great deal of combat experience.
The author devotes a major part of the book to the Indo-Pacific Strategy, from the conceptualization to the implementation of specific policies, pointing out that not only the United States, but also other countries, especially Japan’s Shinzo Abe, have been instrumental in the design and promotion of the Indo-Pacific Strategy. One of the core mechanisms of the Indo-Pacific Strategy is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, and the earliest initiator of this mechanism was Shinzo Abe. Another country is Australia. Although Abe was the first to propose a four-nation alliance, it was Australia that consciously proposed the term “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, as early as 2013. The author represents the hawkish position of the current Australian government, which is hotly debated in Australia. He argues that there are differences between China’s own values and Australia’s, and that China has not risen to be that powerful, and is even showing signs of decline in some areas. Australia needs to establish free connectivity to the sea first, to avoid falling under the control of the mainland powers. Supporting him is Dibble, who was once Australia’s Deputy Minister of Defense. He believes that Australia must actively maintain an Indo-Pacific strategic balance with the United States that is conducive to democracy and freedom and openness, and must respond strongly to China’s actions that undermine the status quo. He also openly advocates that when something happens in the Taiwan Strait and the United States gets involved, Australia must join in and not stay out of it.
In short, this book gives us a detailed description of the Indo-Pacific strategy and the strategic intentions of several major countries in the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance, which is of great reference value. For those who are interested in this topic, you may want to find it and read it.
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