The polls for the 2020 U.S. presidential election couldn’t have been more wrong: Nearly all polls released on the eve of voting day, November 3, showed Democratic presidential candidate Biden with about 10 percentage points more support than President Trump, who is running for re-election. But the results of the vote count on the night of the 3rd showed that Biden did not win big, even though votes were still being counted in some states and the final result would not have been a big win for either party. Experts point out that this is a repeat of the 2016 election where polls underestimated Trump’s support, and in the end, no matter who wins, the polls will be the loser.
ABC and Washington Post pre-election polls showed Biden leading by as much as 17 points in Wisconsin, and the results of the canvassing process showed Trump and Biden neck and neck, with Trump leading 49.3 percent to Biden’s 49 percent at one point.
Quinnipik University’s pre-election poll showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio, with Trump winning both states by 3 and 8 points, respectively. The Emerson College and Quinnipiac University polls also showed Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in Texas, but Trump won.
Pollster Kahaley points out that polling companies ignore the fact that respondents say what they want to hear, rather than what they really think. I never assume that what people say is what they really think,” he said.
Kaputin, another pollster, said that “shy” Trump supporters may well determine the outcome of the election. Just like in 2016, Trump supporters seem to be shy and will come out to vote on voting day, but they usually don’t make their intentions known.
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