China’s aggressive foreign and security policy in the Indo-Pacific region has sparked a growing backlash. The regional powers in the Indo-Pacific: Japan, India and Australia, among others, are taking active steps to balance China’s power in the region.
These countries are getting closer to the U.S. position on dealing with China. Analysts point out that it is China’s approach that is pushing these countries into the U.S. camp. The growing resistance could ultimately affect China’s global influence and the global leadership it has been striving to claim.
Australia’s relationship with China continues to deteriorate
Australia’s relationship with China continues to deteriorate. China announced on Thursday (May 6) that it would “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the Strategic Economic Dialogue mechanism with Australia. China has made no secret of the fact that all this is related to Australia’s recent decision to stop several projects with China. A statement issued by China’s National Development and Reform Commission in response to the decision said that “certain elements of the Australian federal government have launched a series of initiatives to disrupt normal exchanges and cooperation between the two countries based on cold war thinking and ideological bias.”
In late April, the Australian government announced the cancellation of two agreements signed between Victoria and China to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, and on May 3, Australia’s new defense minister, Peter Dutton, said the government had begun a new security review of China Lanqiao Group’s lease agreement for the Port of Darwin in Northern Australia. The government has begun a new security review of China Lanqiao’s lease agreement for the Darwin port in North Australia. Some media outlets have suggested that the agreement could be forced to be cancelled on Australia’s national security grounds.
Dutton also said in April that the possibility of conflict with China over Taiwan “should not be underestimated. He also said Australia would work with allies in the region to try to maintain peace.
In addition to Defense Department officials, other Australian officials have become increasingly “hawkish” in their approach to China. Australian Home Affairs Secretary General Mike Pezzullo reminded democracies that the possibility of war is increasing and that liberal democracies need to prepare for it and seek peace at a time of rising global tensions.
The growing assertiveness of Australian politicians and military figures toward China is linked to Beijing’s diplomatic and economic coercion of Australia since last year.
Some Chinese netizens say Australia is a “testing ground” for China’s strategic diplomatic turnaround. This is not only to target Australia, but also to send a message to other countries.
China-Australia relations have deteriorated since 2018, when Australia banned Chinese tech firm Huawei from building its 5G network, and then again in 2020, when Australia called for an international investigation into the source of the new coronavirus. China has taken a series of economic “punitive measures” against Australia. These include restrictions on imports of certain products and punitive tariffs on industries such as wine, lobster, barley and coal mining.
James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, said in an interview with the Voice of America that the Australian federal government’s cancellation of the Belt and Road agreement was also meant to send a strong message to Beijing. That is, “we are not afraid to tear ourselves apart at any time, at any event, in any way, and we are not afraid of China’s reaction.”
He also argued that China’s economic coercive measures have actually pushed Australia further into the U.S. camp. He said, “In recent years, the United States has clearly positioned itself as a strategic competitor to China and will of course seek to secure alliances and cooperation with countries against China. It is at this time that China has again unleashed frequent hostility toward Australia, even actual economic sanctions, which has clearly pushed Australia into the U.S. camp.”
Given Australia’s geographic location, he said, it neither shares a border conflict with China as India does, nor a maritime dispute as Japan does because of its proximity to China, and really does not need to explicitly choose sides.
The Australian government also has serious concerns about human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The Australian government believes that the Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang have suffered serious human rights abuses. However, Australia’s parliament has not yet recognized China’s gross human rights abuses in Xinjiang as “genocide,” as its allies, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, have done.
New Zealand Says Differences with China Growing
Australia’s neighbor, New Zealand, is the only country in the “Five Eyes Alliance” (an organization formed by Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States to share military and secret intelligence) that is currently in good standing with China and has not used the word “genocide” in relation to China’s practices in Xinjiang. “. However, the New Zealand Parliament unanimously declared on May 5 that serious human rights abuses had been committed against Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang region.
Communist Party President Xi Jinping and New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern meet at the Great Hall of the People on April 1, 2019.
New Zealand had refused to implement a tough policy towards China, as several other allies have done. This has even led other allies to question New Zealand’s “fear of criticizing China.
New Zealand’s foreign minister said Friday that she wanted to build a more mature relationship with China. She said the relationship should not be limited to bilateral trade relations, but should also leave room and space for differences, especially on human rights issues.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (Jacinda Ardern) said a few days ago that the differences between New Zealand and China are becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile as Beijing’s role in the world continues to grow and change.
India “unlikely to see China as a friendly neighbor anymore”
The latest reports say India has been suspending the import of Chinese wifi modules for several months, causing major manufacturers such as Dell, HP, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Lenovo to delay the launch of their products in India.
The Indian telecom ministry’s May 4 announcement to the public also showed that Chinese telecom companies Huawei and ZTE were not approved to participate in 5G communication experiments with Indian telecom operators. Although Indian officials did not explicitly prohibit the use of Huawei and ZTE telecom equipment and technology, they were effectively excluded from the trials.
On May 1, a tweet posted on the official microblog of the Central Political and Legal Commission’s news website, @ChinaChangan.com, caused a backlash among Indian netizens, and even netizens around the world. They called China callous and ruthless.
The tweet juxtaposed a photo of a Chinese rocket preparing to lift off with a photo of an Indian cremation woodpile hit by the new virus, and used the caption “China lighting a fire vs. India lighting a fire” in an attempt to highlight the failure of Indian democracy and the success of China.
The clashes between Indian and Chinese troops on the disputed border between the two countries last year, which resulted in the deaths of soldiers on both sides, still cast a shadow over India-China relations.
Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said in an interview with the Voice of America that India can no longer see China as a “friendly neighbor” because of the border conflict.
Last August, in the wake of the Sino-Indian conflict, an Indian poll showed that nearly 60 percent of Indians were willing to go to war to resolve the border dispute with China. 90 percent of Indians supported a permanent ban on various Chinese cell phone applications and the termination of contracts with Chinese companies. The Indian government announced last June that it had banned 59 Chinese applications, including well-known Chinese social networking software Jitterbug and WeChat, Alibaba’s UC browser and others, citing national security concerns.
China has offered support and help as India’s new crown epidemic worsens, but the Indian side has reportedly not decided so far whether to accept China’s help.
Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, “How Did China Fail? Luke Patey, author of “How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions,” said: “The conflict between the two countries on the Himalayan border has really destroyed All hope that the two countries could become regional partners. …… Since then, India has shaken off its initial hesitancy and increased its engagement with the quadripartite talks mechanism.”
Japan’s fears about China began more than 10 years ago
Recently, Sino-Japanese relations have seen new friction over a controversial tweet by Chinese Communist Party Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian. On his personal Twitter account, Zhao Lijian posted a satirical illustration modified from the iconic Japanese ukiyo-e print “Kanagawa Surfari” to criticize Japan’s decision to discharge nuclear wastewater into the sea. This drew protests from Japan and demands that the post be deleted.
On April 17, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga issued a joint statement after talks with U.S. President Joe Biden, which touched on almost all of China’s “core interests.
The statement expressed concern about the South China Sea, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and stressed the importance of peace in the Taiwan Strait.
In addition, the statement criticized China’s behavior as “contrary to the rules-based international order, including economic and other forms of coercion,” and the two countries recognized the importance of “deterrence” to maintain regional peace and stability.
On April 27, Japan released its diplomatic blueprint. In the blue paper, Japan made it clear that it would strengthen cooperation with the United States and other Western allies to curb China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and join the international community in strongly condemning the Chinese Communist Party’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. In this diplomatic blue paper, Japan for the first time referred to China as a “strong concern” for the security of the international community. The blue paper continues last year’s position that Taiwan is an “important partner and friend” and supports Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly.
However, analysts say Japan’s concern and defense against China’s rise began as early as 2010. That year, China’s annual economic output surpassed Japan’s for the first time, making it the world’s second-largest economy.
The growing self-confidence of the Chinese, their rising international status and growing nationalism are all worrisome to Japan, Shihoko Goto, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center, a U.S. think tank, said Wednesday at a seminar organized by the Institute for Project 2049, a U.S. think tank.
Japan’s position is slowly evolving, not in direct confrontation with China, but rather focused on developing strength and building numbers,” she said. …… build alliances to counteract China’s regional threats …… and ensure regional stability and order.”
In fact, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s actions were even earlier. 2007, when he visited India during his first term, Shinzo Abe first proposed the formation of an “arc of freedom and prosperity” with democratic countries such as Japan, India, the United States and Australia to counter the Chinese threat. December 2012, Shinzo Abe, who became Prime Minister again, proposed In December 2012, Shinzo Abe, who had become Prime Minister again, proposed the idea of a “Diamond of Democracy and Security in Asia,” which still did not receive a response from the United States. The two ideas of Shinzo Abe should be the prototype of the later “quadrilateral security dialogue mechanism” between the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
In 2017, the Quadripartite Security Dialogue was reactivated after years of silence as China’s military strength and increasingly aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific region increased, and it has received special attention, with some calling it the “Asian version of NATO. Some have called it the “Asian version of NATO.
On March 12, 2021, under the auspices of President Biden, the Quadripartite Security Dialogue held its first summit-level talks. Analysis suggests that the elevation of the Quadripartite Security Dialogue and its coordinated action is largely thanks to Beijing.
According to Wilson Center Senior Fellow Shiboko Goto, Japan has done more than that to defend itself against China’s regional threats. After the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan exercised its leadership in evolving the TPP into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), ensuring that the other 11 countries co-signed the agreement and, as a result, securing the trade order in the Asia-Pacific region.
Today, the CPTPP has a seat reserved for the United States. China has also expressed interest in joining again, but analysts say that the CPTPP threshold remains a bit high for China.
Growing Discontent with China in the Philippines and Vietnam
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has adopted a strategy of friendship with China since taking office, but recent Chinese efforts to send hundreds of ships into resource-rich disputed waters have escalated tensions between the two countries.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s legal adviser first warned that the incident could harm relations between the two countries and lead to “unnecessary hostility. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines as a result. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Rodrigo Lochin even tweeted in foul language on May 2, asking the Chinese government and militia vessels to leave the waters the Philippines claims as its sovereign, although he later apologized.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
The gathering of a large number of Chinese “maritime militia ships” moored in the disputed waters of the South China Sea near the Philippines has also raised concerns in the United States. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed the issue with Philippine Defense Secretary Lorenzana in April. The two also discussed measures to deepen defense cooperation, including “enhancing the perception of threat posture in the South China Sea.
In the latest news, the Philippine government rejected China’s ban on a fishing moratorium in the disputed waters of the South China Sea and encouraged Philippine fishing vessels to continue fishing in Philippine territorial waters.
The Philippine South China Sea Task Force said in a statement on May 4 that “the fishing ban does not apply to our fishermen.”
Vietnam’s relations with China have been relatively quiet in recent days. However, a report released in March by the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative, part of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said Vietnam has deployed military equipment on islands under its control in the South China Sea over the past two years and is already organizing any attacks from China.
China Fails to Get Other Countries to Accept Its Leadership
Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, summed up the current situation facing China this way: “The more China advances its own belligerent agenda toward regional countries, the more it triggers resistance from other countries. China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project already has many problems. The geopolitical map of the Indo-Pacific region is becoming more solid, the Quadripartite Security Dialogue mechanism is revitalized, and more and more regional countries are becoming more engaged and acting in a more coordinated manner.
He noted that a country’s strength refers not only to a country’s intrinsic capacity, but also to a country’s ability to get other countries to accept its leadership. Although China has risen in the past decade, he said, it still does not have the ability to make others accept its leadership, let alone global leadership, and regional leadership has not been achieved either.
Power is as important as a country’s innate ability and its ability to make others accept its leadership. China has undoubtedly risen in the last decade, but it has not succeeded in getting others to accept or even claim claims to regional (or even global) leadership.
How Did China Fail? China’s (continued) rise is not necessarily guaranteed,” says Patti, author of “The World Tops Back China’s Global Ambitions. It is not predetermined. The extent of its rise depends on its global relationships and its relationships with other powers. My purpose in writing this book is to point out that these challenges (to China) will ultimately undermine China’s influence. Even if China becomes the world’s largest economy in the next decade, or less, these challenges will make China much less influential in terms of influencing the foreign and security policies of other countries.”
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