Despite the massive military build-up in China (CCP), there are a number of weaknesses that are difficult to overcome. One of them is geography, as disclosed by a former U.S. military officer. Experts believe that when the Chinese Communist Party starts a war, Japan will play a key role in controlling the maritime choke points.
“Tom Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer and part-time senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told the Nikkei Asian Review, “When you look at Chinese submarine bases, there’s a fair amount of shallow water around each one [and] their submarines have to go through that. submarines have to go through those shallow waters to get to the deeper waters.” Submarines are only nearly impossible to detect if they enter deep water.
In contrast, Japanese and Taiwanese submarines have direct access to deep waters, a “luxury” that the Chinese Communist Party could not even ask for. A quick look at Google Earth shows that China’s coast is surrounded by light blue, meaning it is surrounded by shallow waters, while the eastern coasts of Taiwan and Japan are dark blue in color.
If the Chinese Communist Navy wants to enter the high seas from offshore, it will inevitably have to pass through different choke points and straits between the first island chain, Shugart said. “This will provide opportunities for its adversaries – the U.S. and our allies’ submarine forces. They can be monitored more closely and attempted to intercept them if we get involved in a conflict, or if a conflict is about to break out.”
The first island chain extends from the Japanese archipelago and the Nansei Islands in the north, to Taiwan in the middle, and to the Philippines in the south.
Japan could play a major role in controlling the maritime choke point
Jeffrey Hornung, a political scientist at Rand Corp, a U.S. think tank, said controlling the maritime choke points could be one of Japan’s most important contributions in a potential conflict with the Chinese Communist Party.
President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga emphasized “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” in a joint statement following the April 16 summit, the first time since 1969 that the U.S.-Japanese leaders have mentioned Taiwan. This has sparked much discussion about how the two allies would work together if peace in the Taiwan Strait is broken.
Last Friday (April 30), U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivered his first major policy address since taking office. He said the U.S. needs to prepare for potential future conflicts that are very different from the “old wars” that have consumed the Defense Department for so long. Austin introduced a new concept of “integrated deterrence” (Integrated Deterrence) and asked allies to “work together” to prepare for future wars.
Japan’s Nansei Islands chain extends from the southernmost tip of Kyushu to the north of Taiwan. It consists of smaller island groups, including the Osumi, Tokara, Amami, Okinawa, Miyako and Yaeyama chains. In April, the Communist aircraft carrier Liaoning and five frigates crossed the Miyako Strait, a 250-kilometer-wide waterway between Okinawa and Miyako, before the Liaoning headed south to Taiwan.
“Japan’s role should be to control the choke points,” Hornung said, “and if you look at the Nancy Islands, there are so many choke points that, combined with the submarine capabilities and defensive capabilities of the (Japanese) Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan could completely block them, which would force the Chinese (Communist Navy) to either go all the way around to Taiwan or go directly into the battle space in the East China Sea, and the U.S. and Japan could plan for that and take control of the battle situation.
The more Japan puts its efforts into defense, either with anti-ship cruise missiles or P-3C maritime patrol aircraft to find Chinese (Communist Party of China) submarines or to annihilate them, the more the U.S. military can free up resources for combat, he said.
Shugart, who has 25 years of submarine combat experience, said Japan’s diesel-electric submarines are particularly well suited for such missions.
“Our allies such as Japan and Australia have diesel-electric submarine fleets that would be very useful in the defense of the choke points.” He said.
War in Taiwan at stake for Japan’s security
Japan’s security would also be at risk should the Communist Party of China go to war against Taiwan. Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. and Japan could build an alliance because of the geographic location and the great risk that a Chinese Communist Party action to commit Taiwan would also pose to the Japanese people. Kyodo News quoted informed sources as saying last month that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is increasingly causing concern in Japan. The Japanese government has begun formal discussions on laws related to unexpected developments in Taiwan.
According to the report, the Japanese government will discuss various situations and the role of the Self-Defense Forces, such as “important impact situations,” “existential crisis situations,” and “forceful attack situations” in which Japan is directly attacked. The government will try to strengthen the necessary defense capabilities by sorting them out.
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