U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Davidson assesses that the Chinese Communist Party fears an attack on Taiwan within six years. Strategic expert Jie Zhong said that if the Chinese Communist Party wants to violate Taiwan by force, it will not be able to reach the requirement of a quick war. Strategic expert Su Ziyun pointed out that the core of the problem lies in the value of democracy and freedom, which is the choice of the way of life of the people of Taiwan.
The Long Yingtai Cultural Foundation held a lecture on “Your Strategy, My Home (2) An Island in the Island Chain Strategy – A Military Perspective on the Cross-Straits” in Taipei on May 8, hosted by Su Ziyun, director of the Institute for National Defense Strategy and Resources at the National Defense Security Research Institute, with National Policy Jie Zhong, a senior research associate at the National Research Foundation, gave the lecture.
Jie Zhong said that the Chinese military believes that a forceful attack on Taiwan would be costly and would face international political and diplomatic constraints, especially when military intervention by powerful enemies (mainly the United States) and many countries in territorial dispute with mainland China and China’s border areas such as Tibet and Xinjiang would provoke a chain of events.
He pointed out that in order to avoid military intervention by powerful enemies or to provide enough time for the chain effect, the Communist Party stressed the need for quick action to break up the organized resistance of the national army in the shortest possible time.
“Committing Taiwan by force is the CCP’s last resort to deal with the Taiwan issue.” Jie Zhong pointed out that everyone can breathe a little easier about the defensive strength of the National Army, which according to Chinese scholars is actually rated higher than many Taiwanese people. They believe that the national army is currently performing well in four areas: strategic early warning, joint pressure control, joint air defense and defense system.
Jie Zhong said, first of all, the Chinese Communist Party believes that the national army has strong strategic early warning, so that the communist forces will be detected by the national army at the stage of preparing to commit force against Taiwan, which means there is no possibility of strategic surprise attack. The second is the joint pressure operations of the national army, with the ability to strike from the island across the sea against the targets of the southeastern garrison of mainland China. The third is that the entire joint air defense system of the National Army has a high operational capability, which poses a great danger to the incoming Communist air forces. The fourth is that the Communist forces believe that the current defense system of the national army is doing quite well. So at this stage, if the Chinese Communist Party wants to violate Taiwan by force, the actions of the national army will cause great harm to the communist army.
He said Chinese scholars also acknowledge that the current stage of the Communist army has many problems. Including the Communist forces in the key warfare force, the small warning range and low strike capability of the airship battle group; the serious lack of air refueling energy; and the insufficient coverage of marine surveillance and tracking. In terms of first-wave force projection energy requirements, it is estimated that there is a significant gap between about 4-6 brigades and the standard combined air and sea projection of about 12 to 15 brigades for the main force.
In addition, he said, Chinese scholars point to the lack of integrated joint warfare capabilities of the Communist forces. This includes the promulgation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Joint Operations Outline for trial use only on Nov. 7, 2020, and the need to improve basic systems such as the new generation of Joint Operations Orders and the Operational Readiness Regulations on a case-by-case basis. The tactical networks of the military services are not yet fully integrated. The personnel are not yet fully capable of modern joint warfare.
Jie Zhong pointed out that the key to whether or not the Chinese Communist Party will be able to commit a quick war against Taiwan is not how many planes, ships and missiles it has, but the most crucial thing is the overall logistics mobilization and speed. According to estimates by Chinese communist scholars, when the Chinese Communist Party invades Taiwan by force, it will need to carry out medium- and long-range delivery of hundreds of thousands of troops. This will consume a huge variety of materials of nearly 30 million tons, and more than 5.8 million tons of fuel. Synthetic brigade in the stage of landing on the island to fight, the daily demand for gasoline and diesel alone is estimated to be as high as 630,000 kilograms.
“But in addition to the huge amount of supplies, there is also the problem of the wounded to consider.” He said Chinese scholars estimate that the proportion of wounded in “maritime combat units” is about 13 to 17 percent, “air combat units” is about 8 to 11 percent, “land combat units” is about 5% to 8%, “missile combat troops” is about 4% to 6%, the total casualties are estimated to be at least about 120,000 people, the sick and wounded are estimated to be at least 60,000 people, the standing medicine is enough to cope with more than 400,000 troops in continuous combat for more than 30 days.
Jie Zhong said that with such a huge amount of supplies to be transported, the Communist Party estimates that 3,100 special trains, 1.1 million vehicles, 2,200 air sorties and at least 7,800 sea shipments would be needed, and it is even more difficult to imagine how complex the project would be to transport them to thousands of supply points quickly, timely, accurately and in an endless stream.
He said that the Communist Army is currently facing several problems in logistics mobilization, including the existing logistics support network chain does not match the strategic direction, so it is only in the past few years that the logistics mobilization support system has begun to be adjusted on a large scale; there is also the national defense mobilization system adjustment only started in the second half of 2018, and it has not been long since the Communist Army has formally implemented large-scale cross-sea strategic delivery exercises so far. Therefore, he believes that if the Communist Party wants to commit a forceful attack on Taiwan in the short term, unless Taiwan’s public morale is very fragile, the Communist Party will not be able to achieve the requirement of a quick war.
Su Ziyun pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party is the biggest promoter of the division of China. In addition to the establishment of the so-called People’s Republic of China in 1949, this year 2021 marks the centennial of the CCP’s founding and the 90th anniversary of the CCP’s splitting of China. The Chinese Communist Party established a regime called the Chinese Soviet Republic in 1931, which has its own constitution and went so far as to put Soviet leader Lenin on its currency. He warned that the “cognitive warfare” against the Chinese Communist Party must be noted, “the core of the problem is the value of democracy and freedom, that is, the choice of the way of life of the people of Taiwan”.
The Ministry of Defense think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, released its “2020 Communist Party Annual Report” in March, pointing out that “cognitive warfare” is the use of information and conflict tactics to achieve the purpose of changing thinking and thus behavior, “cognitive warfare The “cognitive warfare” can be conducted from official and unofficial, military and civilian sources, and is not limited to peacetime and wartime, and makes good use of the enemy, our side, international media and new media platforms. The CCP uses the pluralistic and divisive nature of democracy to create chaos and further deplete democratic society’s resources.
The CCP’s war-wolf diplomacy, military expansion, and totalitarian power over Hong Kong have prompted democratic countries to counteract them.
In addition, Su Ziyun said that the announcement of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait by the Communist Party’s eastern war zone is an attempt to intimidate Taiwan, but in fact it sends a strategic signal to the world that “China (the Communist Party) is a threat”, which in turn makes Beijing face a bigger dilemma. In fact, Beijing’s “dream of a strong nation” is collapsing, and its aggressive war-wolf diplomacy and military expansion, as well as its totalitarian tactics to curtail Hong Kong’s freedom, are contributing to the alarm and countermeasures of democratic countries.
“He pointed out that in addition to the tensions between India and Vietnam, even Russia, a so-called “blood brother”, has turned to India and even established a “security partnership” with Mongolia. He pointed out that in addition to India and Vietnam tensions, even the so-called “blood brother” Russia has turned to India, and even established a “security partnership” with Mongolia and sashayed joint military exercises pointing at Beijing. And at the operational level, there are also fears of problems, the Communist Party’s various new models of equipment have “initial operational capability” (IOC) is still in doubt, and the quality of performance has also appeared shortcomings, including combat armor vehicle protection, combat aircraft engine life is too short and other issues, are deadly indicators.
Su Ziyun said, most importantly, in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other pre-defined battlefields, belonging to the technology-intensive air and sea combat environment, the initial scale of the Chinese Communist Navy and Air Force, I’m afraid it is a technological warfare electromagnetic nightmare, battlefield detection and command chain fears will be completely dominated by the U.S. military.
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