Analysts believe that the U.S. announcement of a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan this year will deal a blow to Chinese Communist Party interests in the Asian country, and that Beijing will have to deal with the security and economic challenges following the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
President Joe Biden announced last month that the U.S. was completing its withdrawal from Afghanistan on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. At least 2,500 U.S. troops are currently deployed in the 9,600-strong NATO mission in Afghanistan.
Analysts say the Chinese Communist Party must once again weigh its strategy in Afghanistan as U.S. security forces withdraw. The volatile security situation could not only challenge the CCP’s economic interests in the country, but could also threaten its border security.
Many analysts believe that it will be difficult for the Afghan government to maintain a stable political situation in the country after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Currently, government forces mainly control the major cities, while the Taliban are spread out in the wider countryside, posing a considerable threat to Afghan security forces.
On May 1, the same day U.S. and NATO forces began withdrawing, the Taliban captured a military base in Ghazni province in southern Afghanistan, capturing several government soldiers and killing several others.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a think tank, told the Voice of America, “It is still unclear whether there will be a power vacuum in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. forces, and whether the Taliban and the government will be able to talk to each other. But overall, it seems that Chinese policy circles are more pessimistic about the near future of Afghanistan.”
Interests blocked
China and Afghanistan border each other at the eastern end of the narrow Wakhan Corridor, with a border line of only about 90 kilometers. Over the past 20 years, the Chinese Communist Party has developed a number of lucrative deals there, drawing on the relative stability maintained by international security forces.
Targeting Afghanistan’s energy and natural resources, the CCP has become the largest foreign investor in Afghanistan. Chinese state-owned companies bid $3 billion for the rights to mine the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan, considered one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper fields.
In 2016, the Chinese Communist Party extended its network of “Belt and Road” projects to Afghanistan, with the opening of a freight railroad between China’s Jiangsu province and the northern Afghan port city of Hailaton, and the construction of fiber-optic cables and other infrastructure in the country. Afghanistan is also a member of the Chinese Communist Party-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Notably, the presence of Uighur groups operating in Afghanistan is also a reason for the CCP’s increased commitment. Last December, Afghan intelligence authorities said they had intercepted a Chinese Communist spy ring that was tracking and targeting Uighurs in Afghanistan.
Elizabeth Wishnick, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said China is concerned that Afghanistan will increasingly become a base for Uighur groups to conduct cross-border activities.
She told Voice of America, “With no security guarantees in Afghanistan, the Chinese Communist government may have more reason to continue its repressive measures against Xinjiang.”
Sending troops to Afghanistan?
Some analyses have suggested that the CCP could send troops to Afghanistan if the security situation poses a threat to the CCP’s borders. But experts interviewed by the Voice of America say that is unlikely to happen.
Sun Yun said, “The best way to protect the CCP’s border security is for Afghanistan to achieve internal stability, and if that is not possible, the CCP will strengthen border control and internal defense and control, and the possibility of a long-term military presence inside Afghanistan is slim.”
She noted that Afghanistan is known as the “graveyard of empires” for the Chinese Communist Party, and that the British, Soviet Union and the U.S. have fallen on their faces, and the Chinese Communist Party does not want to repeat that mistake.
The Communist Party’s military presence in Afghanistan has been limited. It currently has a number of private security forces in Afghanistan to protect its interests there, as well as some border security forces in Tajikistan, its territory.
Vishnick said the Chinese Communist Party is more likely to join a peacekeeping mission sent by the United Nations if the security situation intensifies.
A Chinese Communist Party military presence in Afghanistan would be a wake-up call to India, which has so far provided much more aid to Afghanistan than the Chinese Communist Party,” she said. Russia may also not welcome an increased CCP military presence in Afghanistan, let alone in Central Asia.”
Communist Party officials have repeatedly denied stationing troops in Afghanistan, and the Chinese Ministry of Defense only said in 2018 that it was supporting defense and counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, but provided no details. By comparison, the U.S. has spent more than a trillion dollars in military investment in Afghanistan over the past 20 years.
Two factions mediate
Experts believe that after the U.S. withdrawal, the Chinese Communist Party is most likely to adopt a two-faction balanced strategy of staying engaged with both the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Michael Rubin, a resident fellow at the think tank American Enterprise Institute and a former U.S. Defense Department official, told the Voice of America, “The CCP will not make value judgments …… Instead, the CCP will simply work with both sides and bribe whoever they deem necessary to get what they want.”
The CCP’s economic investment in Afghanistan gives it leverage, and the Afghan government will likely continue to have good relations with the CCP to try to rebuild its economy in the midst of an endless war, which will preserve existing Chinese interests in Afghanistan.
At the same time, the CCP has been consolidating its relationship with the Taliban, which, like the Afghan government, needs to develop its economy in the areas it controls. Beijing has some experience in organizing peace talks in Afghanistan, and in 2019 a Taliban delegation met with Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing.
The Communist Party’s deep ties with Pakistan have also traditionally been seen as an important channel for exerting influence on internal Afghan politics. Pakistani intelligence has been accused of maintaining ties with the Taliban.
Mark N. Katz, a professor of political science at George Mason University, told the Voice of America, “If the Taliban do overthrow the government in Kabul, the CCP will try to work with the Taliban in the hope that they will prove to be corrupt and thus can be bought off.”
Whether the CCP’s economic leverage can balance the Afghan parties remains to be tested, but there is already worrying news coming as the U.S. announces its withdrawal. The Taliban refused to attend a U.S.- and Communist Party-led peace conference in Istanbul on April 16. A U.N. report confirmed that civilian deaths in Afghanistan increased by nearly 30 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Katz noted that if the Taliban’s violence threatens the Chinese Communist Party’s interests, the Communist Party could be forced to fight back and the situation could eventually spiral out of control.
If the Taliban stick to their jihadi roots and support jihadists in neighboring countries, China may seek cooperation to contain them,” he said. However, all these countries will try to put the primary responsibility for containing the Taliban on the other side. The result may be that no one, including China, will be able to deal effectively with the Taliban.”
The Pentagon said May 6 that the withdrawal is still on track. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that from his career military point of view, a Taliban victory and the fall of Kabul are not automatically a foregone conclusion. He said, “I’ve personally witnessed …… Afghan security forces are capable of fighting.”
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